Pattern Fab Feb

[GeorgiaGirl]

Hate to say it but I grew up 2 hours west of ATL and most years were pretty much snowless as a kid

I think y'all paid for 93 for a long time haha maybe still are

Probably paying for the Gulf storm last year now. Those things don't come around very often over there unfortunately

Idk for sure because I don't have the maps in front of me, but the Sandy Springs area in ATL may well be perfect positioning to whiff on all three of 1/10/25, 1/21/25, and then Jan 31st this year.

The south metro did get hit pretty solidly though.

Edit: just looked and honestly, I doubt that Sandy Springs was shut out with 1/10 last year. They definitely didn't get the most impressive totals though, I believe.

 

[NCSNOW]

12 z canadian still in ballpark, not as good as its 0z run. 12gfs has 1 panel of flakes 2/13 central nc, but is dry. So the temps are there, moisture around. See what doc does here in a while.

 

[Tarheel1]

Wen torch? Asking for a friend

 

[Snowfan]

 

[tennessee storm]

Wen torch? Asking for a friendView attachment 193843

Know that won’t hold lmao

 

[iGRXY]

Know that won’t hold lmao

Well it’s held for the last 5 months soooooo. That torch you’ve been calling for hasn’t happened yet

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

End of the GFS get a lot of high pressure back
In the mix. If we can do something like that into the third week in February we might get another crack at this

 

[RBR71]

Know that won’t hold lmao

Why?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS wants to keep the good piece of cold within arms reach late into the season. That’s about all you can ask for. We can worry about the dislodge later

 

[rburrel2]

12z euro just buried us? Where is everybody.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z euro just buried us? Where is everybody.

Oh lawwwwd

 

[rburrel2]

I’ve seen worse maps.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just looking at precip maps it looks like some secondary action. First one mainly rains, brings the cold within it, then boom. Jimmy like

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Pivotal is slow today, out to hr 117


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[jrips27]

ATL special

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve seen worse maps.

View attachment 193846

It’s not a terrible look but probably one we’d need a bit of timing on our side. That big low off the coast into the Atlantic isn’t stationary but could provide just enough of a flow jam to help us here. It’s all pretty quick.

 

[HailCore]

Oh lawwwwdView attachment 193845

What a beauty. Such a shame there isn't more model agreement towards a solution like this, otherwise I would be jumping with joy as this would single-handedly bring an end/substantially reduce the snow drought over my region that will have persisted for 6+ years by tomorrow, noon (Feb 8, 2020 was the last 2+ inch heavy snow event at my house and the bordering counties/vicinity).

 

[Mitch West]

My kind of snowstorm. Make it as borderline as possible. Nuke it at 32°

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What a beauty. Such a shame there isn't more model agreement towards a solution like this, otherwise I would be jumping with joy as this would single-handedly bring an end/substantially reduce the snow drought over my region that will have persisted for 6+ years by tomorrow, noon (Feb 8, 2020 was the last 2+ inch heavy snow event at my house and the bordering counties/vicinity).

It’s just not an anchored pattern. Pretty fast moving but euro shows there is a window. Maybe we can get the eps to bite a little.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The run-to-run inconsistency among all of the models beyond day 5 has been off the charts lately. That said, it's nice to see this system show up on various runs and certainly is a timeframe of interest.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Euro also drops some snow in eastern NC from the first system on the 13th from Raleigh northeastward into Roanoke Rapids and Greenville. Winter isn't over

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

What's a fantasy storm without a proper clown map?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

That depiction makes a bit more sense for the low positioning.

I’d just like to see other suites bite on this. Maybe the EPS can bite a little.

But I know I think many are mentally zapped from that three week period in January.

 

[lexxnchloe]

ATL special
View attachment 193848

The first low does well for NENC

 

[snowc]

Just 3 weeks till spring, just pointing out...

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

What's a fantasy storm without a proper clown map?View attachment 193852

It is somewhat interesting to see, especially given AIFS is kinda starting to like the general idea a bit more, may not look like it when you look at precip maps, but behind the scenes things are trending more suppressed

 

[Makeitsnow]

What's a fantasy storm without a proper clown map?View attachment 193852

Seems strange to see the euro out on its own giving us this storm. And as im sure it will be long gone by the next run, here is a totals map for entertainment purposes only. But i sure wish it wasn't..Atlanta really is really owed a big one.

 

[Stevo24]

I saw CJ post up a hype snow post and had to come here and check it out. Looks like much ado about nothing. Bonus points to the Euro for throwing a bone for once instead of the GFS though.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Seems strange to see the euro out on its own giving us this storm. And as im sure it will be long gone by the next run, here is a totals map for entertainment purposes only. But i sure wish it wasn't..Atlanta really is really owed a big one.

View attachment 193854

No support on the ensembles....only 1 member is a hit. .Ai ensembles are a little better but more focused on nc.

 

[MichaelJ]

Way too early but, if the parent high moves a little further North and West (which will likely happen) then this thing will come back North but how much is the key. Cold will be marginal but doable

 

[NCSNOW]

Lot of hits for triad on those ensembles. Looks as good as you could hope over 6 days out. Dont think its contaimenated with sunday skiff

 

[Arcc]

Hate to say it but I grew up 2 hours west of ATL and most years were pretty much snowless as a kid

I think y'all paid for 93 for a long time haha maybe still are

Probably paying for the Gulf storm last year now. Those things don't come around very often over there unfortunately

Yep. In my first twenty years of life, I saw three plus inches, three times.

 

[Nomanslandva]

Euro and Euro AI are worlds apart. People have been posting snow maps from the AI but it's ice if it is anything freezing/frozen with this look. More likely just cold rain.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I saw CJ post up a hype snow post and had to come here and check it out. Looks like much ado about nothing. Bonus points to the Euro for throwing a bone for once instead of the GFS though.

CJ reading the forum

 

[Mitch West]

CJ reading the forum View attachment 193859

Bro really on a different level of not caring when it comes to posting.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.

Jason, I found this video fascinating. This could be one explanation....



If it is true what he is saying, the effects could very well linger.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Euro says it slides. The ridge over the south sort of gets muted as it slides west to east so it gains zero latitude. It exits where it enters

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Euro says it slides. The ridge over the south sort of gets muted as it slides west to east so it gains zero latitude. It exits where it enters View attachment 193860

THAT is the kind of system that could deliver the goods for this area. Hate its so far down the road.

 

[NBAcentel]

If the AIs aren’t biting, then I’m not sighting. Maybe a climo type of footprint, that wouldn’t shock me, the cold air source is ehh. We don’t have that on our side to suppress the baroclinic zone this go around. We gotta totally rely on the ridge on top keeping the wave from wanting to go poleward, and a stronger Atlantic low to keep it from wanting to cut

 

[NBAcentel]

DT says hold the phone, it’s --------. Lol. I understand the sentiment here but the AI models are rain bombs themselves lol