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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

I’m not saying this because I think it’s gonna snow in our area, but the hrrr poofs the precip at go time (hour 1), which obviously isn’t happening. Looking at prior HRRR runs (12-15z) they seem to be handling the stuff across TN/AL/MS and NW GA the best so far, and look pretty close to current radar, Vs the newer runs which dry everything up for some odd reason at hour 1
For ex the newer run for now DCC39948-AEDE-42AF-A3C8-A4740CD84945.png
The older run for now 0E02FF43-6111-41B8-9D9B-CAEEA2493936.png
Radar 1A221121-A507-4C84-B7A1-8D26A8DB9ABB.jpeg9912D692-EB76-4B84-9E46-CBA89FE4C537.png991CF5FD-EA91-435B-A5F8-3734D9CCCF26.pngD98527E0-6D2A-4987-B9E4-65FD9111649B.png
14z HRRR seems like it’s the best run so far for current obs
 
I’m not saying this because I think it’s gonna snow in our area, but the hrrr poofs the precip at go time (hour 1), which obviously isn’t happening. Looking at prior HRRR runs (12-15z) they seem to be handling the stuff across TN/AL/MS and NW GA the best so far, and look pretty close to current radar, Vs the newer runs which dry everything up for some odd reason at hour 1
Agree its really struggling in my opinion. I guess we roll with now casting now
 
There’s actually redevelopment across central/eastern Tennessee right now. Models are busting bigly
Radar seems to be blossoming back in eastern Arky as well. Probably just my imagination but vapor loop has the appearance of the trough tilting more toward neutral as well.
 
Radar seems to be blossoming back in eastern Arky as well. Probably just my imagination but vapor loop has the appearance of the trough tilting more toward neutral as well.
It has. This is right along the cold front. It'll be interesting if this keeps up. It sure does look like a feature that will affect Tennessee and extreme N. Mississippi and Alabama through the evening.
 
There’s actually redevelopment across central/eastern Tennessee right now. Models are busting bigly
Yeah… I’m assuming that there’s some poor data going in that’s causing these short range Hi-res models to be so far off right after initializing. I’m not saying that it will translate east, but as a I said last night, typically when clippers produce east of the mountains in NC you see it produce first in northeast GA.
 
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