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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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CyclonicFury

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During the winter, both Accuweather and TWC seem to like to show days in the long range with a high around 45-50 with "snow showers in the morning." However you almost never see them predict a legit winter storm in the long range.
 

NoSnowATL

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Kirk Mellish isn’t impressed yet so I won’t be, even thought he is l bad at predicting total amount he is really good at sniffing out storms before others.


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Rain Cold

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Speaking of trains, Choo choo, all aboard the hype train! Next stop, State college PA. See Roberts post on FB! Can’t get it on here
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WxSouth
3 hrs ·
That tendency for western North American ridging keeps on showing up, so this ups the ante for a Major Arctic Outbreak soon for atleast part of the central and eastern USA. Not sure yet how much of the severe cold makes it this far south--its complicated, and there's major conflicts with some things we look at. All in all, very interesting though, and flies in the face of most forecasts that were going very warm in the lower 48 states , precisely at this time frame. I'm talking about the timeframe of about 7 to 14 days out. The big picture from European and GFS models (Canadian too), all have that tall ridge, meaning cold air dumps straight south toward the US, eradicating any warm Southeast ridging any time soon. Also, the jetstream looks active, with moisture galore wanting to come east toward the Cold air.
Image: European Model 240 hour surface pressure pattern
 

Rain Cold

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It's quiet as a mouse over there in the December thread. Was hoping to get an interesting GFS run to fire everyone up again. Lol 384 heading for glory though. haha
At this point, I just want to see a consistently favorable pattern for cold lock in. In the meantime, if we can get all riled up about a few fantasy storms, that's just gravy! I always like to see good LR deep south snowstorms. It means we are at least in the game.
 

Tarheel1

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Here's the text:




WxSouth
3 hrs ·
That tendency for western North American ridging keeps on showing up, so this ups the ante for a Major Arctic Outbreak soon for atleast part of the central and eastern USA. Not sure yet how much of the severe cold makes it this far south--its complicated, and there's major conflicts with some things we look at. All in all, very interesting though, and flies in the face of most forecasts that were going very warm in the lower 48 states , precisely at this time frame. I'm talking about the timeframe of about 7 to 14 days out. The big picture from European and GFS models (Canadian too), all have that tall ridge, meaning cold air dumps straight south toward the US, eradicating any warm Southeast ridging any time soon. Also, the jetstream looks active, with moisture galore wanting to come east toward the Cold air.
Image: European Model 240 hour surface pressure pattern
I need pictures!
 

Robert West

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At this point, I just want to see a consistently favorable pattern for cold lock in. In the meantime, if we can get all riled up about a few fantasy storms, that's just gravy! I always like to see good LR deep south snowstorms. It means we are at least in the game.
Me too, the LR storms are most of the time fantasy but the last couple weeks, we haven't seen them at all. Atleast they are beginning to show up again. Just need to lock some of the ingredients in like you said.
 

Tarheel1

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Jiminy Christmas, I’m so sick of these dank, cloudy, medium-cold days! They suck and if it’s not gonna snow, give me back my October 100s and endless days of sunshine!!😤
 
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