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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I would also like to note that the euro isn't wet enough either. :| ugh; I was afraid of this. this is a situation where I am hoping for a change, but the GEFS members, Euro, and now the Canadian, within day 6 & 7.
 
Shawn said:
I would also like to note that the euro isn't wet enough either. :| ugh; I was afraid of this. this is a situation where I am hoping for a change, but the GEFS members, Euro, and now the Canadian, within day 6 & 7.
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I was just thinking this same thing. Most of time these op runs under estimate qpf this far out. Normally I'm okay with that in regards to tracking SN, but since this looks to be mainly ZR in my area it's concerning..

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MSnowAtl said:
Not even if the wedge it's stronger.
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I'd imagine the high pressure would have to be much much more powerful to bring enough cold air to the 850mb levels to get it below freezing. It's just unlikely....my only hope is that maybe perhaps the 850s crash on the backside and get some token flakes after the powers out, but with another system right on the heels of this one, that doesn't look like it wants to happen.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Dang not looking good at all thus far for us Midlands folks. Starting to have flashbacks of that ice storm we had some years back and lost power for about 3 days. I know we will see more changes, but concerning nonetheless.[/QUOTE
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I remember being on Shawn's SC weather forum during the 2014 storm and the continuous model runs showing icemageddon for us. Hopefully if this is going to come, things can trend better for us where we end up more sleet than freezing rain.
 
It looks like the circulation (of what's forming) is too far North based on 850 maps for most outside far Northern GA, Upstate SC, Far Northern Midlands, and NC. If some areas are lucky, you'd see the system further South, but then of course, it puts areas like Macon, Inner-Coastal areas of SC, maybe even Savannah in a trouble zone with much higher precip totals.
 
JtSmarts said:
I remember being on Shawn's SC weather forum during the 2014 storm and the continuous model runs showing icemageddon for us. Hopefully if this is going to come, things can trend better for us where we end up more sleet than freezing rain.
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I was on there too. I recall all of that as well as you. I'm hoping as you do, we can get more sleet. This is really making me feel uneasy with more than one model honking now, within 7 days.
 
The Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
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StoneMtnWx said:
The Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
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StoneMtnWx said:
The Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
51ed3213dbab761f55cb678ab9b87b32.jpg
d1675a1ca8cd5e27cf5621f98e262e0e.jpg
cce59cdfdb414d6acc772c41e5ceb691.jpg


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Not happy with this storm
 
Trust me, this is bold for MRX:

"Chances for precip for Wednesday and Wednesday night look
to be mainly across our southern counties, but for Thursday and
Friday better chances of precip spread across the area. There
should be some chances of wintry precip during this time, but it`s
low confidence on how significant this weather system will be in
the latter part of the week."
 
DT up late, putting out free stuff... he teaches us to count in the first part, lol:
 
We are supposed to be leaving next Friday to go to the beach, mainly for golf and looking at a condo to possibly purchase. I would really really REALLY be pissed off if I missed a good winter storm at home. If it looks like it could be a good pending storm I might just have a sit down with my wife and explain why we need to postpone.
 
6z Goof is further south with the 29th-30th storm.. robs southern New England and Mid Atlantic. heh... good for most of Tn and North Carolina.
 
Interesting, if you watch DT's latest video... he explains why a big snowstorm for MA and New England won't happen.. dude may be an ass, but his pattern recognition is second to none.
 
Gfs is all over the place, who knows what will happen. Really.
 
whamby said:
Interesting, if you watch DT's latest video... he explains why a big snowstorm for MA and New England won't happen.. dude may be an ass, but his pattern recognition is second to none.
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JB has been talking about this for over 2 weeks. DT is always behind him. Been listening to both for years. Both are interesting to listen to
 
Shawn said:
I'll be honest and let you know that CAD does not effect all the way down to ATL like it does the Carolinas and NE GA. With that said, the GFS temps are incorrect for all of us. Ignore the ptype maps, and that sounding. The Canadian makes more sense temperature wise.
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It really depends on the strength of the CAD. I brought up about January 2005 last night. We started off in the mid 30s with sleet and spent most of that event in the mid to upper 20s. However, even a weak CAD definitely affects the immediate Atlanta metro area. It doesn't always guarantee wintry precipitation here, but the likelihood is very high. It doesn't even have to be the Winter season, I can't count the number of times CAD has saved Atlanta's butt a lot in severe weather outbreaks also.

EDIT: I think the HP in the January 2005 ice storm was only in the 1020s or 1030. If we have a 1030 or higher HP anchored to our NE, it'll most likely get the job done down here. Anyone know a good website to find archived surface analysis maps from that month/year. It was an end of the month storm, I think around 28th-29th. I know it started on a Friday afternoon and went through all of Saturday.
 
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That 10 day-ish system has been showing up fairly consistently on the GFS anyway! That looks like a classic 80s snowstorm for a good many people on the board!!
 
Weatherlover92 said:
It really depends on the strength of the CAD. I brought up about January 2005 last night. We started off in the mid 30s with sleet and spent most of that event in the mid to upper 20s. However, even a weak CAD definitely affects the immediate Atlanta metro area. It doesn't always guarantee wintry precipitation here, but the likelihood is very high. It doesn't even have to be the Winter season, I can't count the number of times CAD has saved Atlanta's butt a lot in severe weather outbreaks also.

EDIT: I think the HP in the January 2005 ice storm was only in the 1020s or 1030. If we have a 1030 or higher HP anchored to our NE, it'll most likely get the job done down here. Anyone know a good website to find archived surface analysis maps from that month/year. It was an end of the month storm, I think around 28th-29th. I know it started on a Friday afternoon and went through all of Saturday.
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this page has some maps, if you can make sense out of them... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050119/
 
Yeah the eps has many amped warm waves which is why the mean went way down.

00z vs 12z yesterday
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