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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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SD said:
I'll take whatever falls, approaching 2 years since I saw snow that wasn't a random few flakes mixed with sleet or a stray flurry. Starting to get desperate

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Most on here are desperate. When half the board hasn't seen more the a flake in 2-4 years its every man for themselves.
 
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I thought the GFS (FV3) was supposed to be upgraded? Why is it still having these wild runs? Here it is almost 2020 and these models can't even get a good idea what could happen in the 5-7 day window sometimes. Heck, my predictions can be more accurate than these models lol. I know models aren't going to be exact, but good gracious they can change on every single run even within 7 day window.

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WxWatch said:
I thought the GFS (FV3) was supposed to be upgraded? Why is it still having these wild runs? Here it is almost 2020 and these models can't even get a good idea what could happen in the 5-7 day window sometimes. Heck, my predictions can be more accurate than these models lol. I know models aren't going to be exact, but good gracious they can change on every single run even within 7 day window.

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The good thing is, most of the time, you can pretty accurately predict how they're going to change.
 
WxWatch said:
I thought the GFS (FV3) was supposed to be upgraded? Why is it still having these wild runs? Here it is almost 2020 and these models can't even get a good idea what could happen in the 5-7 day window sometimes. Heck, my predictions can be more accurate than these models lol. I know models aren't going to be exact, but good gracious they can change on every single run even within 7 day window.
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:oops:
 
WxWatch said:
I thought the GFS (FV3) was supposed to be upgraded? Why is it still having these wild runs? Here it is almost 2020 and these models can't even get a good idea what could happen in the 5-7 day window sometimes. Heck, my predictions can be more accurate than these models lol. I know models aren't going to be exact, but good gracious they can change on every single run even within 7 day window.

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lmao ok
 
WxWatch said:
I thought the GFS (FV3) was supposed to be upgraded? Why is it still having these wild runs? Here it is almost 2020 and these models can't even get a good idea what could happen in the 5-7 day window sometimes. Heck, my predictions can be more accurate than these models lol. I know models aren't going to be exact, but good gracious they can change on every single run even within 7 day window.

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If the pattern gets established to allow enough blocking to develop it will be easier for you and the models. Otherwise it's a coin flip trying to figure out where anything frozen will develop.
 
RobertRath said:
Hope he’s right about the weather, but I thought the same thing.
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Every time I see a post with his name in it, I just cringe, like it’s DT or JB, or the October snow index guy!
 
Rain Cold said:
The good thing is, most of the time, you can pretty accurately predict how they're going to change.
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And that's what makes your prediction more accurate. You basically know what's going to happen from predicting how they're going to change - if that makes *sense.
Shawn said:
I want to see someone outperform the number crunching of a weather model.

That would absolutely make my day.
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Last week I mentioned that there would be snow (before any model showed it) across places like Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Even though, I was off a bit on the placement.

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