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Severe December 28th -new years possible severe weather event.

Zander98al said:
True, Hrrr shows some nasty supercells in a few hours. Wonder if a mesoscale discussion will pop up soon.
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I think I found the reason. While helicity is on the lower side, the models are getting sbcape to near 3000 with 3km Cape 150-200 with monster low level lapse rates. Basically compensating the low helicity. I’m still not convinced, but this should be interesting

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Arcc said:
I think I found the reason. While helicity is on the lower side, the models are getting sbcape to near 3000 with 3km Cape 150-200 with monster low level lapse rates. Basically compensating the low helicity. I’m still not convinced, but this should be interesting

View attachment 99899
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Watch there be a mini tornado outbreak today rather than yesterday ? lol
 
Another thing to consider is the UH products are 2-5km. So because of the robust updrafts, we may see some very strong signatures aloft, yet never or rarely reach the surface due to the very meager low level helicity.
 
Arcc said:
Another thing to consider is the UH products are 2-5km. So because of the robust updrafts, we may see some very strong signatures aloft, yet never or rarely reach the surface due to the very meager low level helicity.
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Cell near Canton is rapidly starting to gain strength and rotate. Our answer may be here.
 
Johnkittz said:
Reed timmer did a briefing. Just a low end tornado threat. He's targeting mid alabama I think then hes surveying the calera damage.
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Weather is weird sometimes. I've seen little days produce big lol. Don't expect much today but, we might be surprised.
 
Zander98al said:
Weather is weird sometimes. I've seen little days produce big lol. Don't expect much today but, we might be surprised.
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I'm not very "weather smart" so I usually go by what the professionals say lol. Reed is a go to. He seems to understand mother nature quite well. You are right though, mother nature is mother nature, shes hard to predict.
 
This cells lighting has picked up a bunch. Rotation is becoming more defined. Very good structure. Screenshot_20211230-094038.pngScreenshot_20211230-094031.png
 
Looks like the rotation is tight. But on the weaker side for the calera storm. Developing a hook and continuing to get stronger. Best storm on radar right now.Screenshot_20211230-094644.pngScreenshot_20211230-094658.png
 
Tornado warning is needed near calera storm. Definitely tight rotation.
 
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