Brother. I mean this respectfully. And it sounds cliche as heck because we all say it non stop, but just focus on 7 days out ahead of us for now. I think many are wired to be negative because of past disappointments & rug pulls. You see it run rampant on Twitter.
Welcome aboard.
Why do you keep mentioning models showing warm ups 2 weeks out? You literally were posting the same thing about a mid month warm up just last weekend. There have been multiple posts made and videos posted my pro mets on here explaining why the models, including ensembles, have been having trouble past 7-10 days.
I know there’s alot of other factors, but maybe someone can explain if this is to happen, is it even possible for a SE ridge to appear at all at the end of December? I’m sure the models are going to be playing catchup in this situation just like they have been all fall.
The Euro suite continues to solidly stay in phase 8
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Yeah, there are other factors that could overwhelm the pattern, but I'm not seeing any major changes happening anywhere that would lead me to believe a different outcome should be expected this time. If the MJO does not behave in the way the Euro suite suggests, then that might be a problem. Also, the SPV doesn't look to stay anchored over SE Canada like it's been, so that could be an issue too. But honestly, I don't know if that is really that big of a deal. BAM mentioned it in his video, supporting his case for cool weather in the eastern US. Some of the models move it away, out in time. But again, I don't know if that is really a big deal or not.
Yep. Its easy to bake in this pattern, we may not, but slam dunk cold forecasts are ignoring obvious fail points
Not many. We can almost always bake around here, and there are always any number of small changes can alter the pattern into an unfavorable state. If the MJO turns out to be modeled wrong or the stratosphere becomes uncooperative, then we could have problems. Those are the two biggest flies, IMO.
It's the south what do you expect? People kill me around here Acting like were supposed to Avg 32° and 24" of Snow. Just be Glad you see Cold shots every so often that has the potential to produce a couple inches of snow.
Maybe because the MJO is weakening? It's headed in the circle, even though it's phase 8. So I wouldn't doubt the warmup past mid month is right. Probably hard pressed to find a period longer than 3 or 2 weeks of consistent below average temps around here. And we'll be approaching that 3 week mark just after mid month. A flip is inevitable. Unfortunately it'll be for the holidays most likely. Hopefully it wont last long and we can get another opportunity during peak climo. Not any scientific reasoning behind that. Just what usually happens. I remember New Year's 2011 was close to 70. Right between the Christmas snow and the Jan 2011 event. 2013/2014 had plenty of big warm periods too
Yes last 10 days are a good example of how ee don't bake. We do this in every Nina big pacific into ak ridges, amplitude and axis have a huge impact on the steam pattern with dramatic differences. If the ridge in the west stays where it's modeled in he 5-10 day period we likely end up with late Dec 17 into early Jan 18 cold. Retrograding will cause some type of ridge response in the US and unfortunately that seems most likely right now. The good thing is I personally believe the cold and snow potential pattern comes back after this "break"
The pac jet retraction may be the only thing that's keeping us from an all timer going into Christmas imo, which sucks but them are the breaks. I agree with you we should see momentum added back to the pac jet after Christmas and we will have a decent window to score.
I worry about continuing to play the game of "models are wrong in the long range", even though they are and they have been for a while now. It "feels" like that strategy will ultimately lead to failure, because it usually does. But up till now at least, this has been one of those periods where warm-ups have not materialized on any sort of sustained basis. That's not to say it isn't right around the corner. But so far the positives have overwhelmed the negatives that have popped up. I'm of the mindset to lean into persistence unless there's a really good reason to change it. Not the best forecasting technique, I know, but sometimes it works out pretty well.
