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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Maybe I'm tired and have had a long work day and am not focusing. Is there a different forum on this board for admittedly newbs to ask stuipd questions?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Did anyone look at the mean out to 384. Was the New Years threat still there? I may have to buckle and renew my weatherbell sub
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Isn't everything free on weather.gov
 
tractor girl said:
Is there a place I can ask questions about the gfs model? not sure if it goes here. Will try, just delete if OT.

Looking at 00z GFS 168hr, and looking at the area around ATL... temps are showing in the mid 40s. P is depected as rain with the blue 540 line way up in TN. What am I not looking at right to show a ZR threat? Are the soundings showing info that I am missing? For ex:
AIaoImM.jpg
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I'll be honest and let you know that CAD does not effect all the way down to ATL like it does the Carolinas and NE GA. With that said, the GFS temps are incorrect for all of us. Ignore the ptype maps, and that sounding. The Canadian makes more sense temperature wise.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Did anyone look at the mean out to 384. Was the New Years threat still there? I may have to buckle and renew my weatherbell sub
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College DuPage has the ensemble members with p types...not as great with graphics was wxbell.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
There is a system just after New year's on some members

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Stormsfury said:
With a pair of 1040mb+ highs, I would say corrections further south, not North are in order.
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The further south it the low moves the more cold air aloft right to have move sleet than freezing rain right? Is my theory wrong?
 
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Hypothetically, lets say the GEFS is correct with the majority of it's members on the first system/setup. The ZR line would likely end up down near Augusta Georgia. Take that whichever way, but the further West you go away from the true CAD region, the warmer you could be. If anything, I'd expect colder temperatures than even the Canadian come verification. The 12KM NAM is a wonderful tool to use for temperature profiles when it gets in range!

Again, that is hypothetical.
 
CMC still crazy with the cold, just slower... looks more correct for the storm though.. I've seen that warm nose while CAD works east of the mountains a zillion times in the past. What's one more time?
 
Euro, with the Canadian look. Ice storm into SC, majorly so far.
 
Even gets it over into GA. Cutoff line around Augusta GA. from what I see. Waiting for details.
 
Yeah, this is bad news for my GA/SC friends. Even Eastern NC so far.
 
Oh boy, these ice maps will not be pretty.
 
Brent said:
that looks like a classic CAD ice storm over there
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Yeah, its cutting off as far South as Augusta like I figured, close to the Canadian. A bit more extreme, will have accumulation maps soon.
 
Hour 156 5H vort maps slow on this site.
acafe923cdfd4b4171d4d5d30e805cd1.jpg


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Shawn said:
Yeah, its cutting off as far South as Augusta like I figured, close to the Canadian. A bit more extreme, will have accumulation maps soon.
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Is the light pink ZR or. More sleet and the dark pink is more. ZR rain?
 
Its cold enough on this run to get snow to Myrtle Beach as it ends. Even the Euro isn't too great with CAD......
 
With the comment about the Euro not being great with CAD; it's resolution is still better than the GFS. So more details about the strength of the cold, at least lines, makes sense.
 
Dang not looking good at all thus far for us Midlands folks. Starting to have flashbacks of that ice storm we had some years back and lost power for about 3 days. I know we will see more changes, but concerning nonetheless.
 
Shawn said:
Man, I just took a look at dewpoints, places like ATL , CAE, CLT, GSP, ATHENS, don't even get out of the 20's the whole duration.
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Just thinking about how we lost power in 2014 In the Midlands.. if this event happen many people many bring in the New Years without power!!:(:(
 
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