Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

[Brick Tamland]

Storm 01 - Day 7:

Wow, almost everyone has a storm for NC, and quite a few big dogs.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Storm 01 - Day 7:

How many of those are ice in CAD areas, or is that filtered?

 

[Shawn]

How many of those are ice in CAD areas, or is that filtered?

Most are sleet/ice.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Most are sleet/ice.

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Wish GEFS had an algo for IP/ZR really makes things screwy

 

[Tarheel1]

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

Ugggggh ! The word "clap" comes to mind!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Just counted and half of the GEFS are big dogs for here.

 

[Shawn]

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

THankfully, more sn than ip/ice

 

[MichaelJ]

The 12z GEFS is actually down in the number of members IMBY from it's 6z run with appreciable snow/ice. Went from 20/22 down to 16/22, still good odds but not a good trend as it seems to move the snow some northward

 

[Tarheel1]

THankfully, more sn than ip/ice

I really want this first storm to give a lot of us something! The cold air should be coming in on Wed, a fresh shot, then we get the good moisture, it'll be a nice event. Just want to score something, then the next one would be gravy!

 

[Tarheel1]

Naw

That means everything south of the ZR would be rain??

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Naw

You have a different model, and a different run entirely, that's not the GEFS.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

That means everything south of the ZR would be rain??

You have to remember this is Goofy's interpretation LoL

12z says what ice storm

 

[Shawn]

That GFS ice map above is old, from the 00z GFS.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

That GFS ice map above is old, from the 00z GFS.

Oops to many tabs open LoL

 

[Stormsfury]

FWIW, 13 of 20 GEFS members have frozen precip in the Lowcountry of SC 144hr 12-29-17

 

[Shawn]

FWIW, 13 of 20 GEFS members have frozen precip in the Lowcountry of SC 144hr 12-29-17

As long as the precipitation is there; the CAD is going to win in this situation.

 

[Stormsfury]

As long as the precipitation is there; the CAD is going to win in this situation.

I can't even go into the OP GFS on 12/31/17. Basically a raging 250mb jet over NC with relatively meager precip breaking out. Haven't checked the omegas but ...

On that note, the CMC looks to have a decent handle on the wedge/precip breaking out which spells the Carolina/GA ice rink a coming

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol the GFS was an outlier once again even vs its own ensemble suite

 

[SD]

Lol the GFS was an outlier once again even vs its own ensemble suite

Nothing like being off by a factor of 10+ on qpf projections

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[Storm5]

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[ForsythSnow]

Euro looking better through 72

 

[Shawn]

12z UKMET a central and eastern Carolinas winter storm. Probably more snow since it's more suppressed/less amped and the high is really wedged in.

Looking at other frames, the circulation (low) is right along the gulf coast/FL panhandle. Moisture is sparse; but we know that will increase as we get closer. Yes, I see a more ip/sn situation for some with this idea!

 

[RollTide18]

Looking at other frames, the circulation (low) is right along the gulf coast/FL panhandle. Moisture is sparse; but we know that will increase as we get closer. Yes, I see a more ip/sn situation for some with this idea!

That's good news for y'all especially coming from a more reliable model.

 

[deltadog03]

EURO pushing that high down through HR72

 

[deltadog03]

EURO pushing the precip along nicely at hour 96. looks like that little system we have talked about

 

[Tarheel1]

We've lost the NAVGEM! Supressed and out to sea! GFS like!

 

[deltadog03]

WEDGE really building in hr 114 and 120

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Shawn]

WEDGE really building in hr 114 and 120

Just looking at that. Notice the precip is weak though; lets see.

 

[ForsythSnow]

WEDGE really building in hr 114 and 120

Yep, and the high is 3 mb stronger this run.

 

[Tarheel1]

Yep, and the high is 3 mb stronger this run.

Not gonna matter if the precip isn't there

 

[Stormsfury]

Just looking at that. Notice the precip is weak though; lets see.

High TD depression spread. Very dry TDs and still falling at 114 in SC pushing down to GA/SC line to KSAV

 

[Shawn]

32F line well into SC; earlier; much colder. Even to Myrtle.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

So models are beginning to slowly shift towards the more suppressed scenarios....makes sense...confluence in the NE is simply too strong for these waves to trail too far north.

 

[Tarheel1]

32F line well into SC; earlier; much colder. Even to Myrtle.

How's the precip looking?

 

[Shawn]

How's the precip looking?

Bad, but trying.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I don't see much difference back into OK/TX with moisture. a little drier or more spread out, but it's still there.
12Z

0z

 

[Shawn]

Its just slower this run; but colder. ATL in the ZR

 

[Stormsfury]

How's the precip looking?

Meager. Probably a lot of virga based on the high depression spread. Precip developing in TX/OK