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Pattern Fab Feb

SegTindo said:
Oh I’m not gonna get my hopes up cause it’s probably gonna end up so far north towards BHAM,ATL and Nashville…


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Honestly, probably not. That upper air pattern will have to change a buttload to get this to come north. Should be a slider no matter what. The question is: Does it slide to cuba?
 
Disco_Lemonade said:
Now that's money!

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That would lead to a rare significant N FL/coastal SE snowstorm. It’s fun to dream, but how often do those occur (once every few decades on avg) and how often do models trend NW a lot in 7 days (quite often)? So, I’m keeping expectations at low probabilities this far out. The players are seemingly available but they usually don’t cooperate with each other.
 
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griteater said:
Maybe the western appendage of the TPV will help us this time instead of hurting us.....nice here

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If that had gone out further based on H5 and sfc low position, the sfc low would have crossed way down at the C or even S FL pen but then probably turning NE well off the SE coast, a dream path for someone like me for the very rare coastal snowstorm with this much cold dry air to its north available. But it’s still 7-8 days out and models are all over the place/unreliable/models usually trend NW/those are so rare blah blah.
 
Canadian must be delayed. 12z hasn’t updated on tropical tidbits

GEFS look pretty suppressed. I counted 7 or 8 out of the 30 with snowfall confined to the coastlines/Deep South. Definitely feel our miss is going to be suppression or to the gulf coast regions once again. Right where we want at this stage but I won’t like it if we don’t start seeing some movement in a few days. Mighty cold airmass next week. Now that UKMET was sure something to look at.
 
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ALHammerWx said:
Hopefully next weeks storm is like storms of the past where the snow totals drift North with each model run and Birmingham AL & north gets a real nice one. Hopefully not wishcasting too much.
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I feel like I don’t know what to think atp. It’s been so long since I’ve had accumulating snow, I’ll have to see it to believe it lol we need the euro on board!
 
griteater said:
Maybe the western appendage of the TPV will help us this time instead of hurting us.....nice here

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There seems to be a decent chance of a pinched off bowling ball in the southeast with this. Would love to see it, but good luck nailing that down any time soon. Hopefully it keeps flashing on the models for now.
 
Parker said:
Canadian must be delayed. 12z hasn’t updated on tropical tidbits

GEFS look pretty suppressed. I counted 7 or 8 out of the 30 with snowfall confined to the coastlines/Deep South. Definitely feel our miss is going to be suppression or to the gulf coast regions once again. Right where we want at this stage but I won’t like it if we don’t start seeing some movement in a few days. Mighty cold airmass next week. Now that UKMET was sure something to look at.
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Keeps getting suppressed and I am starting to get a little concerned about that. When we need a northern trend can’t get one. 😂. But trying to be patient..
 
Parker said:
Canadian must be delayed. 12z hasn’t updated on tropical tidbits

GEFS look pretty suppressed. I counted 7 or 8 out of the 30 with snowfall confined to the coastlines/Deep South. Definitely feel our miss is going to be suppression or to the gulf coast regions once again. Right where we want at this stage but I won’t like it if we don’t start seeing some movement in a few days. Mighty cold airmass next week. Now that UKMET was sure something to look at.
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Low track and cluster is highly improved over 6z and last night's 12z. A lot more bombs off the east coast.
 
GaWx said:
If that had gone out further based on H5 and sfc low position, the sfc low would have crossed way down at the C or even S FL pen but then probably turning NE well off the SE coast, a dream path for someone like me for the very rare coastal snowstorm with this much cold dry air to its north available. But it’s still 7-8 days out and models are all over the place/unreliable/models usually trend NW/those are so rare blah blah.
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How often do they come in board wide? You and me and Gainesville/Chattanooga too? Ever? 1880's?
 
WPC jumping on next weekend pretty quick
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