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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 šŸŽ„ ā„ļø

1.08" of a nice soaking rain!

Here's how I take the upcoming pattern. First, it's NEVER cold/frigid for the entire winter. We live in the SE and there are ALWAYS periods of warmth, thaws. When I see Alaska going into the deep freeze, even for them, I start to wonder when the dam is going to burst and send it to the US. We shall see, but I'm not concerned in the least with a warm spell, even though it's over Christmas.
 
Stick a fork in it
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NCSNOW said:
Modelologist / flavor of the day.
Meteorology knows it's anybody's guess, once you start getting out past 5-10 days with the exception of discerning Background state ( La nina/ el nino etc ).
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Yep these people are gonna look like they always do, clueless when it flips and they are all screaming about the cold coming. Itā€™s all a guess in the end. More likely than not it will flip. And if it donā€™t then I guess we have more data to add to the books for future guessing.
 
Brent said:
Ugh I tried to warn people when they cheered for early cold that we waste it a lot of years

That's a big difference from 2021 I see it was very warm... First freeze was 2 weeks later than this year. It's a lot drier this year too
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Yes, there was a huge difference in the first half of Dec 2021 vs 2025. However, I thoroughly enjoyed the first half of this month and loved the cold. I appreciate cold whenever we can get it. I and most here hated the warmth of the first half of Dec of 2021. And Iā€™m enjoying the next couple of cool days, too.
 
BIG FROSTY said:



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Geez, these guys are basically model watchers like us. They flip and flop like a fish based on the models. More power to them I guess.

Long range looks warm, but what are you going to do? I'm going to start going outside more I guess. Hopefully 2nd week of January things mix up and the pig ridge goes poleward. And if it does, and the +PNA goes positive, @GaWx will be a legend.
 
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Usually with abnormal warmth in the winter, it comes with storms and copious amounts of rain. However, this warmth is riding in on west and west north-west winds aloft which will keep us dry, dry, dry. We need to start getting precipitation during these winter months. My next chance of meaningful rain is maybe on 12/31. Not good for GA. This is perhaps the worst possible placement of a western trough we could imagine.
 
SnowNiner said:
Geez, these guys are basically model watchers like us. They flip and flop like a fish based on the models. More power to them I guess.

Long range looks warm, but what are you going to do? I'm going to start going outside more I guess. Hopefully 2nd week of January things mix up and the pig ridge goes poleward. And if it does, and the +PNA goes positive, @GaWx will be a legend.
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What's so bad is they charge you to flip flop.
 
Only received 0.36" worth of rain. Not enough but somehow we've picked up almost 4" this month. It's a great day to have the windows open before it gets cold again tonight.
 
SnowNiner said:
Geez, these guys are basically model watchers like us. They flip and flop like a fish based on the models. More power to them I guess.

Long range looks warm, but what are you going to do? I'm going to start going outside more I guess. Hopefully 2nd week of January things mix up and the pig ridge goes poleward. And if it does, and the +PNA goes positive, @GaWx will be a legend.
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Going to be great golfing weather, might as well make the best of itā€¦ ļø


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One of the biggest things for me in patterns like the (which are all too frequent nowadays) is the disappointment of not being really able to talk productively about what 90% of us love to talk about. I mean we get the CFS stuff occasionally or the 384 GFS once in a while, but that is just silly.

Even if we track something and it doesn't pan out, it still beats sitting around looking at the same orange maps over and over.
 
.53ā€ last night. This year is weird. Iā€™ll end up around 73ā€ but itā€™s been so dry this fall the ponds are down a foot or two. The creeks are fine though.
 
EmersonGA said:
.53ā€ last night. This year is weird. Iā€™ll end up around 73ā€ but itā€™s been so dry this fall the ponds are down a foot or two. The creeks are fine though.
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Lake Hartwell is headed for 7 feet below full pool. Havenā€™t seen that in a long time.
 
Rain Cold said:
One of the biggest things for me in patterns like the (which are all too frequent nowadays) is the disappointment of not being really able to talk productively about what 90% of us love to talk about. I mean we get the CFS stuff occasionally or the 384 GFS once in a while, but that is just silly.

Even if we track something and it doesn't pan out, it still beats sitting around looking at the same orange maps over and over.
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12z CFS for January 8th:
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BIG FROSTY said:
Yā€™all just hang on a little longer! Itā€™s coming sooner or later. #CFS V2




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That CFS idea isnā€™t far fetched though, itā€™s just a poleward Aleutian ridge and a west based -NAO, which could legitimately happen past week 1 of Jan
 
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