12z Euro cold run also, we just need that trough to dig more. Nice to see the pretty blues backing up though. The more this happens, the more we increase the chances of this not just being cold & dry & squeeze out something out of this.
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
tomorrow will be an elite morning to catch a sunrise along the southern blue ridge escarpment. crystal clear skies with fog across the piedmont banked against the escarpment. not to mention, more than one CAM is keeping this fog/stratus around for so long that high temperatures fall well shy of current forecasts across the upstate and southwestern nc foothills
The high temperature forecast at RDU today is going to be a bust unless some sun breaks through. The high temperature will struggle to reach the lower forties and the mid forties that were forecast look to be out of reach.
The EPO block needs to reorient N/S instead of circular or E/W like it has been. That will allow for a better opportunity to connect with the west coast ridge and spike the entire ridge axis.
THEN, the cold hammer drops, and depending on where the ridge axis sets up, we could potentially be looking at a BIG, very cold winter storm for many.
Someone with far more skills than this old geezer should do a deep dive when all this is over, on why all of the ensembles have repeatedly had to correct the Eastern US troughing time and time again in this pattern. I don't recall this much long-wave variance at the 7-10 day lead times, ever.
Makeitsnow
Member
Ffc had a lot of us getting to 50 but everyone is stuck at 45 or 46 and satellites shows plenty of cloud cover so bust here is likely too.
Avalanche
Member
Happy for the rain we got at the coast. Now looking forward to the next
The way they do a neutral color like green to represent a -9 departure from normal is intentional. Bothers me
Nice strat weakening shown associated with the upcoming stretching / reflection event. Should feed right into reinforcing the idea of N Pacific ridging and cold dropping east of the Rockies post said weakening. We shall see
Highest US snow-cover as of Dec 5th 2003-25 (%)(2003-24 avg 27%):
‘05 48
‘25 45
‘18 43
‘10 39
‘13 38
‘19 37
‘06 33
‘16 32
But more importantly for E US cold prospects is the Midwest snowcover: highest % as of Dec 5th (2003-24 avg 12%):
‘25 65
‘05 45
‘18 32
‘06 31
‘10 27
‘16 25
‘03 23
‘08 20
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
‘05 48
‘25 45
‘18 43
‘10 39
‘13 38
‘19 37
‘06 33
‘16 32
But more importantly for E US cold prospects is the Midwest snowcover: highest % as of Dec 5th (2003-24 avg 12%):
‘25 65
‘05 45
‘18 32
‘06 31
‘10 27
‘16 25
‘03 23
‘08 20
National Snow Analyses - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information
NBAcentel
Member
Honestly very happy with that dec outlook I made back in oct so far, gonna have a jan one soon, and it’ll probably be warmer, probably gonna see the MJO move to the IO/MC mid-late jan 
EURO MJO is a tick less lovely than yesterday's epic run. Both indices still look good, though.
Bigedd09
Member
Wen torch
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@Rain Cold Did you mean VA fantasy storms?
Wen torch
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lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
When CA is dry in winter its usually cold and wet in the east
Spann starting to notice.
BamWx- For January Temps, all of East BN and Great Lakes to Va/NC is Much BN
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ducketta27
Member
Give me an NC snow next weekend
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And for what its worth, ocean temperatures in Horry/Brunswick/New Hanover counties are running about 4 degrees below average for this date. It matters for us coastal people when thinking about winter weather. Even a degree or two cooler influence off the ocean can mean a huge dump like we saw in January or rain.
NBAcentel
Member
AIFS ens has been shifting the trough axis west with a taller western ridge axis, and boy is it working wonders 
Now your speaking our language.
NBAcentel
Member
Pretty close!
Crazy foggy already this evening across much of the region
I know I’m late to the party but, yoink. And it’s honestly a few tweaks away up the west coast and north of AK with that ridge from being even more impressive 
Here is a loop for the AI of just the change from its previous run....colder on each panel for days 9-15
Same here with a dense fog advisory just issued. Temp has dropped to 34. Wouldn’t be suprised to start seeing some advisories issued freezing fog north and west of I-85
Small thing I’m watching for tomorrow in the Atlanta area. NWS has the city getting well into the 50’s but the HRRR and NAM are running about 10 degrees colder and keep most of the metro in the low 40’s all day. I presume due to thicker cloud cover and a bit of a wedge. Nothing major but could be the difference between another raw chilly day and the warmest day we’ve had all week.
Xlhunter3
Member
KRAH Freezing Fog Advisory #1
Orange, Durham, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Forsyth, Guilford, Alamance
Brent
Member
Same thing happened here today... Was supposed to be in the 50s and most places stayed below 45
Some places the fog never broke even
And it's always been colder tomorrow
I don't think we've had one day even near normal this month yet
cams have stayed considerably cooler than other guidance around here with lingering fog/clouds. Very interested to see how it goes, some big bust potential on temps if they score a coup here. I’m always skeptical of NAM showing these solutions though considering it struggles to mix correctly
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Still falling here. Down to 34.7 - how low will it go?
There's a bit of a lee side trough with sort of a backdoor front pushing into NE Georgia. I think there is a small chance of some token flakes into the NE burbs. Probably just a touch too warm, but worth the curiosity nevertheless.
Same here. Can't go much lower since we're saturated, but have a scrapper ready if you need the car in the AM.