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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
It's snowing at the Olympics if anyone needs a fix haha
Late afternoon was downright chilly with breezy and 50s….delightful. My evening walk was very enjoyable in the near calm chill with mid 40s. Tomorrow will be a similarly lovely day. Saturday will be a little warmer (~upper 60s high), but with still nice low dewpoints. These are the types of days I dream about during the long monotonous hot and humid summers here.
I drove by a small, shaded, local pond here this evening and there’s still ice on much of the pond. Kind of amazing after two days in the 60s. Makes me wonder if the ice had gotten thick enough to be walkable during the cold spell?
Well we good for an inch plus of COLD rain up this way late Sat-Sun per all the Globals. Thankful for the rain, but would have preferred a slow soaking melted snowpack for better absorption. Actually this is a waste of a good track for mid Feb, just no cold air tap.
NBAcentel
Member
Machine learning mauler 2.0 
SnowNiner
Member
Jet retracted all to be danged. Anybody got any of those +EAMTs or pretty hogmolly charts hanging around?
Maybe it will keep retracting and move the ridge so far west we get a trough on the west coast.
SnowNiner
Member
Maybe it will keep retracting and move the ridge so far west we get a trough on the west coast.
Retrograded SE ridge into a +PNA. lol.
Why can't it just be a widespread swath of 1.5"+ QPF to make everyone happy for once
rburrel2
Member
Not a bad look. That’s how you can sneak a storm inside a bad pattern.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Yea Allan Huffman mentioned it this morning but said he won’t say much about it until he sees it on other models.
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We all know that operational runs showing a SE winter storm threat in fantasyland (near hour 240 in this case) are a dime a dozen. In the bigger picture, the big challenge to getting a significant SE winter storm late this month appears as of now to be the most -PNA period in Feb since way back in 2011:
Brandon10
Member
I have a feeling that we all are going to enjoy faux spring and when March 1 rolls around and we want it warm, we go back to the freezer.
I’ll be happy whenever a BN dominated pattern returns.
SnowNiner
Member
Agreed. I think this year is another good example to show the real need to have a western ridge/+PNA to get a storm in the SE. December we had a decent -NAO/-AO, but had very little to show for it (-PNA) in the south, as most of the cold stayed to the north, mid-atlantic/NE (and that was because of a great -WPO). Mid January we got the +PNA to cooperate and we were off and running.
PNA and the pacific rules the roost IMO when it comes to being in the game for a southern winter storm. Atlantic blocking keeps it south and keeps the high where it needs to be for the better details, but without the right pacific we're not even in the ballgame IMO.
SnowNiner
Member
This is exactly what I'm hoping for with my trip to the Hudson Valley NY March 5. Got to get a make up storm out of this for missing the Ontario Obliterator.
The stats that I’ve posted several times clearly back up a +PNA as having the strongest correlation to SE winter storms and a -NAO as having no better than a weak correlation.
PNA most important single index: Why?
# of big RDU/GSO storms/PNA:
- +PNA: 21; neutral PNA 10; -PNA: 7
- So, 3 times as many for +PNA vs -PNA
- Interestingly though, the strongest -PNA for one of these was the -1.1 for 2/12-13/2014. But that’s highly unusual as that’s the only one of the 38 storms with a PNA lower than -0.8.
- -NAO: 16; neutral NAO: 10; +NAO: 12
- So, -NAO slight ad. but much more balanced vs PNA
Fwiw, here’s the latest GEFS NAO prog:
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Roxboro-Moyock special. Next
Look at how the rain / snow line is bowing northwards to put all of Wake County in the green. Seems legit.
lexxnchloe
Member
Roanoke Rapids ripper
Literally a Moyock jackpot. Big hit for the Great Dismal Swamp. Surface temps suck but rates will overcome.
Stealing a storm in that day 8-12 period would feel good with the overall pattern being so blah
RollTide18
Member
I can see the chicken feather sized flakes from here
Some of our best snows fall with the 0c line north of Philadelphia
rburrel2
Member
This has potential. Especially when the euro ai is overly amped up.
A couple weeks ago my house looked like beech mountain, now I’m out here shooting bball in basketball shorts and a t-shirt. What a life
That’s one thing that’s so interesting about winter, the season with the greatest temperature variations. Compare that to the relatively monotonous summer with hot/humid most days.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Now that winter weather chances are wrapped for the season outside of the high country, the focus is on some late seasons s snows in western NC
Come on up when it comes
Euro Ensembles :
Come on up when it comes
Euro Ensembles :
Bigedd09
Member
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They don't call it Happy Hour for nothing. The system needs to trend south for many of us, but it's getting a bit interesting
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Quite ridiculous to speak in absolutes like that. It’s February 13th
NBAcentel
Member
Don’t forget the “it will be hard to get snow outside the mountains call back in late Dec/early Jan based off a null phase MJO” see how that one worked out
IMO, if there is any year we are gonna get a late February/March crusher, it’ll be this year. Cold bottled up is gonna crash South again at some point. Something wild will happen I think before we ride fully into Spring.
J1C1111
Member
I really like your thinking Mitch. I'm all in till the bitter end.
lexxnchloe
Member
Another almost
lexxnchloe
Member
