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Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, almost everyone has a storm for NC, and quite a few big dogs.Storm 01 - Day 7:
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
How many of those are ice in CAD areas, or is that filtered?Storm 01 - Day 7:
Most are sleet/ice.
Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?
Xtreme Weather
Member
Wish GEFS had an algo for IP/ZR really makes things screwy
Ugggggh ! The word "clap" comes to mind!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Just counted and half of the GEFS are big dogs for here.
THankfully, more sn than ip/ice
MichaelJ
Member
The 12z GEFS is actually down in the number of members IMBY from it's 6z run with appreciable snow/ice. Went from 20/22 down to 16/22, still good odds but not a good trend as it seems to move the snow some northward
I really want this first storm to give a lot of us something! The cold air should be coming in on Wed, a fresh shot, then we get the good moisture, it'll be a nice event. Just want to score something, then the next one would be gravy!
That means everything south of the ZR would be rain??Naw
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Naw
You have a different model, and a different run entirely, that's not the GEFS.
Xtreme Weather
Member
That GFS ice map above is old, from the 00z GFS.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Oops to many tabs open LoL
Stormsfury
Member
FWIW, 13 of 20 GEFS members have frozen precip in the Lowcountry of SC 144hr 12-29-17
As long as the precipitation is there; the CAD is going to win in this situation.
Stormsfury
Member
I can't even go into the OP GFS on 12/31/17. Basically a raging 250mb jet over NC with relatively meager precip breaking out. Haven't checked the omegas but ...
On that note, the CMC looks to have a decent handle on the wedge/precip breaking out which spells the Carolina/GA ice rink a coming
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol the GFS was an outlier once again even vs its own ensemble suite
Nothing like being off by a factor of 10+ on qpf projections
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Storm5
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro looking better through 72
12z UKMET a central and eastern Carolinas winter storm. Probably more snow since it's more suppressed/less amped and the high is really wedged in.
Looking at other frames, the circulation (low) is right along the gulf coast/FL panhandle. Moisture is sparse; but we know that will increase as we get closer. Yes, I see a more ip/sn situation for some with this idea!
RollTide18
Member
That's good news for y'all especially coming from a more reliable model.
EURO pushing that high down through HR72
EURO pushing the precip along nicely at hour 96. looks like that little system we have talked about
We've lost the NAVGEM! Supressed and out to sea! GFS like! 
WEDGE really building in hr 114 and 120
Just looking at that. Notice the precip is weak though; lets see.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, and the high is 3 mb stronger this run.
Not gonna matter if the precip isn't there
Stormsfury
Member
High TD depression spread. Very dry TDs and still falling at 114 in SC pushing down to GA/SC line to KSAV
32F line well into SC; earlier; much colder. Even to Myrtle.
LovingGulfLows
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So models are beginning to slowly shift towards the more suppressed scenarios....makes sense...confluence in the NE is simply too strong for these waves to trail too far north.
How's the precip looking?
Bad, but trying.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't see much difference back into OK/TX with moisture. a little drier or more spread out, but it's still there.
12Z
0z
12Z
0z
Its just slower this run; but colder. ATL in the ZR
Stormsfury
Member
Meager. Probably a lot of virga based on the high depression spread. Precip developing in TX/OK