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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

19 degrees!

Remember it was 80+ for 5 days

Just 11 days ago, the EPS mean had your low this morning of ~43! It had Mack at 28, Nashville at 42, Birmingham at 47, ATL at 45, SAV at 48, CAE/AUG at 43, GSP/Charlotte/FAY at 40, and RDU at 39.

How far off were these on the 12/19 12Z EPS?

TUL +22 (based on official low of 21)
Mack +16
Nashville +17
Birmingham +23
ATL +19
SAV +13
AUG +12
CAE +15
GSP +12
Charlotte +13
FAY +10
RDU +11

IMG_6394.png
 
One more post about the above. Here’s s better visual comparison between the near actuals per the 6Z EPS 6 hour map on top and the EPS forecast from 11 days ago (bottom map):

Actuals:
View attachment 180532

EPS forecast from 11 days ago:
View attachment 180533
What did GFS/AI etc look like for today 11 days ago? Was anyone right?

If everyone was too warm… here’s hoping they’re right about the precip in 10 days and way off with temps again
 
What did GFS/AI etc look like for today 11 days ago? Was anyone right?

If everyone was too warm… here’s hoping they’re right about the precip in 10 days and way off with temps again

GEFS was also way too warm, but I didn’t save the map. It’s safe to say that model consensus was way too warm.
 
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