Man I swear, and this is me being a hater too. But if the same areas in MS, AL, and GA get hit again then i'm going to be extremely pissed off. Us in Central SC are due. It's normally every 3-4 year here.
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
- Thread starter GaWx
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- inspired by mack
NCSNOW
Member
Well, it turned out colder after all late in the 12Z Euro run vs the 0Z Euro in the SE.
Surprised morning temps are so warm around where Phil lives. Usually a good arctic outbreak will push temps well below freezing deep into FL.
NorthBamaWeather
Member
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- Dec 3, 2016
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I think it's time to open the thread.
Interesting...
Hopefully i still get to be the starter
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Can we call it " SER screws us out of a cold Christmas " or just " SER sucks"! ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ridge extended all the way into the Canadian Arctic and Greenland this run beyond day 5-6, that's really hard to do and sustain even in a great pattern unless there's already a decent anticyclone over Greenland...
Usmeagle2005
Member
I promise I feel you, if the people in South Mississippi get it again and here in north ms we get nothing, Again, I’ll be pissed with you.
Marginal severe weather threat for AL/GA and possibly S TN. Damaging winds and marginal tornado threat per NOAA SPC Tues - Wed !? It got my attention...lol
NoSnowATL
Member
Hey if you guys score that usually mean me ( East Atlanta to Athens) score. I hope y’all get in the action soon.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not yet. We had a thread for a system that didn't quite happen as everyone was excited after the last storm, and then there was already a thread that was way too early for Christmas. Thursday or late Wednesday at the earliest I would say.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I continue to see some potential in the post-Christmas to early January time period for a winter storm in the south with a building snow pack to the north, abundant cold air in place across the central and northern CONUS and potential for continued suppressed flow. We'll have to see if we can time out a wave to undercut the western ridge and force cyclogenesis along the Arctic frontal boundary, which should be suppressed well to the south.
European modeling suite remains very consistent in moving MJO into a weaker Phase 8 (very favorable), which if true adds more weight to the potential winter storm idea during this period.
Agreed, although I still don't think this is an MJO event. The VP200 signal clearly is interfering w/ ENSO and looks quasi-stationary w/ some retrogression over the eastern Hemisphere (indicative of Eq Rossby Wave activity), and whatever eastward moving signal there was in the far western Pacific has since dissolved and has degenerated into a fast-moving CCKW as it enters the descending portion of the Walker Cell, even faster than what's usually observed w/ MJO events in the western hemisphere (which is to be expected in a NINA). In any case, this should aid in enticing equatorward breaking Rossby Waves in our sector of the globe, thus giving us heightened chances for wintry weather if other smaller scale details cooperate as you have mentioned here...
Glad someone feels the frustration. It's been since Feb of 2014 here.
The original hit was a rarity, it could happen again, of course. Any situation with a slow moving/and or stalled out front with waves of low pressure riding along them. In fact the 1973 storm that dropped our record snow was a stalled out boundary a low rode.
Anyways, it is a La Nina year. If anything, it favors more of an icy situation during pattern shifts around these parts. Not giant snow storms. Not to say they have not happened before, but they aren't common by any means.
I like mild to moderate El Nino for the central SC areas.
I hope we do to, man. I know you had to be pretty frustrated with this last one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There is a decent high over Greenland prior to that happening, so it's not totally preposterous, but for the record, I'm not anywhere near sold on the 12z Euro after around 144 either.
Yea, you'd usually like to see some sort of high-latitude blocking feature on the Atlantic side of the arctic to sustain a blocking high like that, we really don't have one, the surface high is colocated underneath the mid-upper level ridge and moves into Greenland from the Pacific-Arctic and not the Atlantic as is more commonly observed...
I thought your area had snow around Halloween 2014 ?
The big winners in the situation were Lexington, SC. Southern Lexington, SC recorded 5 inches or so that melted away quickly as the sun poked back out. It was a freak upper level low that came way too far South for the time of the year. Things just "worked" out. Parts of Columbia, SC (in fact, most) had barely a trace.
I went to sleep the night before laughing at the HRRR & NAM having very heavy snow here. Whoops.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well not necessarily at least for the thread I created after the big storm. That clipper on the 13th actually produced some light snow/graupel mainly just north of the Triangle area in NC (as noted by Allan Huffman in Youngsville) & another batch of showers associated w/ a clipper and augmented by the Great Lakes crossed north-central NC the day prior w/ some token flakes which was about all we were anticipating from a setup like that...
olhausen
Member
I’ll take it!And finally through day 9
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Here in the Midlands where we live, I don't think a snowstorm is ever favored. An icy solution is normally what we get. But to me, I don't care what it is. I just want to have a winter storm and actually be put under a winter storm warning instead of being missed by 45 miles like we always do. Usually when we are hit, we get two storms. 2010, 2011, and 2014 were good examples of this even though 2010 featured on large snow storm with a couple close calls mixed in. 2004 could even be mentioned with the severe ice storm then almost getting slammed by the storm in late February but missed by 20 miles. We are due here.
2004 - Weak El Nino
2010 - Moderate to Strong El Nino.
2011 - Moderate Moving to Strong La Nina
2014 - Weak El Nino
2010, 2011, 2014 all great winters in GA. So I guess having mod to strong El Nino, La Nina, or a Weak El Nino doesn't really matter when it comes to cold and snow in the south.
Would seem that a weak El nino typically gives us what we need here.
olhausen
Member
Wow what a courageous call by them. Lol
Storm5
Member
Eps is slowly coming around to the idea of a little frozen precip for western areas of the region like the gefs has been showing for days
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There's more to it than that, of course. Larry is the king of all that stuff, I just posted data from a chart I have; lol.
Didn't snow a flake in Irmo where I lived at the time. Drove 5 mins into Lexington, the roads were covered in snow. Very isolated cold pocket of air aloft created a very isolated heavy snow.. crazy.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really don't know the answer to that one especially when there's a small sample size of years and events...
The majority of larger storms for the Midlands of SC have occured during El Nino type years from my over-generalization. I am not sure of all the details, but one would assume a wetter and chiller east (more chances) is why. We also have had our fair share of rain while those to our North and West raked in the snow in El Nino years.
Also, Im not even factoring in the NAO indexes or anything. That wildly changes things too. It's not just El Nino vs La Nina.. but I prefer an El Nino here for better chances imby.
Lol didnt mean to start it early. Its just its @Christmas Day anyways. Millions of U.S. citizens will rely on weather in the days leading up to and on Christmas. Tis the season. Hopefully we still have a threat by Wednesday to open the thread back up. Im dreaming of a White XMAS!
Storm5
Member
I’d dream of an icy christmas ....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Since the winter of 1886-87, (w/ the inclusion of the Dec 1886 storm), there's no statistically significant difference in snowfall between El Nino and La Nina winters in Columbia with the mean and median in NINOs only being a tad higher than La Ninas. It honestly doesnt snow often enough in the SC midlands and/or we don't have enough data points to draw any confident conclusions wrt snowfall and ENSO... If you remove the 1972-73 winter in the NINO group, the NINA group actually has more snow. Yeah, we really don't the answer to this one
Okay, I am trying to get my hands on two books by Ludlum, He wrote two volumes of books for Winter weather in the South from the 1600's to 1800's or some range like that. I'll get back to you guys if I get my hands on them.
I know looking at it, he was missing some key stuff during the Civil War. I have personally read some of Sherman's army journals from soldiers that had multiple snow and ice events here in the South, including Columbia that is not documented anywhere I have found.
WeatherWatch
Member
Is the thread going to reopen after this evening's 18z GFS run?
I'd be super interested in that.
Is there a credible Winter storm threat in the South on Christmas yet? We don't want to split the conversation off between the two threads, as valuable information will get lost in the process. From what I see, I don't see too much of a big threat, yet.