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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Man I swear, and this is me being a hater too. But if the same areas in MS, AL, and GA get hit again then i'm going to be extremely pissed off. Us in Central SC are due. It's normally every 3-4 year here.
 
Storm5 said:
At least the trend is away from the SER strengthening next week

Yep, Good trends. May not make it in time Christmas eve/day for my neck of the woods (gonna need a little more uptick in forward speed). However it'll be easier to swallow,knowing vodka cold is due by the next sunrise.
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Darklordsuperstorm said:
Meanwhile from J.P. Dice on facebook. Hmmm
"FIRST ALERT: There is a threat for some gusty winds along with a marginal (low) tornado risk Tuesday night into Wednesday morning because of some increased wind shear and a small increase in surface-based instability. Most of this will be just a bunch of heavy rain. I'm out this week, but Wes and Jill are monitoring closely for changes. Make sure you have the WBRC First Alert weather app. This does not look like a huge deal, but worth watching."
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Interesting...
 
GaWx said:
Well, it turned out colder after all late in the 12Z Euro run vs the 0Z Euro in the SE.
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The ridge extended all the way into the Canadian Arctic and Greenland this run beyond day 5-6, that's really hard to do and sustain even in a great pattern unless there's already a decent anticyclone over Greenland...
ecmwf_z500a_noram_35.png
 
Robert West said:
Man I swear, and this is me being a hater too. But if the same areas in MS, AL, and GA get hit again then i'm going to be extremely pissed off. Us in Central SC are due. It's normally every 3-4 year here.
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I promise I feel you, if the people in South Mississippi get it again and here in north ms we get nothing, Again, I’ll be pissed with you.
 
Marginal severe weather threat for AL/GA and possibly S TN. Damaging winds and marginal tornado threat per NOAA SPC Tues - Wed !? It got my attention...lol
 
Robert West said:
Man I swear, and this is me being a hater too. But if the same areas in MS, AL, and GA get hit again then i'm going to be extremely pissed off. Us in Central SC are due. It's normally every 3-4 year here.
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Hey if you guys score that usually mean me ( East Atlanta to Athens) score. I hope y’all get in the action soon.
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
I think it's time to open the thread.
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Not yet. We had a thread for a system that didn't quite happen as everyone was excited after the last storm, and then there was already a thread that was way too early for Christmas. Thursday or late Wednesday at the earliest I would say.
 
1300m said:
I continue to see some potential in the post-Christmas to early January time period for a winter storm in the south with a building snow pack to the north, abundant cold air in place across the central and northern CONUS and potential for continued suppressed flow. We'll have to see if we can time out a wave to undercut the western ridge and force cyclogenesis along the Arctic frontal boundary, which should be suppressed well to the south.

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_48.png


European modeling suite remains very consistent in moving MJO into a weaker Phase 8 (very favorable), which if true adds more weight to the potential winter storm idea during this period.

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
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Agreed, although I still don't think this is an MJO event. The VP200 signal clearly is interfering w/ ENSO and looks quasi-stationary w/ some retrogression over the eastern Hemisphere (indicative of Eq Rossby Wave activity), and whatever eastward moving signal there was in the far western Pacific has since dissolved and has degenerated into a fast-moving CCKW as it enters the descending portion of the Walker Cell, even faster than what's usually observed w/ MJO events in the western hemisphere (which is to be expected in a NINA). In any case, this should aid in enticing equatorward breaking Rossby Waves in our sector of the globe, thus giving us heightened chances for wintry weather if other smaller scale details cooperate as you have mentioned here...
vp200.GFS.anom.KELVIN.5S-5N.png
 
Robert West said:
Man I swear, and this is me being a hater too. But if the same areas in MS, AL, and GA get hit again then i'm going to be extremely pissed off. Us in Central SC are due. It's normally every 3-4 year here.
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The original hit was a rarity, it could happen again, of course. Any situation with a slow moving/and or stalled out front with waves of low pressure riding along them. In fact the 1973 storm that dropped our record snow was a stalled out boundary a low rode.

Anyways, it is a La Nina year. If anything, it favors more of an icy situation during pattern shifts around these parts. Not giant snow storms. Not to say they have not happened before, but they aren't common by any means.

I like mild to moderate El Nino for the central SC areas.
 
1300m said:
There is a decent high over Greenland prior to that happening, so it's not totally preposterous, but for the record, I'm not anywhere near sold on the 12z Euro after around 144 either.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png
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Yea, you'd usually like to see some sort of high-latitude blocking feature on the Atlantic side of the arctic to sustain a blocking high like that, we really don't have one, the surface high is colocated underneath the mid-upper level ridge and moves into Greenland from the Pacific-Arctic and not the Atlantic as is more commonly observed...
 
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