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Pattern Fab Feb

GSP had 0.48” at the most recent METAR. We’re somewhere around 0.4”
I’ve got a stream of water through my front yard. Sump pump has also been flipped to the on position. Drought taking a small but meaningful hit today
 
Had to come visit some folks after church up in rural hall, king. Sleet on bottom of snow from several weeks ago is fighting for dear life in the rain today. Stuff is amazing, how long it can hang.

View attachment 194166
We still have plenty of piles in the parking lots, but no more in the shady areas. I still have ice on the pond next to me, but I would expect that to go later today.
 
Not sure I get this look from GFS with surface temps in the mid 30s…
Verbatim, it's a rate-driven slop storm. All things being equal, if the Arctic high were a bit further SE, it would be a legit slop fest.

Snow in the SE in this time frame is a long shot, but it's the only shot we have atm.
 
c2a4f75b5e884e969de1d5a0e09c8310.png

About where we want it?


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This winter just keeps having tricks up its sleeve, models consistently showing a 1040+ HP in late Feb is absolutely insane. Lots of energy flying around too. Gives us at least an attempt to make something work, short window though so we gotta thread the needle again.
 
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No dry slot in RAL todayView attachment 194171
Of course that happens when it's just a cold rain. We do need the moisture and hope we can get at least an inch of rain out of this system. It's been a while since we've received anything approaching an inch of precipitation.
 
Probably because most assume that we will! Wouldn't be surprised if it happens next week. Models have been showing increasing support for that.
We will have freezes but winter weather after February 15 is not a thing anymore (outside the mountains) new norm with the patterns we get into this time of year now, trees blooming, grass growing, people planting their gardens, things you didn’t see until late March 20 years ago here. Even we had good snows into late March, one of our biggest snows was March 23rd 1968 we got 9 - 11 inches. You won’t get that February 23rd now. Wishing for snow this late in the year is just heartbreak. IMG_2604.jpeg
 
We will have freezes but winter weather after February 15 is not a thing anymore (outside the mountains) new norm with the patterns we get into this time of year now, trees blooming, grass growing, people planting their gardens, things you didn’t see until late March 20 years ago here. Even we had good snows into late March, one of our biggest snows was March 23rd 1968 we got 9 - 11 inches. You won’t get that February 23rd now. Wishing for snow this late in the year is just heartbreak. View attachment 194175
We literally just had a historic mid-February winter storm in TX/MS in 2021 with record cold, and a winter storm in late February in NC last year...
 
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