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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

1300m said:
You're right, that would certainly be a more complete way to look at it. Perhaps after this active period ends I'll look into that (unless you beat me to it lol).
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Haha thanks yeah I actually noticed a somewhat modest connection between kelvin filtered -VP200 anomalies around 0-60E longitude and winter weather here in the Carolinas a few years ago but didn't take it much further beyond just a year or two of casual observation and noting that the Kelvin Wave probably aids in equatorward rossby wave propagation, but it seems to be ringing true yet again as another burst of -VP will show up over these longitudes just after Christmas, about the same time we have a few threats for wintry weather and we had a burst of -VP about the same time as we had the big snowstorm in western NC on the 8th-9th... Having a CCKW in these longitudes would be equivalent to a phase 8-1 MJO event, even if it's just one that's in the circle of death
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WEATHERBOYROY said:
I know El nino /La nina is just a portion of the forecast puzzle, but I know from what I'm reading most are banking on La nina. We are presently considered to be in a very weak La nina . Also, most of the water north of the Equator is slightly warmer than normal ( especially close to Central America. Judging from the trends over the last few weeks I don't see that area making it to Nina temps , and we may not sustain La nina into January.Therefore I think much of the long range forecast may be off a bit because of the weight put on el nino / lLa nina .
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I certainly see the point you're trying to make, there's no doubt the leftover heat from the last Super El Nino still hasn't effectively dissipated in the subtropical North Pacific and it should be given due consideration in forecasts as a dynamical adjustment from NINA climatology, specifically with the expectation that the Hadley Cell will (once again) be more expansive than is usually observed in a NINA. However, the overall convective structure is very consistent w/ what you'd expect in a La Nina even in the immediate off-equatorial regions of the south Pacific, but there's no doubt the mid-upper level heights are being implicated due to this excess warmth here. The convective anomalies are even more negative than normal in the central Pacific vs a classical NINA.

NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis OLR anomalies since October 1
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ENSO OLR correlation October-December.
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This all isn't to say however that the convective signal and mid-latitude response doesn't vary a lot from NINA to NINA, because it certainly does, in fact even more so than an El Ninos, and this also means ENSO's footprint on our sensible weather is more reliably consistent in an El Nino vs a La Nina in general. Therefore, we can usually put more faith in an El Nino to reproduce a similar pattern over and over again than a La Nina, but why? The large expanse of convection in the western Pacific, Maritime Continent, and eastern Indian Ocean where it's enhanced in a La Nina and dramatic seasonal changes in the position of the ITCZ here relative to the central Pacific means that the placement of convection changes more amongst La Ninas than El Ninos. In the central Pacific where an El Nino acts to enhance convective anomalies here, there's very little change from season-to-season and the convective anomalies are more spatially confined than in the eastern hemisphere. Altering the position of convection changes the trajectory of the downstream Rossby Wave train that emanates from this source of heating, ultimately leading to more variability and more profound week-to-week changes in our weather more often in a La Nina background state vs in an El Nino. Hopefully what I said makes sense.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nice to see we have an effective rotating carousel/conveyor belt of wintry weather opportunities the next few weeks starting after Xmas esp along/north of the I-20 corridor, and there could be more than one storm in this pattern.
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Webb,
Don't violate ethics, but how's about tossing one of those just a tad south of I-10 in FL? ... :rolleyes:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nice to see we have an effective rotating carousel/conveyor belt of wintry weather opportunities the next few weeks starting after Xmas esp along/north of the I-20 corridor, and there could be more than one storm in this pattern.
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If we could get anything close to Dec. 8 it could be special because we'll actually have a snow pack this time.
 
Don't sleep on this threat around day 5-6, the Euro control & UKMET are very close to being a big deal for many on the board esp in the Carolinas. Subtle changes in the evolution of the precipitation shield and embedded frontal waves would put many in business in a heartbeat.
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Webb, is that the one also the 12z gfs was showing next Wednesday? Because my temps were in the upper 30s as it was passing
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
The Midlands of South Carolina would get freezing rain.
Per 12z Euro
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In theory, it'd trend colder and wetter. Either way, I feel like NC is in a much better spot for Wintry weather than the Midlands right now. To get a true CAE hit, you'd want to send this thing across North Central Florida.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Don't sleep on this threat around day 5-6, the Euro control & UKMET are very close to being a big deal for many on the board esp in the Carolinas. Subtle changes in the evolution of the precipitation shield and embedded frontal waves would put many in business in a heartbeat.
View attachment 2192
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After taking a look at the dewpoint maps and precipitation rate, it'd be light enough for even areas in the 30-31F area to not even have enough latent heat if those maps were to come correct. Might need to watch that for a bigger deal than what it looks like. 0.25 inches of ice + can cause bigger problems.
 
Storm5 said:
NE is crushed . They always win no matter what pattern
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Except to the ones who aren’t snow lovers which is probably the majority up there. I bet this map is a loss to them and all the shoveling they will be doing. As much as I like snow I’ve always wondered how quickly I’d get sick of it if I lived near the lakes and got 100-200 inches of snow a year.
 
olhausen said:
Except to the ones who aren’t snow lovers which is probably the majority up there. I bet this map is a loss to them and all the shoveling they will be doing. As much as I like snow I’ve always wondered how quickly I’d get sick of it if I lived near the lakes and got 100-200 inches of snow a year.
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Snow is a lot more special in the south because its so rare. I imagine living in a place that got 100"+ a year, snow wouldnt seem quite as fun.... Especially after around late January or February. Im sure the first two or three snows of the season would be fun.
 
Shawn said:
After taking a look at the dewpoint maps and precipitation rate, it'd be light enough for even areas in the 30-31F area to not even have enough latent heat if those maps were to come correct. Might need to watch that for a bigger deal than what it looks like. 0.25 inches of ice + can cause bigger problems.
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Could this become a Midlands of South Carolina threat?
 
olhausen said:
Except to the ones who aren’t snow lovers which is probably the majority up there. I bet this map is a loss to them and all the shoveling they will be doing. As much as I like snow I’ve always wondered how quickly I’d get sick of it if I lived near the lakes and got 100-200 inches of snow a year.
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I know you've said that you've wanted to move north sometime in the future (back??), but the perfect place for you to get enough snow to enjoy but not too much may be East TN/WNC at some elevation or West Virginia.
 
Well to me I thought verbatim this doesn't look cold enough for many on the board including my area in Atlanta metro. But hey, thanks for mentioning it because I was about to sleep on it but now out of respect for you I'll keep an eye out. @Webberweather53
 
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