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Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx said:
Read it and weep (unless you prefer a mild and dry winter): 3.4 is now down to -1.7C, implying a very strong La Nina this winter.
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What I find interesting is that warm blob south of AK, in some ways resembles 2017 other than the warm waters off cali/most of the west coast, I mean many things match here 966A8DFA-0E44-4328-BF9E-EB1BB0952D4E.pngA21917C2-A16E-4BE3-97A1-4E2DAD408A30.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find interesting is that warm blob south of AK, in some ways resembles 2017 other than the warm waters off cali/most of the west coast, I mean many things match here View attachment 51551View attachment 51549
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Honestly I haven't seen that blob do anything lately since it became a topic of conversation back in 13-14. Thats an ugly La Nina. No way to sugarcoat that. A -NAO is all that can save this winter imo.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hope we get the strongest Nina ever and get plenty of cold and snowy periods which confound the conventional wisdom of La Ninas.
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Well, all the Nino's were supposed to be cooler than normal and we torched. It would be only fitting for a strong Nina winter to be cold. I say bring on the North Atlantic blocking.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hope we get the strongest Nina ever and get plenty of cold and snowy periods which confound the conventional wisdom of La Ninas.
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While we can see a Nino completely torch and not follow wisdom I would say this is much harder to overcome. I saw some knowledgeable guys on Americanwx in the Mid Atlantic forum stating that every single moderate to strong Nina that turned out to be decent had NAO help. Not most but every single one. 10-11 being the last one. We aren't the Mid Atlantic obviously but whats bad for them surely isn't good for us. I have no idea why the NAO has remained so stubborn during winter lately, but thats probably not changing this year. Just hoping to get some occasional EPO help and maybe a window or two to snow during an overall torch.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
While we can see a Nino completely torch and not follow wisdom I would say this is much harder to overcome. I saw some knowledgeable guys on Americanwx in the Mid Atlantic forum stating that every single moderate to strong Nina that turned out to be decent had NAO help. Not most but every single one. 10-11 being the last one. We aren't the Mid Atlantic obviously but whats bad for them surely isn't good for us. I have no idea why the NAO has remained so stubborn during winter lately, but thats probably not changing this year. Just hoping to get some occasional EPO help and maybe a window or two to snow during an overall torch.
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1988-89 had the opposite of nao help and it ended up just fine here, we had a few big storms in February in fact
 
GaWx said:
Read it and weep (unless you prefer a mild and dry winter): 3.4 is now down to -1.7C, implying a very strong La Nina this winter.
Click to expand...

Larry, I'm not as good as you with weather patterns, but IF that warm water stays on west coast and ne Pacific, I believe this winter will be alot more interesting than one would think in typical laniña. Just my opinion. We still a long ways to go.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I'm not as good as you with weather patterns, but IF that warm water stays on west coast and ne Pacific, I believe this winter will be alot more interesting than one would think in typical laniña. Just my opinion. We still a long ways to go.
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I'm not Larry, but forecasters are saying Nina suppose to weaken in the middle of winter. There are a few things I cant explain that effects our winter ahead with of couple of moving parts that can easily put us more into a cold pattern this winter.
 
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