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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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CMC is a major ice hit for all of Georgia from virtually Tifton north. The map looks similar to the famous New Year's Day 1964 ice storm that virtually paralyzed all of Middle Georgia.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ah classic GFS loses a storm in the medium range by suppressing it and stringing out the southern branch energy too much. Good sign that this is a legit threat
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I was just thinking the same thing. The more suppressed and stringy the gfs looks the better off we are

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Wonder if we do start a storm thread if we should just have one thread for the 29th into the first week of 2018 since we have three storms showing up. Might be a lot easier to handle than going back and forth between multiple threads.
 
Nothing to complain about when you have a cold airmass in place lots of energy and multiple wintry threats possible in a 7-12 day period . The ops will continue to spit out various solutions but you couldn’t really ask for more this time of year


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ForsythSnow said:
Looking at 925 mb temps on the CMC, a lot of that ice would actually be sleet.
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Determination of sleet vs ZR is probably the hardest p type to distinguish in winter wx forecasting. As I mentioned yesterday even if u got the temp profile exactly right the fact that different CCN freeze at different temperatures when in contact with water changes whether you get sleet of freezing rain at the surface, & models paramterize w/ marine CCN distributions (sea salt, etc.) which is almost always an invalid assumption for us here in the SE US
 
Oh believe me, while I don't expect it to be the case here, there's been an ice storm in the past that completely shut Atlanta out and was an East Georgia into the Carolinas special. This was a year before the big one that everyone remembers as it was bad for Atlanta and I think I actually was affected too but not as badly.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wonder if we do start a storm thread if we should just have one thread for the 29th into the first week of 2018 since we have three storms showing up. Might be a lot easier to handle than going back and forth between multiple threads.
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No , it appears we might have two separate threats . We should fire up a thread after the euro for the 27th-29th


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Storm5 said:
No , it appears we might have two separate threats . We should fire up a thread after the euro for the 27th-29th


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Okay, I thought it was the 28 to 29, 1 to 2, and 4 to 5. Getting confusing.
 
I can already tell, for the first/icy event; GEFS is on board from these early frames.
 
Shawn said:
The Euro is going to say yes, in most likelihood to an icy situation; Just as the CMC won't let go.
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Since the CMC has a hold on the system being an ice storm for CAD regions, I bet it will stay like that.
Shawn said:
I can already tell, for the first/icy event; GEFS is on board from these early frames.
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Figured the ensembles would place the GFS OP in the outlier category.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Since the CMC has a hold on the system being an ice storm for CAD regions, I bet it will stay like that.

Figured the ensembles would place the GFS OP in the outlier category.
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Just counted 15 with ice/sleet in CAE out of 20.
 
One of the 2 remaining models will have to cave to the GFS op before I pay any attention to it, either that or if if gets a lot of agreement with it's own ensemble
 
I remember Feb 2014 in CAE, catastrophic ice was suppose to hit, as we got closer to the storm, it looked like more cold air in the upper levels would be in place shifting the major ice S of CAE. Ultimately, CAE ended up with a major sleet event. I wonder if soemthing like this would happen as we got closer to the event. Going to be very exciting to watch.
 
To prevent confusion; if the 12z Euro has the first storm threat; we'll need a thread. For the Jan. threat; we have a new Jan thread also.
 
In my experience, an ice storm at the tail end of a cold period leads to a sharp warm-up while one at the beginning of one leads to other threats and this looks to be the case here too possibly (at least here in NC)
 
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