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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

this Convective setup almost matches what we had the end of last February when it comes to temps/thermodynamics looking back at that thread
 
Looks like I’ll be watching that rain snow line come all the way down to us but we run out of moisture before we get in on it... hoping for some back end flurries ... I know I will be disappointed but it’s trended at least to this point positively ?? If that can even be the word to describe it .. I guess all we can hope for is more moisture than what models are seeing and a crash of temperatures a little quicker .. and maybe an upper low surprise convection? .. the usuals
 
Hrrr still showing some rather impressive convection tomorrow, around CLT it’s less unstable and there’s slightly higher dewpoint spreads, but it’s also cooler and wet bulb temps are better, which makes it easier for graupel/snow pellets to make it to the surface E8949BB5-0333-4B21-BFD5-35400ECA3446.jpeg0C3B671D-A8F7-4C02-8162-7DC66D18EEC8.png in SC, while sfc temps are higher (upper 40s/low 50s), there’s more cape and better dewpoints for convection, so this allows deeper convection/stronger updrafts and a shot at some graupel there 53476BD2-1230-4EDD-B66E-D2E32D1CF393.jpegAE492DBC-8820-4898-93A2-7A015E20C4C5.png
 
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