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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

For the twelve 6”+ RDU storms since MJO records started, here are the MJO phases with the largest # of these storms:

-3: 3.5 28.2”
-8: 2.5 16.8”
-5: 2 13.2”
-1: 1.5 23.7”
-7: 1 10.8”
-4: 1 5.9”
-2: 0.5 9.0”
-6: 0 0.0”

MJO amplitude:
Weak: 63.9” (on or inside circle)
Mod 37.8” (1-2 amp)
Strong 5.9” (2+ amp)

-The MJO is progged to be weak phase 8 Dec 8-9th

-All of the 6”+ RDU snows during phases 8, 1, and 2 were when the MJO was inside the circle.

-Phase 3 leading may seem counterintuitive but it’s not when considering that 3 of the 3.5 phase 3 storms were during Feb or Mar, when phase 3 is one of the coldest phases:

 
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Georgia Weather History for December 3rd​

In 1886, a great snowstorm dumped up to 42 inches of snow in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Twenty-five inches fell at Rome, GA.

In 1971, a major winter storm hit the northern half of Georgia. Up to 8 inches of snow fell across the northeast corner of the state with a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain falling elsewhere as far south as Macon. Nearly 3 inches of sleet fell in Athens. Most north Georgia schools were closed. The accumulation of ice caused numerous chicken houses, carports and sheds to collapse. Two people were injured in Oglethorpe County when their carport fell on them.

In 1983, a severe thunderstorm brought high winds and four tornadoes to parts of north Georgia. One F-0 tornado occurred in Oglethorpe County destroying a double-wide mobile home near Enterprise. Two F-1 tornadoes touched down in Cherokee and Paulding Counties. An F-2 tornado touched down in Fulton County in the Fulton Industrial Park area destroying one warehouse and heavily damaging others.
 
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Good to see the GFS and Canadian both showing a potential storm. Just want to see the potential is there now and then see how totals work out as we get closer.
 
Mitch West said:
Man what extreme consistency.
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That’s why I typically strongly prefer the trends of ensemble means for that far out (day 10+) over often jumpy operational runs. And even the ensemble means are sometimes jumpy and even clueless in retrospect. For example, consider the upcoming -NAO/-AO next week. Just 5 days ago, even the ensemble means had +NAO/+AO for next week!
 
GaWx said:
That’s why I typically strongly prefer the trends of ensemble means for that far out (day 10+) over often jumpy operational runs. And even the ensemble means are sometimes jumpy and even clueless in retrospect. For example, consider the upcoming -NAO/-AO next week. Just 5 days ago, even the ensemble means had +NAO/+AO for next week!
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oh yeh I know. Just trips me out
 
NCSNOW said:
Canadian over the next 138 hours. And its still going. Biggest takeaway is how close , almost exact Canadian an GFS are for Monday

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The 12Z Euro has an off the coast low on 12/8 but it’s significantly too warm for snow per 850s and dry over much of NC outside of far SE part of the state.

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