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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Clayton Reid said:
Can someone post EPS temps for Atlanta? I'm just worried it won't be cold enough for much winter precipitation besides NC like y'all keep posting
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Done
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Clayton Reid said:
Can someone post EPS temps for Atlanta? I'm just worried it won't be cold enough for much winter precipitation besides NC like y'all keep posting
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You wanna see some real cold, don't have to go very far. EPS keeps Roanoke, VA below freezing for nearly a week and a half and the mean is already depicting single digits lows haha
KROA_2017122212_forecast_EPS_360.png
 
Storm5 said:
18z gfs is more agressive this run with the midweek system

Would help many coming in overnight Wednesday vs during the day
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Getting inside day 5 so these surface pressures aren't quite as unrealistic (probably still a tad overdone), but that's a huge CAD signature on the GFS. If the GFS is seeing a big CAD event... run.
gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_23.png
 
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
View attachment 2197
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Yeah at 162 it tries to erode the wedge and flips RDU to rain, no way. We would stay frozen in that scenario
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't recall too many times I've seen an ice storm show up at least w/ modest consistency on the GFS in the Carolinas, the non-local mixing scheme in the model usually eradicates most of these potential threats and leads to its bias to underestimate CAD until it's blatantly obvious an ice storm is coming. The model's surface parameterization issues are likely offsetting this a bit because that surface high might be a wee bit too strong in SE Canada over fresh snow cover.
View attachment 2197
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Well in any case it doesn't look like this is the winter storm many on the board, including Atlanta. Doesn't look like much of a winter storm at all mostly cold rain. Don't think it'll get any colder to change it around.​
 
Not that I want an ice storm, but considering how much this ice event is being honked...I wonder if the wedge is being underestimated? Because like I said, CAD has a mind of it's own with temps. If there's a CAD like situation, I can be at least a few degrees colder than what's forecasted.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well in any case it doesn't look like this is the winter storm many on the board, including Atlanta. Doesn't look like much of a winter storm at all mostly cold rain. Don't think it'll get any colder to change it around.​
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As Webber said, CAD events are always underestimated. A strong CAD can easily make it to ATL. It’s going to be close , it always is in ATL.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Not that I want an ice storm, but considering how much this ice event is being honked...I wonder if the wedge is being underestimated? Because like I said, CAD has a mind of it's own with temps. If there's a CAD like situation, I can be at least a few degrees colder than what's forecasted.
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It is. GFS erodes the wedge way to quick
 
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