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Pattern December Dud 👀

Both the extended GEFS and European Weeklies show RMM MJO entering phase 7 as we enter the new year.

Something is probably going to happen in early to mid January.

Also, I am working on the long-term analysis of ERA-5 OMI MJO (1940 - near present) and NC winter storms and the results are interesting thus far, having gone through all the data through the mid 1980s. Hopefully, I can finish it soon and show some of the results.

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Webberweather53 said:
Both the extended GEFS and European Weeklies show RMM MJO entering phase 7 as we enter the new year.

Something is probably going to happen in early to mid January.

Also, I am working on the long-term analysis of ERA-5 OMI MJO (1940 - near present) and NC winter storms and the results are interesting thus far, having gone through all the data through the mid 1980s. Hopefully, I can finish it soon and show some of the results.

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Quite a few members are showing high amplitude in phases 6-7. Any significance there?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Quite a few members are showing high amplitude in phases 6-7. Any significance there?
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The higher the amplitude, the more time it is likely to spend in phase 7. The long lived January phase 7 events (like most recently 2022) tend to give us multiple opportunities for snow/ice
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Man the EC AIFS at H5 is a masterclass pattern. Looks like a copy and paste from jan 2014 View attachment 155663
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It looks like a good pattern for loading cold, but it looks kind of dry, verbatim. If we could get a little -NAO action to help us put, that would be nice. I like the -EPO and the western ridge, though it may be a tad too far east. But whatever...it sure beats the alternative usual pattern by a mile.
 
Rain Cold said:
It looks like a good pattern for loading cold, but it looks kind of dry, verbatim. If we could get a little -NAO action to help us put, that would be nice. I like the -EPO and the western ridge, though it may be a tad too far east. But whatever...it sure beats the alternative usual pattern by a mile.
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Agree. It did have ENC snow with that one pacific wave that passed under the big TPV again this run.2EEBABF3-8998-4C6C-9769-9D6E746F58C0.png363EF458-17F2-4AD7-8FFC-144E81B3D3A6.png6F2D7650-48B8-4B00-97A9-B16D24E73268.png
But this progression is a beauty. Slowly start getting the western ridging settled, then it sticks in place and the whole pacific pattern is arranging to a more equator-ward extended pac jet, with slow retrogression and more tendency towards ridging into Alaska, which starts dropping some really cold air and the trop TPV. We have been wanting a pacific like this for years DDAD179D-36EE-4354-B9F1-0C31C7110F48.gif
 
I looked at all the mjo charts from the various models and ensembles, and most have it in either low amp phase 6 or into or towards the cod. Wanted to add that I go to dacular weather mjo to look at them in the same screen
 
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jeremyt said:
Doesn’t count if it’s not at home!
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Oh yeah it's definitely not the same that's for sure

Honestly there were moments in the last week I wasn't even sure it would snow at all 🤣 but really the only reason I even did this trip was because last winter drove me crazy
 
Brent said:
Oh yeah it's definitely not the same that's for sure

Honestly there were moments in the last week I wasn't even sure it would snow at all 🤣 but really the only reason I even did this trip was because last winter drove me crazy
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I honestly think you had it worse than even those of us east of the Apps. We never even sniffed a legitimate chance last winter. You looked like you just missed really good storms in every direction
 
Chazwin said:
I honestly think you had it worse than even those of us east of the Apps. We never even sniffed a legitimate chance last winter. You looked like you just missed really good storms in every direction
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That's why it bothered me so much and for the 2nd year in a row we had a donut hole. Like I never want to hear that phrase ever again

The January storm wasn't a complete fail but it did go from a big storm over 6 inches to barely an inch... And then of course it blew up for Nashville which has worse climo than us

I mean technically I came out here last year but I stayed in Denver and yeah it was not very good all the fun is out here
 
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