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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SoutheastRidge said:
I thought your area had snow around Halloween 2014 ?
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The big winners in the situation were Lexington, SC. Southern Lexington, SC recorded 5 inches or so that melted away quickly as the sun poked back out. It was a freak upper level low that came way too far South for the time of the year. Things just "worked" out. Parts of Columbia, SC (in fact, most) had barely a trace.

I went to sleep the night before laughing at the HRRR & NAM having very heavy snow here. Whoops.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not yet. We had a thread for a system that didn't quite happen as everyone was excited after the last storm, and then there was already a thread that was way too early for Christmas. Thursday or late Wednesday at the earliest I would say.
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Well not necessarily at least for the thread I created after the big storm. That clipper on the 13th actually produced some light snow/graupel mainly just north of the Triangle area in NC (as noted by Allan Huffman in Youngsville) & another batch of showers associated w/ a clipper and augmented by the Great Lakes crossed north-central NC the day prior w/ some token flakes which was about all we were anticipating from a setup like that...
December 12 2017 NC Snow map.png
 
Storm5 said:
And finally through day 9
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I’ll take it!
 
Shawn said:
The original hit was a rarity, it could happen again, of course. Any situation with a slow moving/and or stalled out front with waves of low pressure riding along them. In fact the 1973 storm that dropped our record snow was a stalled out boundary a low rode.

Anyways, it is a La Nina year. If anything, it favors more of an icy situation during pattern shifts around these parts. Not giant snow storms. Not to say they have not happened before, but they aren't common by any means.

I like mild to moderate El Nino for the central SC areas.
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Here in the Midlands where we live, I don't think a snowstorm is ever favored. An icy solution is normally what we get. But to me, I don't care what it is. I just want to have a winter storm and actually be put under a winter storm warning instead of being missed by 45 miles like we always do. Usually when we are hit, we get two storms. 2010, 2011, and 2014 were good examples of this even though 2010 featured on large snow storm with a couple close calls mixed in. 2004 could even be mentioned with the severe ice storm then almost getting slammed by the storm in late February but missed by 20 miles. We are due here.
 
Robert West said:
Here in the Midlands where we live, I don't think a snowstorm is ever favored. An icy solution is normally what we get. But to me, I don't care what it is. I just want to have a winter storm and actually be put under a winter storm warning instead of being missed by 45 miles like we always do. Usually when we are hit, we get two storms. 2010, 2011, and 2014 were good examples of this even though 2010 featured on large snow storm with a couple close calls mixed in. 2004 could even be mentioned with the severe ice storm then almost getting slammed by the storm in late February but missed by 20 miles. We are due here.
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2004 - Weak El Nino
2010 - Moderate to Strong El Nino.
2011 - Moderate Moving to Strong La Nina
2014 - Weak El Nino
 
Shawn said:
2004 - Weak El Nino
2010 - Moderate to Strong El Nino.
2011 - Moderate Moving to Strong La Nina
2014 - Weak El Nino
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2010, 2011, 2014 all great winters in GA. So I guess having mod to strong El Nino, La Nina, or a Weak El Nino doesn't really matter when it comes to cold and snow in the south.
 
Eps is slowly coming around to the idea of a little frozen precip for western areas of the region like the gefs has been showing for days
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SoutheastRidge said:
2010, 2011, 2014 all great winters in GA. So I guess having mod to strong El Nino, La Nina, or a Weak El Nino doesn't really matter when it to cold and snow in the south.
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There's more to it than that, of course. Larry is the king of all that stuff, I just posted data from a chart I have; lol.
 
Shawn said:
The big winners in the situation were Lexington, SC. Southern Lexington, SC recorded 5 inches or so that melted away quickly as the sun poked back out. It was a freak upper level low that came way too far South for the time of the year. Things just "worked" out. Parts of Columbia, SC (in fact, most) had barely a trace.

I went to sleep the night before laughing at the HRRR & NAM having very heavy snow here. Whoops.
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Didn't snow a flake in Irmo where I lived at the time. Drove 5 mins into Lexington, the roads were covered in snow. Very isolated cold pocket of air aloft created a very isolated heavy snow.. crazy.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really don't know the answer to that one especially when there's a small sample size of years and events...
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The majority of larger storms for the Midlands of SC have occured during El Nino type years from my over-generalization. I am not sure of all the details, but one would assume a wetter and chiller east (more chances) is why. We also have had our fair share of rain while those to our North and West raked in the snow in El Nino years.

Also, Im not even factoring in the NAO indexes or anything. That wildly changes things too. It's not just El Nino vs La Nina.. but I prefer an El Nino here for better chances imby.
 
Lol didnt mean to start it early. Its just its @Christmas Day anyways. Millions of U.S. citizens will rely on weather in the days leading up to and on Christmas. Tis the season. Hopefully we still have a threat by Wednesday to open the thread back up. Im dreaming of a White XMAS!
 
stormcentral said:
Lol didnt mean to start it early. Its just its @Christmas Day anyways. Millions of U.S. citizens will rely on weather in the days leading up to and on Christmas. Tis the season. Hopefully we still have a threat by Wednesday to open the thread back up. Im dreaming of a White XMAS!
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I’d dream of an icy christmas ....
 
Shawn said:
The majority of larger storms for the Midlands of SC have occured during El Nino type years from my over-generalization. I am not sure of all the details, but one would assume a wetter and chiller east (more chances) is why. We also have had our fair share of rain while those to our North and West raked in the snow in El Nino years.

Also, Im not even factoring in the NAO indexes or anything. That wildly changes things too. It's not just El Nino vs La Nina.. but I prefer an El Nino here for better chances imby.
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Since the winter of 1886-87, (w/ the inclusion of the Dec 1886 storm), there's no statistically significant difference in snowfall between El Nino and La Nina winters in Columbia with the mean and median in NINOs only being a tad higher than La Ninas. It honestly doesnt snow often enough in the SC midlands and/or we don't have enough data points to draw any confident conclusions wrt snowfall and ENSO... If you remove the 1972-73 winter in the NINO group, the NINA group actually has more snow. Yeah, we really don't the answer to this one
 
Webberweather53 said:
Since the winter of 1886-87, (w/ the inclusion of the Dec 1886 storm), there's no statistically significant difference in snowfall between El Nino and La Nina winters in Columbia with the mean and median in NINOs only being a tad higher than La Ninas. It honestly doesnt snow often enough in the SC midlands and/or we don't have enough data points to draw any confident conclusions wrt snowfall and ENSO... If you remove the 1972-73 winter in the NINO group, the NINA group actually has more snow. Yeah, we really don't the answer to this one
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Okay, I am trying to get my hands on two books by Ludlum, He wrote two volumes of books for Winter weather in the South from the 1600's to 1800's or some range like that. I'll get back to you guys if I get my hands on them.

I know looking at it, he was missing some key stuff during the Civil War. I have personally read some of Sherman's army journals from soldiers that had multiple snow and ice events here in the South, including Columbia that is not documented anywhere I have found.
 
Shawn said:
Okay, I am trying to get my hands on two books by Ludlum, He wrote two volumes of books for Winter weather in the South from the 1600's to 1800's or some range like that. I'll get back to you guys if I get my hands on them.

I know looking at it, he was missing some key stuff during the Civil War. I have personally read some of Sherman's army journals from soldiers that had multiple snow and ice events here in the South, including Columbia that is not documented anywhere I have found.
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I'd be super interested in that.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Is the thread going to reopen after this evening's 18z GFS run?
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Is there a credible Winter storm threat in the South on Christmas yet? We don't want to split the conversation off between the two threads, as valuable information will get lost in the process. From what I see, I don't see too much of a big threat, yet.
 
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