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Pattern December Dud 👀

Myfrotho704_ said:
Eh this look to me screams MA/NE, lack of cold air initially especially, and the way the TPV interacts late. Could always change View attachment 155742View attachment 155743View attachment 155744
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Probably. But that’s the normal misses of Winter. Part of turning this thing around is missing close again before we hit. Over the last couple Winters, we’ve been missing by several states. Hell, even down here in Columbia.. as irritated as I might be to watch the upstate into the Piedmont get hit & us sit in a cold rain, at least it would feel like the good ole days again.
 
I just can't believe with all the snow in Colorado right now that eventually the pattern won't flip in a big way. I mean it's December 10th for one thing and some of the things here aren't fully open because most years they don't have this much snow yet...

It makes me wonder for sure...
 
Brent said:
I just can't believe with all the snow in Colorado right now that eventually the pattern won't flip in a big way. I mean it's December 10th for one thing and some of the things here aren't fully open because most years they don't have this much snow yet...

It makes me wonder for sure...
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I think it's alot of conflicting signals more than normal and throwing the models off
 
hky1894 said:
Just feel like we’re on the verge of massive potential. It could be all for nothing but this year feels different. Seeing euro and gfs throwing out some fantasy runs is interesting. Hopefully ensembles start lighting up soon


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Seems like we've had more fantasy runs already this year compared to the amount of last year fantasy runs.
 
Bham 99 said:
Seems like we've had more fantasy runs already this year compared to the amount of last year fantasy runs.
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As silly as it sounds, I think that's kind of a key component of winter psychology and how much fun we end up having. The last few years, it seems that, largely, the pattern has been so unfavorable, there has been a noticeable lack of fantasy storms. Perhaps also, the models have gotten better in terms of reducing their cold biases out in time. Idk.

But what I do know that if we can at least see fantasy storms periodically throughout the winter, that is good for psychology and board vibes in general. I assume that also means the pattern isn't complete trash, which would at least be a step forward.
 
Wild ridge / trough amplification on the latest AI Euro. 5 day average

qh84SMA.png

ccvY22a.png
 
jeremyt said:
I still don’t get all the worry with no December snows in the SE, NC in particular. Yes there have been great December snows but don’t we get our best in late Jan- Feb? I get any is welcomed by most and the past few years have sucked but what am I missing?
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You’re missing nothing. Spot on. And Dec is well below average in NC. Good start to meteorological winter!
 
I love the looks of the AI Euro sure but I need to see something that shows how well it verifies. Don’t shoot me but feels like we are mentioning it a tad too much with somewhat blind faith.
 
jeremyt said:
I still don’t get all the worry with no December snows in the SE, NC in particular. Yes there have been great December snows but don’t we get our best in late Jan- Feb? I get any is welcomed by most and the past few years have sucked but what am I missing?
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21-22 Tulsa had no snow til February and we had 8 inches in one storm...

You just never know

On this day in 2021 btw there was an ef4 tornado in Kentucky... One of the deadliest tornadoes recently
 
LukeBarrette said:
I love the looks of the AI Euro sure but I need to see something that shows how well it verifies. Don’t shoot me but feels like we are mentioning it a tad too much with somewhat blind faith.
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It's just one operational model in a sea of op and ensemble output, but see the post here (ignore text below, that's not the post content)...

Pattern - December Dud 👀

But we would have other things to worry about ( like a higher sun angle). So basically you just can’t win anytime of the year is what you guys are saying lol
southernwx.com
 
jeremyt said:
I still don’t get all the worry with no December snows in the SE, NC in particular. Yes there have been great December snows but don’t we get our best in late Jan- Feb? I get any is welcomed by most and the past few years have sucked but what am I missing?
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You asked, so I'm going to tell you. You are missing the fact that early December was a golden opportunity missed. You are missing the fact that the calendar does not matter, it is the meteorological patterns that do, and the pattern we had in early December was an opportunity missed. We don't get patterns like that In December, January, February or March some years. I don't give a rip what meteorological winter month it is, I'm looking at the setups and when we miss an opportunity, yes it sucks. And yes, I still believe early December could be the best opportunity we have all winter - it is absolutely a viable possibility. There is no guarantee that because it is early, mid or late January that the pattern will become favorable - how has that worked out the past few years?
 
1300m said:
You asked, so I'm going to tell you. You are missing the fact that early December was a golden opportunity missed. You are missing the fact that the calendar does not matter, it is the meteorological patterns that do, and the pattern we had in early December was an opportunity missed. We don't get patterns like that In December, January, February or March some years. I don't give a rip what meteorological winter month it is, I'm looking at the setups and when we miss an opportunity, yes it sucks. And yes, I still believe early December could be the best opportunity we have all winter - it is absolutely a viable possibility. There is no guarantee that because it is early, mid or late January that the pattern will become favorable - how has that worked out the past few years?
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You’re way more versed than me, I’m still learning to read models and dissect what’s shown and things do change. I’m the first to admit that, but show me historical data that says otherwise! Not trying to get into an argument, I’m just stating what I have seen over my past 40 some odd years of life!
 
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