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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Snow Accumulation in Youngsville!!
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MRKEVIN7575 said:
Any thoughts on what JB is saying?
View attachment 178765
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It's what Grit and others have said, although the MJO plots show low amp phase 8/COD 8, there's been convection and activity, Kelvin Waves, etc along the equator that cancelled or overruled the MJO plots. That's why the mjo is so weak (with those past loops shown). This has made the atmosphere act like the bad phases of the mjo and thus the crap look the next few weeks. The hope is that in a couple weeks the mjo signal picks back up, convection on the equator goes back to phase 8 and we continue on with a good pattern. Models I believe did show this from what I've read, grit showed it too. I don't think dam bursting cold river of ice day after tomorrow conditions are likely, but hopefully we can get forcing in the pacific that favors cold in the SE again to start January.

Basically the mjo got hijacked by convection anomalies at the equator. We need the mjo wave to get back control of air force one and get off our plane.
 
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packfan98 said:
Got some flakes flying in Greensboro. How many times has this happened already? Before Christmas too. It just wants to snow this year...

Still waiting on a big one though.
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Thinking same thing:

Fun Facts:
Today is the 16th straight day in a row Gboro has been Below Normal. The streak will make it past 20, before it gets broken second half of next week.
Slopes have 60 + inch base and it's only Dec 12th. Believe Beech mtn is already past 20 inches natural snow for the season. Lot of central VA, eastern VA and NE NC have already reached & passed their yearly snowfall totals.

If the blocking verifies , like the CFS has on latest run early Jan, we should catch another 7-10 day window of Coldest air of the season and hopefully a big one. I still think NE NC/ tidewater scores again Sunday night/Monday. Interested to see what LR on models look like a week from today. If we are going to get some favorable blocking over Greenland, then we should be seeing it on some ensembles/ perhaps Ops by then. Not just the CFS. Thats our best bet to funnel cold down. The trough off Alaska is like anchored down, cant get the WC ridging set up like we need
 
NCSNOW said:
Thinking same thing:

Fun Facts:
Today is the 16th straight day in a row Gboro has been Below Normal. The streak will make it past 20, before it gets broken second half of next week.
Slopes have 60 + inch base and it's only Dec 12th. Believe Beech mtn is already past 20 inches natural snow for the season. Lot of central VA, eastern VA and NE NC have already reached & passed their yearly snowfall totals.

If the blocking verifies , like the CFS has on latest run early Jan, we should catch another 7-10 day window of Coldest air of the season and hopefully a big one. I still think NE NC/ tidewater scores again Sunday night/Monday. Interested to see what LR on models look like a week from today. If we are going to get some favorable blocking over Greenland, then we should be seeing it on some ensembles/ perhaps Ops by then. Not just the CFS. Thats our best bet to funnel cold down. The trough off Alaska is like anchored down, cant get the WC ridging set up like we need
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Negative pna is trumping everything
 
If anything has fallen here it has evaporated because there is no trace of anything on my wife's car. I guess if one is lucky and gets under one of those heavier bands for a bit it may amount to something measurable. Right now, that good bad may miss me just to the south. 1765547665600.png
It does look like it is starting to snow on the mountains west of Salem so it may be here soon?
 
SnowNiner said:
It's what Grit and others have said, although the MJO plots show low amp phase 8/COD 8, there's been convection and activity, Kelvin Waves, etc along the equator that cancelled or overruled the MJO plots. That's why the mjo is so weak (with those past loops shown). This has made the atmosphere act like the bad phases of the mjo and thus the crap look the next few weeks. The hope is that in a couple weeks the mjo signal picks back up, convection on the equator goes back to phase 8 and we continue on with a good pattern. Models I believe did show this from what I've read, grit showed it too. I don't think dam bursting cold river of ice day after tomorrow conditions are likely, but hopefully we can get forcing in the pacific that favors cold in the SE again to start January.

Basically the mjo got hijacked by convection anomalies at the equator. We need the mjo wave to get back control of air force one and get off our plane.
Click to expand...

Once we get to Dec 17th, the SE will have had virtually every day colder than normal for 3 weeks. In addition, much of NC will have had 3 snows even though mainly minor. In the past few decades, only 2010 will have been clearly colder for that same period and 2002/2000 close, but none of those had 3 different snows in the RDU/GSO area. 1989 was the last time it was this cold and with 3 snows during this early period.
 
Nomanslandva said:
If anything has fallen here it has evaporated because there is no trace of anything on my wife's car. I guess if one is lucky and gets under one of those heavier bands for a bit it may amount to something measurable. Right now, that good bad may miss me just to the south. View attachment 178783
It does look like it is starting to snow on the mountains west of Salem so it may be here soon?
Click to expand...

Was under a band for about 20 minutes. We have a quarter of an inch I’d say
 
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