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Pattern Fab Feb

Brent said:
Heading near 80 degrees today! What a winter it's been other than 10 days in January

I still see no sign of any cold air either
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The West (well west of you) has had virtually no winter to this point/near the warmest on record. You‘ve been mild on many days as you said although not nearly as mild as in a place like Denver. So, you’ve been fortunate in that regard. And if unlike me you don’t like cold unless there’s snow, you’ve had a pretty darn good combo!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found nothing of interest on the models this morning. Somebody correct me, please!
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Whats the old post that always shows up when we are tracking:

Official Guidance says: We'll heres what it says this a.m.


Friday
A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
GaWx said:
The West (well west of you) has had virtually no winter to this point/near the warmest on record. You‘ve been mild on many days as you said although not nearly as mild as in a place like Denver. So, you’ve been fortunate in that regard. And if unlike me you don’t like cold unless there’s snow, you’ve had a pretty darn good combo!
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Yeah I mean we had our average snowfall at least... I was very shocked to discover that Amarillo has had half the snow we had and averages twice as much!!!

Granted some of the biggest snowstorms in the High Plains and Rockies have been in March and even April

Even here 4 of our 5 snowiest days on record are in March

But there's been no snow in March here since 2022
 
Brent said:
Yeah we need a big rain if we're not having winter. People are acting like the snow was a flood here haha we had a half inch of qpf. Like it didn't help the long term issues at all
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This is not gonna be reality: CFS 700 hours out, so boulder of salt. But all of us need twice this much to claw out of the hole we are in


1770646764042.png
 
Well had a cold cruise with a ship with no heat going out of Norfolk, so that was what it was. Great vacation time with family and friends, but hurts bad missing the storm of the decade in MBY. Oh well I guess. What an awesome two week stretch though for winter weather. Grateful.

Moving on, looks like February wants to February again. Next year hopefully nino actually ninos.

1770655207117.png
 
Remember the wind on Saturday? This is what it did! It destroyed the roof and knocked my weather station off the post! Luckily still running fine. I do have to get a replacement aemometer arm however.

I could not get the gazebo back up so had to tear it down upside down.

1000006102.jpg
 
I think warmth is legitimately coming this time, other then some wedge days here or there. some legit warmth showing up, especially with the MJO moving towards the maritime. Should get warmer as the ridge axis moves overhead/to our east, and if we are on the right side of boundary days and the ridge gets squished from from shortwave troughs, maybe even a 80 here or there.IMG_4116.pngIMG_4117.pngIMG_4119.png
You can see the developing strong MJO pulse around the IO/MC, this should develop a strong NPAC ridge with time, and I’d imagine it will eventually try to go poleward. How long that takes determines the longevity of the warmth. My concern for cold risks is the progression of the MJO back into the pacific into early March, and given the ridge wanting to go poleward towards Russia along with Urals ridging returning, you can start to see hints of +EAMT showing up towards late Feb with high pressure flooding Asia again. another thing is with the big -WPO regime, is we are loading up Canada with a lot of cold air again, if we get that -WPO ridge to cutoff, the momentum under it would speed up and whatever is out west/in western Canada, will dislodge east. Another thing to add in there is the upcoming SPV disruption will likely rear its head with blocking again in M/A, especially as the final warming event occurs.IMG_4121.pngIMG_4118.png
Also worth noting if we get a strong MJO propagation into the pacific again this March which is looking pretty likely, we likely at the very least have a shot at a moderate-strong El Niño later this year/early next year
 
NBAcentel said:
I think warmth is legitimately coming this time, other then some wedge days here or there. some legit warmth showing up, especially with the MJO moving towards the maritime. Should get warmer as the ridge axis moves overhead/to our east, and if we are on the right side of boundary days and the ridge gets squished from from shortwave troughs, maybe even a 80 here or there.View attachment 193956View attachment 193957View attachment 193958
You can see the developing strong MJO pulse around the IO/MC, this should develop a strong NPAC ridge with time, and I’d imagine it will eventually try to go poleward. How long that takes determines the longevity of the warmth. My concern for cold risks is the progression of the MJO back into the pacific into early March, and given the ridge wanting to go poleward towards Russia along with Urals ridging returning, you can start to see hints of +EAMT showing up towards late Feb with high pressure flooding Asia again. another thing is with the big -WPO regime, is we are loading up Canada with a lot of cold air again, if we get that -WPO ridge to cutoff, the momentum under it would speed up and whatever is out west/in western Canada, will dislodge east. Another thing to add in there is the upcoming SPV disruption will likely rear its head with blocking again in M/A, especially as the final warming event occurs.View attachment 193960View attachment 193959
Also worth noting if we get a strong MJO propagation into the pacific again this March which is looking pretty likely, we likely at the very least have a shot at a moderate-strong El Niño later this year/early next year
Click to expand...
Just for fun, I was looking at the GFS and AIGFS a little while ago (both are similar), and the pattern generally progresses in that direction. Your ridge shoots toward the pole and Canada reloads with very cold air. We even have an arctic shot punching into the East, prior to this frame.

Obviously, this is just an Op run, but I think this is where we're eventually heading. I do not think winter is over, and I do think we will be tracking another winter storm in a couple of weeks or so.

aigfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

aigfs_T850a_nhem_65.png
 
NBAcentel said:
I think warmth is legitimately coming this time, other then some wedge days here or there. some legit warmth showing up, especially with the MJO moving towards the maritime. Should get warmer as the ridge axis moves overhead/to our east, and if we are on the right side of boundary days and the ridge gets squished from from shortwave troughs, maybe even a 80 here or there.View attachment 193956View attachment 193957View attachment 193958
You can see the developing strong MJO pulse around the IO/MC, this should develop a strong NPAC ridge with time, and I’d imagine it will eventually try to go poleward. How long that takes determines the longevity of the warmth. My concern for cold risks is the progression of the MJO back into the pacific into early March, and given the ridge wanting to go poleward towards Russia along with Urals ridging returning, you can start to see hints of +EAMT showing up towards late Feb with high pressure flooding Asia again. another thing is with the big -WPO regime, is we are loading up Canada with a lot of cold air again, if we get that -WPO ridge to cutoff, the momentum under it would speed up and whatever is out west/in western Canada, will dislodge east. Another thing to add in there is the upcoming SPV disruption will likely rear its head with blocking again in M/A, especially as the final warming event occurs.View attachment 193960View attachment 193959
Also worth noting if we get a strong MJO propagation into the pacific again this March which is looking pretty likely, we likely at the very least have a shot at a moderate-strong El Niño later this year/early next year
Click to expand...

With the following strong -PNA forecast (goes out through Feb 23rd) starting this weekend and although Feb 12-15 looks cold up your way, it’s going to be hard to not have a solid mild period in the SE afterward prior to the hoped cooldown during the last 5-6 days of Feb/early March:
IMG_8112.png

Also, AO and NAO are forecasted to rise sharply:
IMG_8113.png

IMG_8114.png
 
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