• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

This screams brief snow to ip to zr back to snow for the cad regions.
dbc82e3973e0ce13335a4768e32648ff.jpg
62cd9aafb35d536bd7c90c184f3fa2b8.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I know you've said that you've wanted to move north sometime in the future (back??), but the perfect place for you to get enough snow to enjoy but not too much may be East TN/WNC at some elevation or West Virginia.
Click to expand...
I think he said his ideal place to live would be along the I-70 corridor from Indy to Columbus. Those areas average about 2 feet per year. So its a good bit of snow but not so much that you get sick of it.
 
So do we have three possible systems the next 7 to 10 days? Middle of next week, next Friday/Saturday, and around the first of the year?
 
Has to be watched. Here is the GFS with precipitation starting, and by the majority end. These maps are the wetbulb temps; basically, based on temp & dewpoint, what evaporational cooling would do:

GFSMA_sfc_wetblb_150.png


GFSMA_sfc_wetblb_171.png



To further this idea, the here is my back yard; as far South as Lexington, SC:

myby_01.png


myby_02.png


my_by_03.png


A 1 or 2 degree difference changes things dramatically. So those to the North, keep a watch.
 
Bump if appropriate, but an observation ...
A week ago, we were supposed to be "cold" by N FL standards from the 24th through New Year; now NWS has 70's / 50's; not complaining but the lack of consistency and forecasting skill (models and NWS) is at best disconcerting ... :(
 
SD said:
The gfs is really trending slower/farther SW with the low in 50/50 position. If you look at the heights in the east over the last few runs you can see them compressing and sagging south as the low stays closer.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Surprised Rah already mentioning snow for Thurs night Friday...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Surprised Rah already mentioning snow for Thurs night Friday...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I read that., rolled my eyes, and said kiss of death. The setup is certainly there though but we've seen better squandered

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
Bump if appropriate, but an observation ...
A week ago, we were supposed to be "cold" by N FL standards from the 24th through New Year; now NWS has 70's / 50's; not complaining but the lack of consistency and forecasting skill (models and NWS) is at best disconcerting ... :(
Click to expand...

For my area the models were showing the exact opposite a week ago. Lots of upper 50s and even mid 60s the gfs was showing. Now it’s looking like lots of upper 30s and low 40s for highs starting tomorrow. Heck even the last few days were supposed to be upper 50s to around 60 but I’ve been stuck around 52 since yesterday.

Edit: Just checked my temp gauge and I’m at 57 after being at 52 around noon so it looks like it was right for today.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Can someone post EPS temps for Atlanta? I'm just worried it won't be cold enough for much winter precipitation besides NC like y'all keep posting
Click to expand...

You wanna see some real cold, don't have to go very far. EPS keeps Roanoke, VA below freezing for nearly a week and a half and the mean is already depicting single digits lows haha
KROA_2017122212_forecast_EPS_360.png
 
Storm5 said:
18z gfs is more agressive this run with the midweek system

Would help many coming in overnight Wednesday vs during the day
Click to expand...

Getting inside day 5 so these surface pressures aren't quite as unrealistic (probably still a tad overdone), but that's a huge CAD signature on the GFS. If the GFS is seeing a big CAD event... run.
gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_23.png
 
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png
 
Clayton Reid said:
Thanks. Puts me a little more at ease about possible winter weather. Would like to see it trend colder tho.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind those temps are likely in the city. Outside and to the north definitely it’ll be a few degrees cooler as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
View attachment 2197
Click to expand...
Yeah at 162 it tries to erode the wedge and flips RDU to rain, no way. We would stay frozen in that scenario
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
View attachment 2197
Click to expand...
Well in any case it doesn't look like this is the winter storm many on the board, including Atlanta. Doesn't look like much of a winter storm at all mostly cold rain. Don't think it'll get any colder to change it around.​
 
Not that I want an ice storm, but considering how much this ice event is being honked...I wonder if the wedge is being underestimated? Because like I said, CAD has a mind of it's own with temps. If there's a CAD like situation, I can be at least a few degrees colder than what's forecasted.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well in any case it doesn't look like this is the winter storm many on the board, including Atlanta. Doesn't look like much of a winter storm at all mostly cold rain. Don't think it'll get any colder to change it around.​
Click to expand...
As Webber said, CAD events are always underestimated. A strong CAD can easily make it to ATL. It’s going to be close , it always is in ATL.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Not that I want an ice storm, but considering how much this ice event is being honked...I wonder if the wedge is being underestimated? Because like I said, CAD has a mind of it's own with temps. If there's a CAD like situation, I can be at least a few degrees colder than what's forecasted.
Click to expand...
It is. GFS erodes the wedge way to quick
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top