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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I don't think there's going to be a February this year, even if we get what we're hoping for (a less intense 10/11). In Nina winters, when the door slams, it really slams on cold weather.

It looks like there will be a warm up soon, but I don't think it's the door slamming. We likely have about 3 more weeks after this period, starting around Christmas...and that might be it afterward.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't think there's going to be a February this year, even if we get what we're hoping for (a less intense 10/11). In Nina winters, when the door slams, it really slams on cold weather.

It looks like there will be a warm up soon, but I don't think it's the door slamming. We likely have about 3 more weeks after this period, starting around Christmas...and that might be it afterward.
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You may be right, but in Nina winters you still can score with the perfect setup. Who knows February could fool us all with and be cold, Lol!!
 
JHS said:
Deadly serious. I'm ready for spring. These winter storms never work out where I am.
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Winter weather dont work out for alot ppl on here. Your case, rain didnt work out for you last year and now winter weather. You need to move.
 
Keep a wandering eye on the 16th, could be the Carolinas redeemer storm
 
Rain Cold said:
There is nothing really discouraging on any of the LR operational charts. Very cold air looks to build up over Canada with general troughing in the US. We should be variable, but to my eye, it looks like we will be generally at or below average with a couple of short warm-ups mixed in.

Unfortunately, it's not a SE winter storm pattern, and we don't have any hints of Greenland blocking. That said, it looks like there are a few systems that can lay down some snowcover to the north, which can hopefully help us down the road.
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Rain Cold said:
There is nothing really discouraging on any of the LR operational charts. Very cold air looks to build up over Canada with general troughing in the US. We should be variable, but to my eye, it looks like we will be generally at or below average with a couple of short warm-ups mixed in.

Unfortunately, it's not a SE winter storm pattern, and we don't have any hints of Greenland blocking. That said, it looks like there are a few systems that can lay down some snowcover to the north, which can hopefully help us down the road.
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Waiting for a SE winter storm pattern will leave you with a broken heart. We just have to take our chances when we get them . I'm still on the fense about the whole snow cover to the North argument. Obviously snow cover to the north helps keep cold shots from moderating too much but at the same time there are plenty of examples of us scoring without it like yesterday . As for the NAO, I never hold out hope that we will ever have a sustained blocking period. Give me a good Pacific pattern with a nice western ridge and I'll roll the dice

I'm with you I dont see anything disastrous in the LR.
 
MichaelJ said:
Oh, so you'd rather see people get their homes and lives destroyed by severe weather huh? SMDH
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going to step in here defend... dont think he said anything wishful to that nature... im a severe westher lover and storm chaser ... and i dont ever wish to see that...but thats part of the game man... i already getting my preparations for severe i need , for this should be a active period coming shortly... could n should start late january going into spring...
 
At least we have and will continue to have cold air in Canada unlike last year.


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tennessee storm said:
going to step in here defend... dont think he said anything wishful to that nature... im a severe westher lover and storm chaser ... and i dont ever wish to see that...but thats part of the game man... i already getting my preparations for severe i need , for this should be a active period coming shortly... could n should start late january going into spring...
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No offense but I hope you don't get much of an opportunity to chase a lot of severe weather, and that it stays cold until April. But that's just me. Personally I think we do have a January thaw but will still have some cold periods, and then Feb. turns mild but cold comes back in March whether we want it to or not
 
MichaelJ said:
No offense but I hope you don't get much of an opportunity to chase a lot of severe weather, and that it stays cold until April. But that's just me. Personally I think we do have a January thaw but will still have some cold periods, and then Feb. turns mild but cold comes back in March whether we want it to or not
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not in a la nina state... the se ridge should become dominant as we roll through january
 
Lol the same GFS that yesterday was showing a sauna for Christmas today throws us a fantasy bone
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
 
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that this is a front-loaded winter. Maybe it is, but I wouldn't be surprised if some (if not many) of us cash in into February, as well. There have been a number of La Nina winters that delivered some goods in February.
 
GEFS did not look too bad in my opinion either, couple of warm days week before Christmas but then back to normal or BN and set to reload at end of run... generally west coast ridge, east coast trough maybe only negative no Greenland block but overall I'll take it
 
metwannabe said:
GEFS did not look too bad in my opinion either, couple of warm days week before Christmas but then back to normal or BN and set to reload at end of run... generally west coast ridge, east coast trough maybe only negative no Greenland block but overall I'll take it
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If the PNA can get into decent + territory and then hang out like a cowboy at a bar through the end of the month, things could get interesting, especially if the MJO gets to 8 ... :confused:
 
Was certainly hopeful we could pull something out of the SW US here this upcoming week but looks like that won't happen fast enough to keep up with the arctic air. In any case this last storm was amazing to track and huge bust in the other direction for once and gives me hope that others esp up here in the Carolinas that got screwed over can score later...
 
tennessee storm said:
not in a la nina state... the se ridge should become dominant as we roll through january
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Just because we are in a NINA year doesn’t mean we atomically torch and have severe weather once February starts. Obviously it is more likely to happen based on climo but it’s not set in stone as weather never is. I’ve had plenty of snows in bad/warmer winters. I’ve also probably had less snow during super cold winters then moderate ones excluding the 2010/2011 winter.
 
What about CAD style ice storms ? Do they happen in La Niña winters ?
 
metwannabe said:
Again way out there but D15 EPS looks decent and the entire run looked ok to me, slight and brief warmup but overall bn temps
eps_z500a_b_noram_360.png
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As someone stated earlier, when the cold " relaxes" it's still hovering in the North and Canada, so it does not vacate to the other side of the world. With that said, could produce some good CAD storms, so we can stop SD's whining! :)
 
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome aboard!!! :D Thanks for the thoughts; very well reasoned ... ;)
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome to Southernwx! Now where did I put that bat signal?

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FFC sounds awfully uncertain about this weeks overall forecast. Keep mentioning impulses roating down but they appear dry. Gave a medium-high confidence lol. How crazy would it be if one of these impulses provides some additional snow showers at some point this week. lol.
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Very true... Spann posted what to me is and excellent write up shortly ago...https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=149921
 
Around winter solstice is the best time to get a storm in the south because of the low sun angle.


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Monday will be dry with temps rebounding nicely into 40s for
mountain counties and 50s elsewhere. A vigorous shortwave trough
initially located across northern Minnesota will quickly dive
southeast into the OH Valley by days end. Sfc reflection will remain
across the Great Lakes however it will push a cold front towards the
area. The front should clear the area Monday night into Tuesday with
minimal moisture along its boundary. Cooler air will advect in
behind this feature with some post frontal cu expected in its wake
as evidenced by moisture in the 925-850mb layer. Would not be
surprised to see these clouds spit out some sprinkles or
flurries...mainly across the far north where orographic enhancement
may take place. Right now 850mb temps at least -4 to -5C will
support in-cloud snow but sfc temps should warm above freezing by
afternoon. The threat for flurries would be mainly in the morning
and due to limited moisture have kept things very slight chance
across the far NE for now.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry at this point despite repeated
passages of mid level impulses within the broad trough. Another
front looks to pass through on Friday. Have kept in slight chance
of rain/flurries for Thursday night/early Friday across the
mountains.
FFC’s take.
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
Click to expand...
welcome aboard!
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
Click to expand...

Welcome to the board. Great post!
 
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