• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
Is there a credible Winter storm threat in the South on Christmas yet? We don't want to split the conversation off between the two threads, as valuable information will get lost in the process. From what I see, I don't see too much of a big threat, yet.
Click to expand...
There's a credible threat for major cold, so that alone may be worth starting a thread for ?
 
Shawn said:
Is there a credible Winter storm threat in the South on Christmas yet? We don't want to split the conversation off between the two threads, as valuable information will get lost in the process. From what I see, I don't see too much of a big threat, yet.
Click to expand...
No, there isn't a credible winter storm at this time, but I think it has the potential of becoming something more significant.
 
Shawn said:
Okay, I am trying to get my hands on two books by Ludlum, He wrote two volumes of books for Winter weather in the South from the 1600's to 1800's or some range like that. I'll get back to you guys if I get my hands on them.

I know looking at it, he was missing some key stuff during the Civil War. I have personally read some of Sherman's army journals from soldiers that had multiple snow and ice events here in the South, including Columbia that is not documented anywhere I have found.
Click to expand...

Definitely would be interesting to see the result from that, but the ENSO record is pretty bad before the Civil War esp wrt detecting La Ninas
 
LetItSnow said:
18z gfs 73 degrees on 12/26
20171217 - 0z gfs 27 degrees on 12/26
20171217 - 6z gfs 43 degrees on 12/26
20171217 - 12z gfs 71 degrees on 12/26
20171217 18z gfs 56 degrees on 12/26

Atlanta's new drinking game for those who drink; every 10 degree difference per model run is a shot
Click to expand...

NoSnowATL said:
I would be dead by Tuesday!
Click to expand...

You have had about 12 hours to recover..
20171218 0z gfs 40 degrees on 12/26
20171218 06z gfs 42 degrees on 12/26
20171218 12z gfs 34 degrees on 12/26
 
Yeah, I don't think the GFS showing two possible White Christmas's for just maybe half of this board to experience, or even less, while it's been VEEERRRRYYYY spotty and we don't even know if whether it's done flipping back and forth from warm to cold, is enough to start the thread yet.

Let's see if this thing at least stabilizes and we see some credibility of a threat on another model. A threat showing on the 0z would be a start, but I'd like for this to at least go through to at least 12z tomorrow.
 
Stormdoc said:
I know most of us are focused on Christmas, but I am happy to see all the ensembles have the southeast in a normal to well below normal pattern throughout the end of their runs.
Click to expand...
After Christmas of course. Euro ensemble is about a day slower with the front, otherwise pretty good agreement on the upcoming pattern.
 
I'm doing this outside of normal logic cause we are still way long range...but NAM particular closer to last event was on money so on NAM by comparison the 18z NAM to the 12z GFS at 18z Thursday is similar with NAM pushing the cold maybe 50 miles further SE with the Cold and pretty similar at 84... still several days out of it touching on the period of Christmas and Artic input
 
Someone in the deep SE needs to repent, and do so post-haste; do it privately but please do so to remove the scourge (for the sake of your neighbors) ...

610temp.new.gif

:confused:
 
Shawn said:
Okay, I am trying to get my hands on two books by Ludlum, He wrote two volumes of books for Winter weather in the South from the 1600's to 1800's or some range like that. I'll get back to you guys if I get my hands on them.

I know looking at it, he was missing some key stuff during the Civil War. I have personally read some of Sherman's army journals from soldiers that had multiple snow and ice events here in the South, including Columbia that is not documented anywhere I have found.
Click to expand...

Since winter of 1876-7. ATL major SN/IP: 39 storms

- 17 El Nino: 7 strong, 4 mod, 6 weak
- 12 Neutral (5 warm, 7 cold)
- 10 La Nina: 2 strong, 4 mod, 4 weak

Note only 2 during strong La Nina, which is intuitive to me. The big difference is between strong Nino (7) and strong Nina (2), which is again intuitive to me. Interestingly, one of the biggest snowstorms was during strong La Nina (Jan 1893).

- Though weak to mod El Ninos have had their share of major SN/IP at ATL, they are actually most notable for being the coldest SE winters on average by a good margin.
- Cold neutral has by far had the largest # of major ZRs at ATL of any phase.


edited for typo
 
Last edited:
pcbjr said:
Someone in the deep SE needs to repent, and do so post-haste; do it privately but please do so to remove the scourge (for the sake of your neighbors) ...

610temp.new.gif

:confused:
Click to expand...
You can have some of the cold up here. Forecast high is 31 for Christmas Day but if it's not going to snow i'd rather it be a little warmer.
 
pcbjr said:
Someone in the deep SE needs to repent, and do so post-haste; do it privately but please do so to remove the scourge (for the sake of your neighbors) ...

610temp.new.gif

:confused:
Click to expand...
You see the boundary where the orange meets the blue? That's where our once in a lifetime winter storm is going to ride in 12 days. Buckle up
 
Why I think something may turn out to be more significant? Have to watch the baroclinc zone again, just like the last winter event. The short wave that drops down over the Rockies is a sheared short wave. So, the model's are having a hard time depicting the best solution. The models may not show anything significant until the day of, or 2 or 3 days prior to the event. We could start to see more of a curvature within the short wave, especially lee of the Rockies as there is deepening of the surface low via potentially vorticity advection.

So, I think at some point, there will be a much stronger surface low developing around the TX panhandle region and making it's way south along the Gulf coast as the lower heights via PV pushes the low. The surface low may enter the right entry point of the baroclinic zone somewhere between MS coast to the FL panhandle. This would make area's along and west, south of the APPs to receive snow from the system. The Carolina's may end up having back side snow/sleet.
 
Looks like a major snowstorm in Minnesota and upper midwest for Thursday. Maybe we can build some snowpack to the north.
 
Glenn Burns posted a map on Facebook showing snow on Christmas Day in Atlanta. People are already freaking out ! He does mention that if the Euro is right it will be warmer with no snow.
 
SAV is -0.4 month to date. They haven't had a below normal month since Jan of 2016 and the next few days will put them a little above normal. So, it will be up to the last week of the month getting a good dump of cold in order for them to finally get a below normal month. Let's see what happens.

Next up: Happy Hour, the run that allows us to relax thank goodness.
 
And I thought the weather mets on the news were conservative about winter weather.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top