that'll more than likely change.prayers must be getting answered up their... really no one is getting big snows up north outside that little stretch of lake effect couple weeks ago
that'll more than likely change.prayers must be getting answered up their... really no one is getting big snows up north outside that little stretch of lake effect couple weeks ago
I've gotten plenty of bad ice storms with an Ohio valley cutter, and TN highs in the 50!The CAD signature is stronger because the low-level warm air advection at 850 hPa is stronger as a consequence of the low pressure track being further NW than previous suites, however if the low trends so far NW like GFS shows and it ends up deep into the OH Valley, we'll have to contend w/ divergence over the CAD dome which makes CAD dome increasingly shallow
They don't support it... yet, but there's a very clear trend in recent runs towards a bigger warm-up, won't be long before we see positive anomalies again over the SE US if this continues... Again, for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and GA, the increasing WAA over top of a residual arctic airmass could mean the anomalies are still below-well below normal beneath 850 hPa
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i think your confusing yourself . At 12z you said it’s the system after christmas which is the system the ensembles are showing . You keep kicking the canLol, the system after Christmas isn't the winter storm for the SE US. The time frame to be watching is 29th-3rd.
I don’t disagree at all I’m just skeptical of it all . The pacific is flying , how do we even know the models are keying the right energy . We are also taking the epo ridge rolling to the east at face value . That’s gonna play a key roll in suppressing the flow across the southern tier. Too many questions for me to buy into anything warm or cold
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I can see why there's reason to be skeptical but it's kinda funny how everyone (not saying just you or saying you've done this) is quick to take the bait on a cold pattern but then will express very stout skepticism when the potential warmer pattern or solution is on the table, this is just as if not more legitimate than the outrageously cold solutions everyone was losing their mind over the past several days...
May I be just a bit diametrical?But I think all the models are struggling with this pattern
Smh, no, I am not confusing myself. As of now, there looks to be 2 system's after Christmas. The first one isn't going to bring winter weather for the SE US (cutter.) It's the 2nd system after the cutter. Geez, I'll just be quiet and just read for now on. Everything I say has to turn into an argument.Gfs vs euro take your pick
i think your confusing yourself . At 12z you said it’s the system after christmas which is the system the ensembles are showing . You keep kicking the can
False hope for anything outside 7 days tbh lolFor those that didn't stay around for the end of the 18z run, this looked promising:
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Welcome to the Club ... freeze back on!Smh, no, I am not confusing myself. As of now, there looks to be 2 system's after Christmas. The first one isn't going to bring winter weather for the SE US (cutter.) It's the 2nd system after the cutter. Geez, I'll just be quiet and just read for now on. Everything I say has to turn into an argument.
The gefs looks good the 27th-30th the Carolina mean is gonna be fairly big. Lots of icy cad members
I'll concede it's not an ideal trend but just for arguments sake..The CAD signature is stronger because the low-level warm air advection at 850 hPa is stronger as a consequence of the low pressure track being further NW than previous suites, however if the low trends so far NW like GFS shows and it ends up deep into the OH Valley, we'll have to contend w/ divergence over the CAD dome which makes CAD dome increasingly shallow
you should see the frame right after this..For those that didn't stay around for the end of the 18z run, this looked promising:
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Oh a two inch mean in the south isn’t big ? It’s not as big as 12z but do we expect the ensembles to hold the same average every run ?Yeah...not really...![]()
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Oh a two inch mean in the south isn’t big ? It’s not as big as 12z but do we expect the ensembles to hold the same average every run ?
This is a doggone shame! All this excitement for nothing! We are truly pitiful in the South!
Yeah, its a good thing to see the GEFS doesn't seem to agree with the OP run. Hopefully we aren't starting a trend.Just a little different lol
18z gfs
18z gefs![]()
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I put the wrong time stamp image the correct one is above . But yeah it’s good to seeYeah, its a good thing to see the GEFS doesn't seem to agree with the OP run. Hopefully we aren't starting a trend.
Why is the op run so different from its on ensemble?Just a little different lol
18z gfs
18z gefs![]()
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Not yet. The crude maps go to hour 144 and the detailed maps to hr 72.Shouldn't we be into UKMET range??
Beat me to the punch ... so well said, SD ...Models are struggling quite a bit with the orientation and amplitude of the western ridge. Every model run has a different outcome in the Pacific and that leads to a different look regionally. Until the models iron out that construct the variability will continue from run to run. I'm staying the course of it gets cold after Christmas and I hope to reel something in. Can't ask for much more
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From what I can tell the 18Z run just dumped the upper level energy into Cali, which therefore buckled the flow downstream and forced up ridging in the SE. Not likely at all given the ensembles, but goes to show in this pattern how much the ops will struggle.Why is the op run so different from its on ensemble?
My thing it feels like every winter we do this with the Pacific and each winter it causes an uproar. Let that ridge get in place before getting too up or down about what they show at home. Simply undercutting the ridge or having a cleaner ridge with more amplitude has significant downstream effects.Beat me to the punch ... so well said, SD ...![]()
Yeah it would definitely be in your best interest not to go there especially considering aside from what I do outside the classroom I'm already in my 4th year at state, have already said multiple times I am not biased towards warm weather lol if anything the majority of members here have a substantial cold/snow bias (righhfully so), but I'm not here to make everyone happy and tell them what they want to hearDoes Webber consider this before he starts spewing his warm weather bias agenda or has he not gotten that far in school yet. Hahaha! Sorry, couldn't help myself. I know banter thread. Carry on.
Why is the op run so different from its on ensemble?
Yep looking at the spaghetti plots and clusters ftwBecause the ensemble mean is just that a average of all the ensemble members. Personally the ensembles mean nothing unless they are in the same ballpark. Looking at the mean tells you little if you are having a few extreme members skewing the average.
Note, I'm not saying it is happening here, but I would say to not totally discount the OP just because of the mean.
Oh a two inch mean in the south isn’t big ? It’s not as big as 12z but do we expect the ensembles to hold the same average every run ?