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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

Yes, so far WTVD and NBC-17 mention the possibility of wrap around snow showers, however, for now anyway it appears less likely than two days ago. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


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Will be interesting to see how the 12z runs look . Ensembles are trending far less aggressive for the mid south Thu/Fri
 
Anomalous cold core dropping in behind an arctic front will produce snow showers and flurries in many locals. Nope not the great winter storm we once had hoped (although don't rule out that sneaky piece of energy/potential coastal after Christmas just yet) but it will feel like Christmas. And I think many will at least see a few flakes fly, could be worse.
 
metwannabe said:
Anomalous cold core dropping in behind an arctic front will produce snow showers and flurries in many locals. Nope not the great winter storm we once had hoped (although don't rule out that sneaky piece of energy/potential coastal after Christmas just yet) but it will feel like Christmas. And I think many will at least see a few flakes fly, could be worse.
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Yep, this plus the stuff I've been talking about with potential enhancement from both the great lakes and some local NC lakes, I feel like there could be a lot of places in NC that get flizzards.

Other than that I've been looking at the models this morning and some of them have borderline extreme wind gusts for a lot of NC during the day, windchills could be brutal.

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This Tuesday threat could go poof anytime, but it definitely reminds me of the February 16, 2015 overperformer. This is the exact kind of setup we get where CAD can overperform modeled output. A Cold but stale airmass already in place /insitu wedge and a weak wave. With that 2015 event models were a little off on dewpoints the day of and the Upstate wound up bottoming out at 27 degrees with an inch of sleet and 1/10th of freezing rain. All of the short range models has us bottoming out at 32 or 33 the day before. The globals had us bottoming out in the mid 30's.

Edit to add: Won't matter if we don't get precip though... let's hope the trends continue in that regard.
 
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rburrel2 said:
This Tuesday threat could go poof anytime, but it definitely reminds me of the February 16, 2015 overperformer. This is the exact kind of setup we get where CAD can overperform modeled output. A Cold but stale airmass already in place /insitu wedge and a weak wave. With that 2015 event models were a little off on dewpoints the day of and the Upstate wound up bottoming out at 27 degrees with an inch of sleet and 1/10th of freezing rain. All of the short range models has us bottoming out at 32 or 33 the day before. The globals had us bottoming out in the mid 30's.

Edit to add: Won't matter if we don't get precip though... let's hope the trends continue in that regard.
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Fwiw, 12z NAM/RGEM were cooler in the CAD regions Tuesday, but like you said it won’t matter much if the precipitation isn’t there at the right time to lock it in.
 
The storm is in NAM range up here. Here comes the finger of precip out in front!1E36422C-4443-4EC6-ACF7-10ADE717CB3B.png
 
Icon has highs in the single digits and teens west of the apps and highs in the low 20s/upper teens east of the apps on Friday. Super impressive airmass. It looked like the icon setup a taller western ridge so it was dumping more cold the end of the run….
 
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