Pattern December to Remember

[NoSnowATL]

But 1 is crappy because it’s the least snowiest phase. The good ones are 7,8,2.

I think 1 is good for my area if I remember correctly. I know Larry has posted that snow storm per phase a few times for Atlanta.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Okay I’m so confused. Is phase 7 good for snow in January or not? Half the people are saying yes and half are saying no. Is there any maps showing what a phase 7 does in January?

I don’t like those djf average maps because they average out stuff over 3 months vs 3 weeks to a month, and May go to something warmer or cooler

 

[SD]

Okay I’m so confused. Is phase 7 good for snow in January or not? Half the people are saying yes and half are saying no. Is there any maps showing what a phase 7 does in January?

You are starting to see the subregions appear and how we need competing factors to be present from state to state even within states to score big. Outside of the classic board wide/statewide systems of the past typically what gives you a substantial snow isn't great for me and vise versa for example.

 

[Tarheel1]

The 0Z GEFS, like most runs, slowly improves late.with strong cold n Plain to Washington state.

I love all your work Larry, and no disrespect, but I feel like I’ve been hearing is (you) talking about a cold outbreak that starts in the plains and oozes S and E, for like 2-3 weeks! We want it now

 

[bigstick10]

These long range forecasts are so depressing. I mean we wait all long summer for some cold weather only to be crushed year after year by warmth, I for one am just sick of it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These long range forecasts are so depressing. I mean we wait all long summer for some cold weather only to be crushed year after year by warmth, I for one am just sick of it

It was 50s/30s everyday this past November

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon looks depressing tho lol

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cover your eyes

 

[Rain Cold]

It’ll probably loop back to 6 then.

It did last year.

I'll bet phase 7 looks different in La Nina than it does in El Nino than it does in La Nada. How does it change with a strong easterly QBO? Does it change with a second year weak to moderate east-based La Nina that's rising toward neutral? How does it look for a a second year weak to moderate east-baswd La Nina that's rising toward neutral with an ascending easterly QBO in a period of moderate solar flux within a larger solar min? Anybody know?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hold on

 

[Rain Cold]

Hold on View attachment 98255

Streamlines look better. Move Pac low west and Pac ridge east. Boom

 

[SD]

Lol gfs is very close to backing the upper low off the west coast just far enough and put enough ridging into AK/NW Can that we get a decent look around and after Christmas

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah this is getting better

 

[BirdManDoomW]

This clear explanation tells you everything you need to know.

MJO is hung up in 6 and there is nothing favorable for NC until it rotates into 8/1

Winter chances appear dim through January 15 and may not work into our favor until late winter after February 1

Only the gracious Lord knows for sure

Carbon copy of what I said awhile back even exact date lol. Oh well. I’m still waiting until Christmas Eve before I can cancel that last week of January because it’s a little uncertain imo.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We still need a lot of help and changes, but I’m still thinking early jan. Just would be nice to see something change now because I’m impatient, this is the trend we want tho (in black arrows)

 

[Webberweather53]

Phase 7, 8, & null are most favorable generally speaking for winter weather in the Carolinas for our 4 snowiest months of the year (Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar (DJFM).

As @GaWx has pointed out many times, null RMM MJO is also good for cold/snow and I can reaffirm that (again) here. As an extension of an earlier post on here a week or so ago, when you break down the daily winter storm probabilities in each MJO phase also down by ENSO, it looks like that favorability in null is most enhanced during El Nino winters, whereas in La Ninas like this year, phase 7-8 are actually more conducive. Phase 8 is arguably the best for winter weather in a La Nina, but 7 is a very close second. Imo, I don't have a sufficient sample size of MJO data or winter storms to draw conclusions for individual months, and this relationship being averaged over the winter season will be different for certain MJO + ENSO phases in Feb & esp Mar vs Dec-Jan when the wavelengths start to change (shorten) and we start to move out of the Austral summer monsoon season.



Data source:
Nov-Apr Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)

 

[SD]

Gfs is a model of consistency

 

[FallsLake]

South Wake County in the mid 60s with North Wake in the mid 40s.
12z GFS for late afternoon on the 26th:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Phase 7, 8, & null are most favorable generally speaking for winter weather in the Carolinas for our 4 snowiest months of the year (Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar (DJFM).

As @GaWx has pointed out many times, null RMM MJO is also good for cold/snow and I can reaffirm that (again) here. As an extension of an earlier post on here a week or so ago, when you break down the daily winter storm probabilities in each MJO phase also down by ENSO, it looks like that favorability in null is most enhanced during El Nino winters, whereas in La Ninas like this year, phase 7-8 are actually more conducive. Phase 8 is arguably the best for winter weather in a La Nina, but 7 is a very close second. Imo, I don't have a sufficient sample size of MJO data or winter storms to draw conclusions for individual months, and this relationship being averaged over the winter season will be different for certain MJO + ENSO phases in Feb & esp Mar vs Dec-Jan when the wavelengths start to change (shorten) and we start to move out of the Austral summer monsoon season.

View attachment 98257

Data source:
Nov-Apr Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)

Yeah exactly. Don’t know why I been hearing that 7 is a bad MJO phase in jan. It isn’t