Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

[$alt]

Models probably trying to over account for the dry air. Slight changes in energy bundling and tilt make a big difference.

2m dewpoint and 700mb rel humidity maps are going to be best here.

 

[Oconeexman]

High thin cloud deck working in here at 19 deg..it's gonna be a raw one today. Not sure if we get above freezing today either

 

[EmersonGA]

Has that snow look here if nothing else. 20/16 with a solid gray deck.

 

[DadOfJax]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

 

[$alt]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

I've been without internet for a while and the phone sucks, but I'm willing to bet if moisture gets in the dgz in any substantial amount, there will be some surprises. Especially if we can get more swesterly winds feeding in to whatever energy ends up being

Does anyone have any hires frontogenesis maps and if so did anything stand out?

 

[Loganville Winter]

If you aren’t under a heavy band, you can forget about it. Super dry air is going to be hard to overcome with such light precip.

Agreed! This could be one of those scenarios where somebody gets half an inch and 10 minutes away they get nothing.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Does anyone have some ground truth from NW Mississippi?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Does anyone have some ground truth from NW Mississippi?

 

[Oconeexman]

I've been without internet for a while and the phone sucks, but I'm willing to bet if moisture gets in the dgz in any substantial amount, there will be some surprises. Especially if we can get more swesterly winds feeding in to whatever energy ends up being

Does anyone have any hires frontogenesis maps and if so did anything stand out?

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Sun’s blazing here in Decatur…climbed up 12 degrees since an early morning low of 17. We’ll see what happens later, but I’m sensing a nothing burger

 

[DopplerWx]

Hrrr trying

 

[NoSnowATL]

Sun’s blazing here in Decatur…climbed up 12 degrees since an early morning low of 17. We’ll see what happens later, but I’m sensing a nothing burger

Might see some flurries later today as that clipper comes in. That’s a win for most. Looks like it will be after dark so leave the floodlights on.

 

[malak05]

Fun day ahead for parts of AL and GA. Models are stuggling and have not pinned down of had a good idea of the moisture and signs of a over performing system out west. I know this is from a clipper but we seen other overrunning events etc exceed models

 

[jeremyt]

Couple of thoughts/questions. I know the NAM is touted for being the best short term/length model but hasn’t it struggled recently, where the HRR has been better? Also the dry air is real and overcoming it will eat a way at some moisture but how much to overcome? Not really a IMBY deal as I think the best my area would see is maybe, “maybe” a short period of flurries but doesn’t this have the potential still to overperform for areas of NE GA and upstate SC?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why is the hrrr initializing right hour 0 then hour 1 loses half of the returns lol

 

[Oconeexman]

Those dew point differences are pretty wild

 

[Oconeexman]

Why is the hrrr initializing right hour 0 then hour 1 loses half of the returns lolView attachment 128626View attachment 128627

Huh as in that's wonky

 

[DadOfJax]

Fun day ahead for parts of AL and GA. Models are stuggling and have not pinned down of had a good idea of the moisture and signs of an over performing system out west. I know this is from a clipper but we seen other overrunning events etc exceed models

Overrunning vs Clipper….nowhere near the same potential for busts

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much beefier hrrr run

 

[Flotown]

temp easing up,worried if we get precip might be rain..lol