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Pattern December to Remember

Myfrotho704_ said:
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The general pattern is roughly the same. The biggest difference appears to be that the blocking out in the north Atlantic is a bit stronger and the ocean storm out in the central Pacific is farther east, which is helping to pump up heights in the west. That's the key for now. The ridge NW of the Aleutians is not in a favorable position for severe cold and storms for us. That really needs to change.
 
Hopefully we can retrograde the Aleutian ridge sometime because if it sticks around then these warmer solutions will start trickling down like they have the last 2-3 days, very La Niña look with no -NAO to stop it, this has been staying in the hour 300s tho so not to worried yetEF0E0804-84C2-4660-8097-B55801CB891D.png6A96F784-479D-40C2-ADBD-F64C4962A0D0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hopefully we can retrograde the Aleutian ridge sometime because if it sticks around then these warmer solutions will start trickling down like they have the last 2-3 days, very La Niña look with no -NAO to stop it, this has been staying in the hour 300s tho so not to worried yetView attachment 96144View attachment 96145
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If we get a flat aleutian ridge in December, we are fooked lol. More poleward is ideal I believe
 
Mr. Golf said:
If we get a flat aleutian ridge in December, we are fooked lol. More poleward is ideal I believe
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The winter teleconnection that most favors E US cold/troughing is a trough in the longitude of the central and eastern Aleutians. So, I don’t see how an Aleutian ridge can be considered ideal for E US cold lovers. When you say we, I assume you mean E US in general since most active members are there. If you’re talking central US, that’s obviously not going to be the same since it is centered 1,000 or so miles further west.
 
The GEFS still looks great as regards the MJO forecast, itself, for late in the run for E US cold prospects for mid to late December. However, as said before the upcoming GEFS forecasted -PNA/+AO/+NAO combo for later this week will need to largely reverse to give the E US a good shot at cold domination then as the MJO is far from the sole index to be considered. Still hoping that flip will occur by mid-December.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
For some reason I still feel like the GEFS. Will be way different
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Gefs probably has 2 different camps with the colder solution and some western trough solutions, unfortunately it’s a progressive biased model meaning it could probably be leaning towards a EC trough given its faster/less amped issues associated with the progressive bias
 
I’m honestly a fan of the southeast ridge solution and no not because it’s warm, but -PNAs typically mean more rain in the SE/especially northern/western, the GEFS solution is dry and cold NW flow, and a solution that would allow severe and possibly extreme drought to become widespread, gonna see way more fires over the NC mountains if we continue 0BD36E18-A4FE-4B8A-82DA-06B44C5912AF.png
 
Can someone tell me where to get the maps with custom parameters and variations? I remember there were two or three different address. I lost my favorites tabs.


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Zero agreement on the Models. GFS has a cold dump for the West and a SE ridge. GEFS is much colder for the eastern US and the CMC(likely has a cold bias,but still) brings severe cold into the eastern half of the Country. Who knows what the Euro and the EPS will do. Might be a while before we know exactly what happens.
 
Can someone explain the difference between the GFS and the GEFS models?
Faco Thomas said:
Zero agreement on the Models. GFS has a cold dump for the West and a SE ridge. GEFS is much colder for the eastern US and the CMC(likely has a cold bias,but still) brings severe cold into the eastern half of the Country. Who knows what the Euro and the EPS will do. Might be a while before we know exactly what happens.
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when does the euro come out again?
 
Faco Thomas said:
Zero agreement on the Models. GFS has a cold dump for the West and a SE ridge. GEFS is much colder for the eastern US and the CMC(likely has a cold bias,but still) brings severe cold into the eastern half of the Country. Who knows what the Euro and the EPS will do. Might be a while before we know exactly what happens.
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Don’t think CMC is cold biased as it recently showed very warm conditions like the gfs what the cmc is showing is the potential that this pattern brings in being able to dump serious cold our way and the quick changes in operationals shows how delicate the pattern is as this is what we talk about with the “windshield wiper” effect on models this should continue until all the models settle in on one solution
 
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