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Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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Decided to make a topic about the ENSO since it could affect our next winter.
This fall, a El Niño may form.
 
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history. The only warm one of the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE.
 
The latest update has the Niño 3.4 down to -0.2 C. The El Niño is not expected to form until later this year.
 
The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter. If we get El Niño, I'd feel quite good about next winter as I've stated several times based on the history of El Niño following a weak La Niña.
 
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Nino 1+2 cooled a lot as it went down to its lowest in 3 months, +0.9. The other 3 regions were unchanged.
 
Not sure where this goes but JB is floating this for next winter
ef4e7b034725a3bf5d008f0c40cc6034.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
Of course he is already. And of course it is a cool one for the NE.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately for JB, he has been predicting cool to cold winters in much of the E US most of the time since I started following his winter forecasts in 2001, and he has, as a result, verified poorly in most of the warm winters. I'd love to see him predict an outright warm winter for the bulk of the E US (something I can't recall him doing even once....I mean widespread anomalies of, say, 3+) for a change. However, he has already hinted that that won't occur at least until
after the upcoming ~2020-1 deep solar minimum.

About 4 years ago he predicted that 3 of the subsequent 5 winters would be warm. However, as these winters approached and it was time for his annual forecasts, he backed off this idea for the most part. That's too bad. Obviously, he's going to predict cold for 2017-8.

Despite his cold forecasts often verifying poorly, I may end up agreeing with him for 2017-8 as I still think there's a good chance of a cold winter for the SE US should there actually be a Nino to form later this year.

Edit: To be fair to JB, I've seen very few winter forecasts with widespread warmth from non-pros since 2001 and not all that many from pros although I know the pros at MDA wx as well as at the NWS have gone warm a number of times. MDA would, as a result, have credibility if they were to predict cold.
 
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GaWx said:
Unfortunately for JB, he has been predicting cool to cold winters in much of the E US most of the time since I started following his winter forecasts in 2001, and he has, as a result, verified poorly in most of the warm winters. I'd love to see him predict an outright warm winter for the bulk of the E US (something I can't recall him doing even once....I mean widespread anomalies of, say, 3+) for a change. However, he has already hinted that that won't occur at least until
after the upcoming ~2020-1 deep solar minimum.

About 4 years ago he predicted that 3 of the subsequent 5 winters would be warm. However, as these winters approached and it was time for his annual forecasts, he backed off this idea for the most part. That's too bad. Obviously, he's going to predict cold for 2017-8.

Despite his cold forecasts often verifying poorly, I may end up agreeing with him for 2017-8 as I still think there's a good chance of a cold winter for the SE US should there actually be a Nino to form later this year.

Edit: To be fair to JB, I've seen very few winter forecasts with widespread warmth from non-pros since 2001 and not all that many from pros although I know the pros at MDA wx as well as at the NWS have gone warm a number of times. MDA would, as a result, have credibility if they were to predict cold.
Click to expand...

L - Very well written. ;)
Phil
 
GaWx said:
The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter. If we get El Niño, I'd feel quite good about next winter as I've stated several times based on the history of El Niño following a weak La Niña.
Click to expand...

Pardon my ignorance but what would be the result of this?
 
Phillip l said:
Pardon my ignorance but what would be the result of this?
Click to expand...

A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
 
GaWx said:
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
Click to expand...

Ok, thanks for the reply. I for one would love to have a nice cold winter, perhaps even with snow. Considering how it was this year that would be very welcome.
 
GaWx said:
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
Click to expand...
Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki - :confused: ... hint, hint, Larry ...
 
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pcbjr said:
Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki - :confused: ... hint, hint, Larry ...
Click to expand...

My answer is "yes". (I think you meant Modoki "Nino" not "Nina".) In looking at the 10, I didn't distinguish Modoki from non-Modoki and honestly don't know how to categorize all 10. So, 9 of the 10 of whatever kind of El Nino that followed a weak Nina were colder than normal in the SE US and even included 3 of the 10 coldest on record at KATL. Actually, a Modoki would give it a better chance to be cold as that normally excludes the superstrong ones. The weaker El Ninos have been the coldest in the SE of any ENSO on average. So, the "other factors" tend to be favorable for SE cold during weaker El Nino (whether or not following a weak Nina). Then again, 1951-2 was a weaker Nino that followed a weak Nnia and was warm. So, you never know as those other factors during weak Ninos sometimes still end up being negative for cold!
 
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