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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

it's only December let's not panic and start lining up on the cliff just yet
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD signature is stronger because the low-level warm air advection at 850 hPa is stronger as a consequence of the low pressure track being further NW than previous suites, however if the low trends so far NW like GFS shows and it ends up deep into the OH Valley, we'll have to contend w/ divergence over the CAD dome which makes CAD dome increasingly shallow
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I've gotten plenty of bad ice storms with an Ohio valley cutter, and TN highs in the 50!
 
Webberweather53 said:
They don't support it... yet, but there's a very clear trend in recent runs towards a bigger warm-up, won't be long before we see positive anomalies again over the SE US if this continues... Again, for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and GA, the increasing WAA over top of a residual arctic airmass could mean the anomalies are still below-well below normal beneath 850 hPa
View attachment 2152
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I don’t disagree at all I’m just skeptical of it all . The pacific is flying , how do we even know the models are keying the right energy . We are also taking the epo ridge rolling to the east at face value . That’s gonna play a key roll in suppressing the flow across the southern tier. Too many questions for me to buy into anything warm or cold


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Not jumping ship but have been pretty hopeful about good winter weather this year. Guess my expectations need to be more realistic considering this is a Nina season. Honestly just ready for a Nino year again maybe then it’ll be easier on everyone.
 
Gfs vs euro take your pick
WeatherWatch said:
Lol, the system after Christmas isn't the winter storm for the SE US. The time frame to be watching is 29th-3rd.
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i think your confusing yourself . At 12z you said it’s the system after christmas which is the system the ensembles are showing . You keep kicking the can
 
Storm5 said:
I don’t disagree at all I’m just skeptical of it all . The pacific is flying , how do we even know the models are keying the right energy . We are also taking the epo ridge rolling to the east at face value . That’s gonna play a key roll in suppressing the flow across the southern tier. Too many questions for me to buy into anything warm or cold


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I can see why there's reason to be skeptical but it's kinda funny how everyone (not saying just you or saying you've done this) is quick to take the bait on a cold pattern but then will express very stout skepticism when the potential warmer pattern or solution is on the table, this is just as if not more legitimate than the outrageously cold solutions everyone was losing their mind over the past several days...
 
For those that didn't stay around for the end of the 18z run, this looked promising:
prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I can see why there's reason to be skeptical but it's kinda funny how everyone (not saying just you or saying you've done this) is quick to take the bait on a cold pattern but then will express very stout skepticism when the potential warmer pattern or solution is on the table, this is just as if not more legitimate than the outrageously cold solutions everyone was losing their mind over the past several days...
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That’s winter in south . Late night fantasy cold on the gfs . I’m not sure many people took those runs seriously on the strength of the cold . People freak because some of those runs rivaled winters of the past and they were not around to experience them . No doubt I have a cold bias it last well documented . Im not ashamed lol

I agree with you 100 percent there is no doubt the cold shot is moderating next week .m


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Storm5 said:
Gfs vs euro take your pick

i think your confusing yourself . At 12z you said it’s the system after christmas which is the system the ensembles are showing . You keep kicking the can
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Smh, no, I am not confusing myself. As of now, there looks to be 2 system's after Christmas. The first one isn't going to bring winter weather for the SE US (cutter.) It's the 2nd system after the cutter. Geez, I'll just be quiet and just read for now on. Everything I say has to turn into an argument.
 
These last few op runs is why I generally just watch the GEFS and EPS, especially 5-7 days out or more. I don't know what it is going to do for sure but neither does anyone else. That being the case, both the warmers and the colders should chill a little and not live and die on each run. Once both major models (don't consider the CMC or JMA as majors) come into better agreement on the trend, then we can have a little confidence what might happen (notice all the wiggle words, they are there for a reason)
 
WeatherWatch said:
Smh, no, I am not confusing myself. As of now, there looks to be 2 system's after Christmas. The first one isn't going to bring winter weather for the SE US (cutter.) It's the 2nd system after the cutter. Geez, I'll just be quiet and just read for now on. Everything I say has to turn into an argument.
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Welcome to the Club ... freeze back on!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD signature is stronger because the low-level warm air advection at 850 hPa is stronger as a consequence of the low pressure track being further NW than previous suites, however if the low trends so far NW like GFS shows and it ends up deep into the OH Valley, we'll have to contend w/ divergence over the CAD dome which makes CAD dome increasingly shallow
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I'll concede it's not an ideal trend but just for arguments sake..
packfan98 said:
For those that didn't stay around for the end of the 18z run, this looked promising:
prateptype_cat.conus.png
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you should see the frame right after this..

*face palm*
 
Storm5 said:
Oh a two inch mean in the south isn’t big ? It’s not as big as 12z but do we expect the ensembles to hold the same average every run ?
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I’m just messing with you Charlie. All I care about at this pt is a storm Signal...Stop trolling me like I just trolled you


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I'm taking the 12z Euro and running like hell. Could not draw a more perfect storm for Tennessee with a magic marker.
 
Shouldn't we be into UKMET range??
 
Models are struggling quite a bit with the orientation and amplitude of the western ridge. Every model run has a different outcome in the Pacific and that leads to a different look regionally. Until the models iron out that construct the variability will continue from run to run. I'm staying the course of it gets cold after Christmas and I hope to reel something in. Can't ask for much more

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SD said:
Models are struggling quite a bit with the orientation and amplitude of the western ridge. Every model run has a different outcome in the Pacific and that leads to a different look regionally. Until the models iron out that construct the variability will continue from run to run. I'm staying the course of it gets cold after Christmas and I hope to reel something in. Can't ask for much more

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Beat me to the punch ... so well said, SD ... ;)
 
ItsClimateChange said:
Why is the op run so different from its on ensemble?
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From what I can tell the 18Z run just dumped the upper level energy into Cali, which therefore buckled the flow downstream and forced up ridging in the SE. Not likely at all given the ensembles, but goes to show in this pattern how much the ops will struggle.
 
pcbjr said:
Beat me to the punch ... so well said, SD ... ;)
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My thing it feels like every winter we do this with the Pacific and each winter it causes an uproar. Let that ridge get in place before getting too up or down about what they show at home. Simply undercutting the ridge or having a cleaner ridge with more amplitude has significant downstream effects.

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ItsClimateChange said:
Does Webber consider this before he starts spewing his warm weather bias agenda or has he not gotten that far in school yet. Hahaha! Sorry, couldn't help myself. I know banter thread. Carry on.
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Yeah it would definitely be in your best interest not to go there especially considering aside from what I do outside the classroom I'm already in my 4th year at state, have already said multiple times I am not biased towards warm weather lol if anything the majority of members here have a substantial cold/snow bias (righhfully so), but I'm not here to make everyone happy and tell them what they want to hear
 
ItsClimateChange said:
Why is the op run so different from its on ensemble?
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Because the ensemble mean is just that a average of all the ensemble members. Personally the ensembles mean nothing unless they are in the same ballpark. Looking at the mean tells you little if you are having a few extreme members skewing the average.

Note, I'm not saying it is happening here, but I would say to not totally discount the OP just because of the mean.
 
Arcc said:
Because the ensemble mean is just that a average of all the ensemble members. Personally the ensembles mean nothing unless they are in the same ballpark. Looking at the mean tells you little if you are having a few extreme members skewing the average.

Note, I'm not saying it is happening here, but I would say to not totally discount the OP just because of the mean.
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Yep looking at the spaghetti plots and clusters ftw

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Storm5 said:
Oh a two inch mean in the south isn’t big ? It’s not as big as 12z but do we expect the ensembles to hold the same average every run ?
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Depends. Is most of the ensembles showing a half inch to an inch, or most showing nothing with two showing twelve inches.
 
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