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Pattern Fab Feb

Mitch West said:
IMO, if there is any year we are gonna get a late February/March crusher, it’ll be this year. Cold bottled up is gonna crash South again at some point. Something wild will happen I think before we ride fully into Spring.
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Yeah as a warm weenie, this doesn’t exactly look ideal. For a late miracle snow though, this gives the slight tingles. Normally I wouldn’t bank on the CFS for a MJO forecast but it probably has a decent idea here, with a MJO orbit heading for the Americas sometime in mid March. We should also see NATL blocking intensify later on as -NAM moves down from the mid/upper trop. The seasonals already look block heavy this spring IMG_4167.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Yeah as a warm weenie, this doesn’t exactly look ideal. For a late miracle snow though, this gives the slight tingles. Normally I wouldn’t bank on the CFS for a MJO forecast but it probably has a decent idea here, with a MJO orbit heading for the Americas sometime in mid March. We should also see NATL blocking intensify later on as -NAM moves down from the mid/upper trop. The seasonals already look block heavy this spring View attachment 194128
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An idea generally supported by the bleaklies...at least showing cooler weather past mid-March. By then, it starts getting pretty hard to snow, but it would still be possible.
 
From, Robert!



Cold Pattern Is Ending
Spring Weather Bursts Forth Next Week....March Starts Warm in South and East
SOUTHERN SKIES
FEB 13, 2026
∙ PAID

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The last few weeks have certainly been cold, especially east of the Mississippi River. Every mile north and east of Tennessee, toward the MidAtlantic, Lakes and the Northeast gets progressively colder, but the Plains and Rockies have escaped the cold most of the Winter. Now, we are about to enter a flip in the pattern, where even the East will start to warm up fast. Already as we enter latter February, with an increasing sun angle, our normal temps are rising fast, so seeing the temperature departures increasing as well on the progs means the real world temps will soon take a big tick upward. With the oncoming higher sun angle, some moisture, some southwest winds and increasing dewpoints, it’s just a matter of time before the new grass cutting season is upon us.

Here’s the departures from normal mid Jan to mid Feb. Very below normal temps in the Southeast (esp east of the MS River). Having some 8 and 12 below normal is astounding for the heart of Winter. It has been brutally cold in the MidWest, Lakes and Northeast (not shown).

From Southeast Regional Climate Center




But all model guidance is showing the cold air rotating back west, to where we started this Winter around November. A cold Alaska and western Canada is coming, with flat Southeast ridging showing up in the means. This doesn’t mean we won’t get cold again though.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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