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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Merry Torchmas, fellow wx geeks, weenies, and nerds:
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If you’re still reading ;), that map isn’t for today. Rather, it’s the forecast map issued just before for the very similar Torchmas of 2021, which was then also at or near the warmest Christmas on record and was from one of the favored winter analogs that folks have been following, 2021-2.

That Dec also featured a strong -PNA that still wasn’t forecasted to turn to a +PNA in Jan even as late as the Boxing Day PNA forecast, which went through Jan 9th:
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The PNA actually went positive on day 14 of this 12/26/21 forecast, 1/9/22, and stayed that way through 2/15/22!

Here’s the eerily very similar Dec of 2025 PNA and forecast:
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In addition to a chilly Jan, GSO and much of NC had a snowy Jan of 2022.
 
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It looks like daily record highs at CAE, Charlotte, and GSO. Charlotte’s looks like the latest on record 79+ in Dec by 5 days! Charlotte hasn’t had another 79 on record til Jan 28th! Needless to say, these along with the low 70s at RDU were underdone for today by the models.

*Corrected for typo. Charlotte
 
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AWOS station at the airport across town hit 77. CWOP on my side of town hit 78 just now

It’s socked in on beech mountain but it’s 51 degrees
 
Past 3 days for me: 63,72,72…had a little more cloud cover today so didn’t get quite as high as GSO or CLT


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
78 was the high at SAV today. They’ve had 78, 78, and 75 the last 3 days. Torchy but no records, which are 81, 83, and 82. Most of their record highs in winter are in the low 80s as 70s aren’t at all uncommon. We still have 4 more days of mid to upper 70s to go before the bottom falls out. So, that would make 75ish+ 7 days in a row.

Good job by the models with the warmth for a change! This is the first period they’ve done well since the week prior to Thanksgiving. They saw this coming pretty far out.
 
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