• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December Dud 👀

weather bubba said:
https://www.wral.com/news/local/climate-change-warming-raleigh-winters-dec-2024/

I know WRAL has an agenda with just about every news item they give the public these days but there is no denying that weather patterns have changed during the last fifty years and winter weather is harder to come by. The warmer average temperatures are not a surprise though considering that the temperature sensors at KRDU run three to five degrees in many cases above those of surrounding weather stations.
Click to expand...
Agreed. As long as they are not using the very real 'heat island' effect as a criteria for the other reason.

I know--wrong thread
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I can't put much stock in that..... I don't believe I have ever seen wall-to-wall heat in winter from the North Pole all the way to South America. Correct me if I am wrong. Just doesn't seem possible. Someone please keep this pic for verification.
Click to expand...
Your challenging the heat miser and he never loses
 
I still really like the idea of there being 1-2 legit severe weather outbreaks coming down the road in the southern tier the us between about Christmas and New Year’s.

What might end up being one of the only ways to break the CAD in the Carolinas and VA is to get a giant low pressure system to the west and a rapidly advancing warm sector out ahead of it.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I can't put much stock in that..... I don't believe I have ever seen wall-to-wall heat in winter from the North Pole all the way to South America. Correct me if I am wrong. Just doesn't seem possible. Someone please keep this pic for verification.
Click to expand...
It's not "heat" it's above-normal 2m temperature anomalies. It's still plenty cold, but it's warmer-than-normal for the date. Every op and every ensemble are in lock-step agreement, so as @Stevo24 said you can pretty much take it to the bank when it comes to a warm spell like this considering the background setup and raging, poleward-shifted Pacific jet as @Webberweather53 has pointed out.
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t2m_c-5430400.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-5430400.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I still really like the idea of there being 1-2 legit severe weather outbreaks coming down the road in the southern tier the us between about Christmas and New Year’s.

What might end up being one of the only ways to break the CAD in the Carolinas and VA is to get a giant low pressure system to the west and a rapidly advancing warm sector out ahead of it.
Click to expand...
As you've pointed out also, this is an insanely long-duration CAD episode. ECMWF doesn't really ever lose confluence over the northeast until after New Years and we may break down the CAD wedge with the pattern changing system. That would be wild. Maybe we don't totally lose soil temps if this is the case haha.

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_fh48-360.gif
 
1300m said:
As you've pointed out also, this is an insanely long-duration CAD episode. ECMWF doesn't really ever lose confluence over the northeast until after New Years and we may break down the CAD wedge with the pattern changing system. That would be wild. Maybe we don't totally lose soil temps if this is the case haha.
Click to expand...

You ain’t half bad at finding the silver lining
 
1300m said:
As you've pointed out also, this is an insanely long-duration CAD episode. ECMWF doesn't really ever lose confluence over the northeast until after New Years and we may break down the CAD wedge with the pattern changing system. That would be wild. Maybe we don't totally lose soil temps if this is the case haha.

View attachment 156254
Click to expand...

Seeing pattern like this 50+ years ago would have probably produced at least one ice storm down here.

Not saying this one absolutely can’t (& maybe it will), but the long term background climatic changes (warmer initial air masses over the Arctic, lower sea ice, etc.) are getting the spotlight briefly shown on them here
 
Webberweather53 said:
Seeing pattern like this 50+ years ago would have probably produced at least one ice storm down here.

Not saying this one absolutely can’t (& maybe it will), but the long term background climatic changes (warmer initial air masses over the Arctic, lower sea ice, etc.) are getting the spotlight briefly shown on them here
Click to expand...
No substantial snow cover over New England and the upper Mid-Atlantic would also make a difference here as well. I agree, some sneaky overrunning event could still come out of nowhere so-to-speak, but it'll be tougher given the antecedent conditions.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've always felt pretty good about this period as being the time when the +TNH/-EPO would really come up. The fact it showed up so early this winter kind of surprised me a bit, especially when it had to overcome an apparently unfavorable MJO to do it, says a lot about where the base state is and how the TNH is more receptive to low frequency forcing greater than one season.

There's a gigantic subseasonal signal here for a +TNH/-EPO near the end of Dec into early January that's going to be heavily reinforced &/or arguably led by low frequency variability & internal storm track variability.


View attachment 154855


View attachment 154853
Click to expand...

I don't want to hear any more nonsense about how there's no way we can forecast more than a month in advance
 
SimeonNC said:
I was going to ask if you thought sleet was possible around the I-77 area due to the convective showers and the cold 850 temps
Click to expand...
I think technically speaking it’ll be hail/graupel if it does occur, but yeah I wouldn’t be surprised to see some reports. Most every TV Met / NWS office has at least offhand mentioned it
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top