• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Effects of a Warmer World on Southeast Snow Climo

It appears unlikely that RDU will get any measurable snow this month. That means RDU will have had a total of 39.5" from 2011-2020: still more than many locations in the Deep South, but 20.5" below the "normal" of 60.0". Considering we have not had a single winter with 10"+ total all decade, that is not surprising.

Based on 1991-2020 climo, RDU's 30-year average snowfall will drop from 6.0" to 5.1". 1971-2000 climo actually had a mean of 6.9". RDU snowfall definitely appears to be on a gradual downward trend.

I think for the south median annual snowfall is a more accurate metric than mean annual snowfall. For instance, the 1981-2010 mean snowfall for RDU was about 6", but that does not mean we get 6" in most years.

Source for data: https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=rah
 
CyclonicFury said:
It appears unlikely that RDU will get any measurable snow this month. That means RDU will have had a total of 39.5" from 2011-2020: still more than many locations in the Deep South, but 20.5" below the "normal" of 60.0". Considering we have not had a single winter with 10"+ total all decade, that is not surprising.

Based on 1991-2020 climo, RDU's 30-year average snowfall will drop from 6.0" to 5.1". 1971-2000 climo actually had a mean of 6.9". RDU snowfall definitely appears to be on a gradual downward trend.

I think for the south median annual snowfall is a more accurate metric than mean annual snowfall. For instance, the 1981-2010 mean snowfall for RDU was about 6", but that does not mean we get 6" in most years.
Click to expand...
Yeah , I think that’s true for much of the eastern us . We have potential for lots of boom years but most years aren’t that, so most are probably below the mean . Therefore median would be a better measure.
 
Last edited:
Lickwx said:
Yeah , I think that’s true for much of the eastern us . We have potential for lots of book years but most years aren’t that, so most are probably below the mean . Therefore median would be a better measure.
Click to expand...
Indeed, snowfall is highly right-skewed in these parts (from years like 2000), which pulls the average above the mean. It wouldn’t shock me if our median is more like 3-4”.
 
cyclogent said:
Probably would need to dive into the hourly surface obs and remodel p-types for "event+5F". What are currently marginal/borderline events would become rain with +5F, but we still get a decent share of snow with temps well below freezing, with 5, 10, and sometimes 15 degrees or more to spare...I would think amounts from those get a boost with the higher PWATs. Overall a lot less snow, but even with 10F I don't think Charlotte would become the FL panhandle
Click to expand...
Is a 5F warmer world really an “event+5F” world, though? Or is it more complicated than that? I’m thinking it probably is and you can’t just apply a blanket 5F warmer to events in general, but I’m not positive.
 
superjames1992 said:
Is a 5F warmer world really an “event+5F” world, though? Or is it more complicated than that? I’m thinking it probably is and you can’t just apply a blanket 5F warmer to events in general, but I’m not positive.
Click to expand...
Definitely what I think! A 5 degree warmer world doesn't mean a 5 degree warmer event.
 
CyclonicFury said:
It appears unlikely that RDU will get any measurable snow this month. That means RDU will have had a total of 39.5" from 2011-2020: still more than many locations in the Deep South, but 20.5" below the "normal" of 60.0". Considering we have not had a single winter with 10"+ total all decade, that is not surprising.

Based on 1991-2020 climo, RDU's 30-year average snowfall will drop from 6.0" to 5.1". 1971-2000 climo actually had a mean of 6.9". RDU snowfall definitely appears to be on a gradual downward trend.

I think for the south median annual snowfall is a more accurate metric than mean annual snowfall. For instance, the 1981-2010 mean snowfall for RDU was about 6", but that does not mean we get 6" in most years.

Source for data: https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=rah
Click to expand...
Definitely a bleak trend, although we’ve seen similar oscillations up and down with snowfall in the past, so I don’t know if we can conclusively pin the blame for this on AGW or not. I mean, it seems plausible, but there are other possibilities (or quite likely it’s a combination of things, AGW included).
 
superjames1992 said:
Definitely a bleak trend, although we’ve seen similar oscillations up and down with snowfall in the past, so I don’t know if we can conclusively pin the blame for this on AGW or not. I mean, it seems plausible, but there are other possibilities (or quite likely it’s a combination of things, AGW included).
Click to expand...

I would say 99% AGW as we would be in a cooling trend minus the added CO2 due to Earths orbital parameters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webber, do you think there's any chance Atlanta's snow climo 100 years from now could be similar to what North Florida's snow climo is now ? Im fearful that one day snow will be almost a once in a lifetime type event in Atlanta.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Webber, do you think there's any chance Atlanta's snow climo 100 years from now could be similar to what North Florida's snow climo is now ?
Click to expand...

The change in the last 100 years doesn't seem to suggest anyways that it would occur that fast and in some places of NC for ex like GSO, there is really no significant downward trend in snow (yet), but you could probably reasonably expect to be somewhat analogous to Macon-Columbus, GA's climo, unless something cataclysmic or drastic occurs between now & then. Oth, I think what's also important to think about is compared to their climos of long ago, the air masses the come from the arctic aren't as cold, deep, or persistent and the greater amount of vapor in the atmosphere coupled w/ warm oceans overall implies the increased propensity for warm noses relative to what may have been observed in those locations in a similar snow climo.
 
Raleigh's running 20yr snowfall avg. Talk about a cliff....and it will only get worse over the next 4-5 years as 2002, 2003 and 2004 roll off the 20 yr.

But like Webb said...this hasn't really affected GSO. And I bet if you run this for PGV it's probably not like this. The NE has had an incredible 20 yr run. Just different locales don't seem affected...yet.

Screen Shot 2021-01-13 at 10.42.01 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This tweet belongs in said thread:

Click to expand...

Interesting stuff. Do you have any sense of whether 1891-1920 might have been an outlier period and 1861-1890 were less snowy?

So maybe in another 100 years RDU will have the current snow climo of FAY and FAY’s snow climo will be like that of coastal South Carolina. RIP. ?
 
KyloG said:
Raleigh's running 20yr snowfall avg. Talk about a cliff....and it will only get worse over the next 4-5 years as 2002, 2003 and 2004 roll off the 20 yr.

But like Webb said...this hasn't really affected GSO. And I bet if you run this for PGV it's probably not like this. The NE has had an incredible 20 yr run. Just different locales don't seem affected...yet.

View attachment 65491
Click to expand...
Yeah, although when 2002-2004 fall off, so will the terrible 2005-2007, so it may bit be too catastrophic. Definitely an ugly chart, though!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The change in the last 100 years doesn't seem to suggest anyways that it would occur that fast and in some places of NC for ex like GSO, there is really no significant downward trend in snow (yet), but you could probably reasonably expect to be somewhat analogous to Macon-Columbus, GA's climo, unless something cataclysmic or drastic occurs between now & then. Oth, I think what's also important to think about is compared to their climos of long ago, the air masses the come from the arctic aren't as cold, deep, or persistent and the greater amount of vapor in the atmosphere coupled w/ warm oceans overall implies the increased propensity for warm noses relative to what may have been observed in those locations in a similar snow climo.
Click to expand...
Do you think it’s plausible that warmer oceans may lead to bigger storms, and so that even though it may snow significantly less often in 50-100 years, we can make up some of that by getting bigger snowstorms when it is actually cold enough?
 
superjames1992 said:
Interesting stuff. Do you have any sense of whether 1891-1920 might have been an outlier period and 1861-1890 were less snowy?

So maybe in another 100 years RDU will have the current snow climo of FAY and FAY’s snow climo will be like that of coastal South Carolina. RIP. ?
Click to expand...

Due largely to much colder February’s, 1879-1917 at ATL averaged close to 4”/winter! That’s about twice the 1879-2020 rate of 2”!
 
superjames1992 said:
Interesting stuff. Do you have any sense of whether 1891-1920 might have been an outlier period and 1861-1890 were less snowy?

So maybe in another 100 years RDU will have the current snow climo of FAY and FAY’s snow climo will be like that of coastal South Carolina. RIP. ?
Click to expand...

Based on data at Wilmington & Charlotte the 1870s-1880s were roughly as snowy to maybe a little less so overall, which means the downward trend would still hold up in all likelihood.

That's an interesting thought, it's certainly possible that within the next 3-4 decades or so, Fayetteville's snow climo will be equivalent to what Wilmington's was back in the early-mid 20th century.
 
superjames1992 said:
Do you think it’s plausible that warmer oceans may lead to bigger storms, and so that even though it may snow significantly less often in 50-100 years, we can make up some of that by getting bigger snowstorms when it is actually cold enough?
Click to expand...

It certainly can as the most recent very large snowstorm in the NE US has shown & interesting research emerged during and after this event that showed warmer adjacent oceans off the mid-Atlantic led to more precipitable water and snow in colder areas further NW (i.e. a bigger NW trend). This also could mean that as baroclinicity generally decreases, while latent heating within their warm, moist conveyor belt becomes proportionally more important in driving extratropical cyclones, that unless our understanding and models of moist convection very dramatically improve over the coming few decades (which I hope they do), predictability of these storms may decrease as the e-folding scales of convection are much smaller than the advective processes and relatively more linear variations in the basic-state flow that are easier for NWP to forecast/resolve.

 
You can think of it as loading the dice for less winter weather events but larger ones when they do due to more water vapor and higher ssts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top