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Pattern Fab Feb

Late afternoon was downright chilly with breezy and 50s….delightful. My evening walk was very enjoyable in the near calm chill with mid 40s. Tomorrow will be a similarly lovely day. Saturday will be a little warmer (~upper 60s high), but with still nice low dewpoints. These are the types of days I dream about during the long monotonous hot and humid summers here.
 
Well we good for an inch plus of COLD rain up this way late Sat-Sun per all the Globals. Thankful for the rain, but would have preferred a slow soaking melted snowpack for better absorption. Actually this is a waste of a good track for mid Feb, just no cold air tap.
 
rburrel2 said:
Not a bad look. That’s how you can sneak a storm inside a bad pattern.

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We all know that operational runs showing a SE winter storm threat in fantasyland (near hour 240 in this case) are a dime a dozen. In the bigger picture, the big challenge to getting a significant SE winter storm late this month appears as of now to be the most -PNA period in Feb since way back in 2011:

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GaWx said:
We all know that operational runs showing a SE winter storm threat in fantasyland (near hour 240 in this case) are a dime a dozen. In the bigger picture, the big challenge to getting a significant SE winter storm late this month appears as of now to be the most -PNA period in Feb since way back in 2011:

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Agreed. I think this year is another good example to show the real need to have a western ridge/+PNA to get a storm in the SE. December we had a decent -NAO/-AO, but had very little to show for it (-PNA) in the south, as most of the cold stayed to the north, mid-atlantic/NE (and that was because of a great -WPO). Mid January we got the +PNA to cooperate and we were off and running.

PNA and the pacific rules the roost IMO when it comes to being in the game for a southern winter storm. Atlantic blocking keeps it south and keeps the high where it needs to be for the better details, but without the right pacific we're not even in the ballgame IMO.
 
Brandon10 said:
I have a feeling that we all are going to enjoy faux spring and when March 1 rolls around and we want it warm, we go back to the freezer.
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This is exactly what I'm hoping for with my trip to the Hudson Valley NY March 5. Got to get a make up storm out of this for missing the Ontario Obliterator. 😭
 
SnowNiner said:
Agreed. I think this year is another good example to show the real need to have a western ridge/+PNA to get a storm in the SE. December we had a decent -NAO/-AO, but had very little to show for it (-PNA) in the south, as most of the cold stayed to the north, mid-atlantic/NE (and that was because of a great -WPO). Mid January we got the +PNA to cooperate and we were off and running.

PNA and the pacific rules the roost IMO when it comes to being in the game for a southern winter storm. Atlantic blocking keeps it south and keeps the high where it needs to be for the better details, but without the right pacific we're not even in the ballgame IMO.
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The stats that I’ve posted several times clearly back up a +PNA as having the strongest correlation to SE winter storms and a -NAO as having no better than a weak correlation.

PNA most important single index: Why?

# of big RDU/GSO storms/PNA:

- +PNA: 21; neutral PNA 10; -PNA: 7
- So, 3 times as many for +PNA vs -PNA
- Interestingly though, the strongest -PNA for one of these was the -1.1 for 2/12-13/2014. But that’s highly unusual as that’s the only one of the 38 storms with a PNA lower than -0.8.

- -NAO: 16; neutral NAO: 10; +NAO: 12
- So, -NAO slight ad. but much more balanced vs PNA


Fwiw, here’s the latest GEFS NAO prog:
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
A couple weeks ago my house looked like beech mountain, now I’m out here shooting bball in basketball shorts and a t-shirt. What a life
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That’s one thing that’s so interesting about winter, the season with the greatest temperature variations. Compare that to the relatively monotonous summer with hot/humid most days.
 
Now that winter weather chances are wrapped for the season outside of the high country, the focus is on some late seasons s snows in western NC

Come on up when it comes

Euro Ensembles :

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