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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

metwannabe said:
So much for happy hour... Merry Torchmas
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I like it.
 
I gotta admit. I do enjoy a nice thaw in the winter. Im not sure I would enjoy living in a place that had wall to wall cold for months. Then again, I dont enjoy living in a place with wall to wall heat for months like you have in the south. I guess my point is no matter where I live i will find something about the weather that I dont like.
 
I wish someone would post each 0z and 12z model output for the last week. I cant remember a time where we had so little consistency run to run with both major models. Makes me wonder what is going on. And also makes me think they might just be dead wrong. Am I alone in this? I could be wrong, I haven't paid as much attention as I used to.
 
NoSnowATL said:
1000% Agree. If it’s not going to snow or ice up then I will take 60s all winter so I can play a few round of golf.
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Instead of just 70s on Christmas, might as well have 60s and 70s all winter, at least then we won't have to worry about a near miss.
 
I don't mind a warm Christmas as long as we get a good storm some time this winter. We know it can be 70 here one day and then have 18 inches of snow a week later. I still think with the way the models are so inconsistent and different from each other that there is a lot of energy flying around making it hard for the models to get a good handle on things, and as long as we have the energy around that could possibly mean the chance for a big storm to evolve.
 
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La Nina years (especially weak to moderate ones) are notoriously variable with cold and warm periods, often with the warm ones more common. Look at this winter like a baseball game, we got off to a 2-0 lead in early December but the other guys scored 3 in the 6th to pull ahead and went on to win 6-3 by scoring in the seventh, eight and ninth. We did score some runs but got beat by their rally (the positive AO) :rolleyes:
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't mind a warm Christmas as long as we get a good storm some time this winter. We know it can be 70 here one day and then have 18 inches of snow a week later. I still think with the way the models are so inconsistent and different from each other that there is a lot of energy flying around making it hard for the models to get a good handle on things, and as long as we have the energy around that could possibly mean the chance for a big storm to evolve.
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I want it to be like the movie Day After Tomorrow!!:D
 
The EPO is great for seeding the source region with cold air. That’s all well and good, but you still have to have a mechanism to deliver that cold air into the southeast. In some ways it’s like having a three point assassin on your team. He’s always great to have, but if he never gets the ball, you will probably lose. Just relying on the EPO is not enough. There is a lot more going on.
 
Rain Cold said:
The EPO is great for seeding the source region with cold air. That’s all well and good, but you still have to have a mechanism to deliver that cold air into the southeast. In some ways it’s like having a three point assassin on your team. He’s always great to have, but if he never gets the ball, you will probably lose. Just relying on the EPO is not enough. There is a lot more going on.
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That's why they always give me the ball.
 
Brick Tamland said:
When it comes to shooting the three ball.
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We used to play ball so much back in the day. I could light it up from downtown. Now, I sprint down the court and back, and I’m grabbing my shorts.
 
Rain Cold said:
The EPO is great for seeding the source region with cold air. That’s all well and good, but you still have to have a mechanism to deliver that cold air into the southeast. In some ways it’s like having a three point assassin on your team. He’s always great to have, but if he never gets the ball, you will probably lose. Just relying on the EPO is not enough. There is a lot more going on.
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Great analogy, RC. I'd say that the MJO weak phase 8 could very well provide a major assist since it tends to favor SE cold in winter (actually about as cold as any MJO position) via an E US trough. Keep in mind that the inferior MJO model, the GEFS doesn't have a favorable for SE cold phase like the EPS has had.

Of course, it would be great if we had a solid +PNA but even the great Dec 1983 had a -PNA. A -NAO would be quite helpful. Regardless, exciting times ahead as I anticipate any one model run could represent a sudden turnaround for the better at any point due to the very strong -EPO seed.
 
GaWx said:
Great analogy, RC. I'd say that the MJO weak phase 8 could very well provide a major assist since it tends to favor SE cold in winter (actually about as cold as any MJO position) via an E US trough. Keep in mind that the inferior MJO model, the GEFS doesn't have a favorable for SE cold phase like the EPS has had.

Of course, it would be great if we had a solid +PNA but even the great Dec 1983 had a -PNA. A -NAO would be quite helpful. Regardless, exciting times ahead as I anticipate any one model run could represent a sudden turnaround for the better at any point due to the very strong -EPO seed.
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Yeah man, agreed. Regarding the MJO, though, Webber posted something the other day about this not being a real MJO pulse. That may have implications as to the effectiveness of the phase 8 regime being progged.
 
It's certainly an interesting dichotomy between NINAs and NINOs regarding the source region for our air masses, storm track, & transport mechanisms. Generally speaking while NINOs are typically colder here the source region is often within North America and the airmasses we do get are characteristically continental polar so although it's cold, the airmasses (when the pattern is conducive) are often marginal. Whereas, La Ninas feature an Aleutian ridge that seeds North America with Siberian air but it often has trouble reaching the SE US, hence we are warmer than normal however if the pattern is favorable (as was the case in January 1985 and February 1899) the airmasses are insane.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
If you loop the last 4 runs you can see the energy over the sw trending weaker and east every run
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The energy is still there, it just doesn't get cut off like on the past runs. It doesn't need to get cut off and just spin, that's no good. The SW energy needs to keep moving to help the flow move.
 
The final result may or may not be great, but this is the best GFS run by a good margin at least of the last 4 as regards shorter lasting SW energy and weaker SER. Remember at this early stage that the most important thing is to start a favorable trend as opposed to actually seeing a winter storm...in my opinion. As it is, I'll be surprised if this run doesn't come in the coldest of the last 4 in the SE.
 
Yeah, I think there maybe a 2nd system, which would bring the goods. Have some energy over the SW, let's see if the energy becomes positive tilt.
 
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