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Pattern December 2023

Wow look at the nights.
Yep. So when you see those huge maps showing the departure from normal, you know these numbers aren't factored in, its all the KATL's and RDU's, and when you factor in one average temperature that calculates off those isolated absurdly high lows, we have lots of orange and red maps.
 
How many days in the 60s? I made a post yesterday about how the standard deviation was low. I've only had two highs below 50 and 7 days below freezing this month. My highest has only been 65.8F though.
DCA is 53.0/37.2 so a 5 degree difference at night with IAD. Less than i expected.
 
DCA is 53.0/37.2 so a 5 degree difference at night with IAD. Less than i expected.
IAD probably has enough concrete and air traffic to keep it up some.
 
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The Silver line metro goes there now as well. All the way past IAD. My mom grew up on a farm in Ashburn. Just a completely different world today.
 
Thats like saying KATL hasn't gotten below 29F.

Fulton County Airport, a mere 5 miles away from KATL has been 23F. KPDK has also been 23F. Its easy to throw out the outlier, but we have narratives to keep.
Yes, but I’m comparing RDU climo against itself. No doubt MBY has gotten colder, too, but still 27 is not very cold for the min temp for a winter month at RDU. Even Fayettenam had gotten down lower to 26! RDU has had a warm December, well over 5F above normal for the month, much worse than GSO or FAY.
 
You could at least count on the highs being somewhat right, even that is out of bounds now. I was sending them screenshots of what the station was doing between 3-5 PM in the summer months and they basically told me to shove it. The station is above 5 runways, how that can be taken as seriously is beyond my comprehension, but then you take politics into the equation, and its hard to rule it out.
If you take readings from the Atlanta airport during high traffic periods, it's like having kerosene heaters going full blast all around you. If the winds are still, it's going to raise the temperature from that alone. Take in to consideration all of the concrete and asphalt in the area and the real surprise is why KATL is not reading considerably higher than it is. Elevation has something to do with it, too. They sit at about 1,025 ft ASL I believe. A lot of the surrounding sites are lower, 850 to 950 ft ASL. KFFC is in a valley surrounded by trees, a large lake and white TPO roofing. It's gonna get cold when it can radiate on still nights. KPDK is where they should take the readings for ATL. Even driving 2 miles away from the airport will drop the temp about 5 degrees in the morning. I commute right by there and have witnessed it many times.
 
If you take readings from the Atlanta airport during high traffic periods, it's like having kerosene heaters going full blast all around you. If the winds are still, it's going to raise the temperature from that alone. Take in to consideration all of the concrete and asphalt in the area and the real surprise is why KATL is not reading considerably higher than it is. Elevation has something to do with it, too. They sit at about 1,025 ft ASL I believe. A lot of the surrounding sites are lower, 850 to 950 ft ASL. KFFC is in a valley surrounded by trees, a large lake and white TPO roofing. It's gonna get cold when it can radiate on still nights. KPDK is where they should take the readings for ATL. Even driving 2 miles away from the airport will drop the temp about 5 degrees in the morning. I commute right by there and have witnessed it many times.

As proven by Fulton County Airport's readings, just a few miles away.
 
Yes, but I’m comparing RDU climo against itself. No doubt MBY has gotten colder, too, but still 27 is not very cold for the min temp for a winter month at RDU. Even Fayettenam had gotten down lower to 26! RDU has had a warm December, well over 5F above normal for the month, much worse than GSO or FAY.
I completely understand, but its the same thing with KATL. RDU has grown substantially in air traffic and overall traffic over the past decade, have they not? Delta has a small hub there now I believe.
 
Yes, but I’m comparing RDU climo against itself. No doubt MBY has gotten colder, too, but still 27 is not very cold for the min temp for a winter month at RDU. Even Fayettenam had gotten down lower to 26! RDU has had a warm December, well over 5F above normal for the month, much worse than GSO or FAY.
I have noticed the RDU temp being higher than Sanford, RM, Wilson, Smithfield, etc. over recent years. Now Fayetteville from time to time will be colder in the evenings. I can remember when this was strictly a north/northwest deal with respect to temp drops after sundown. Nothing east nor south of the Triangle was ever colder unless an unusual weather anomaly. The Triangle really has become a metro heat island more so now and did not used to be.
 
Tiny snow flakes here. This is the wave headed to the east tomorrow
So you're getting snow falling when the HRRR's sounding says it should be rain and there is no output on the map. I'm guessing your temps are in the upper 30's right now? I suspect that the soundings are not going to be reliable for conditions within the 534 DM line. Your thickness should be at about 528 now and that lowest thickness does translate east, but fills to about 534 by the time it's over GA.
 
So you're getting snow falling when the HRRR's sounding says it should be rain and there is no output on the map. I'm guessing your temps are in the upper 30's right now? I suspect that the soundings are not going to be reliable for conditions within the 534 DM line. Your thickness should be at about 528 now and that lowest thickness does translate east, but fills to about 534 by the time it's over GA.

Didn't last long here unfortunately

Very tiny flakes
 
I have noticed the RDU temp being higher than Sanford, RM, Wilson, Smithfield, etc. over recent years. Now Fayetteville from time to time will be colder in the evenings. I can remember when this was strictly a north/northwest deal with respect to temp drops after sundown. Nothing east nor south of the Triangle was ever colder unless an unusual weather anomaly. The Triangle really has become a metro heat island more so now and did not used to be.

It's the huge differences in soil with sandy soil drying out much faster and loses heat way faster than clay.


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I’m not certain we’ll see any flurries/snow showers tomorrow here, but temperatures are dropping quickly. It was around 53 just three hours ago….the dew point has been fairly steady.

41/28
 
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I’m not certain we’ll see any flurries/snow showers tomorrow here, but temperatures are dropping quickly. It was around 53 just three hours ago….the dew point has been fairly steady.

41/28
Clear skies and dry air above will do that. When clouds move in early morning, it will be interesting. 850s are around -2 Celsious, so that should help keep temps down.
 
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I’m not certain we’ll see any flurries/snow showers tomorrow here, but temperatures are dropping quickly. It was around 53 just three hours ago….the dew point has been fairly steady.

41/28
Down to 33 back home already. I’m sure I’ll see something given I’m not home. Maybe it will be enough to see through the cameras.
 
A lot of what I looked at showed 0 moisture in the dgZ. Virga flurries!
 
Down to 33 back home already. I’m sure I’ll see something given I’m not home. Maybe it will be enough to see through the cameras.
Temps are falling pretty quickly. I'm only 38.7F here, but there is a stiff northwest wind, mostly cloudy.
 
On drive over from Jasper, GA to Rome, GA, this morning around 7 am, ran through some heavy flurries on the west end of Pickens Co heading into Gordon Co. Car thermometer was reading 36 and nothing sticking to roads. Ended as I came down in elevation into Fairmount. Partly cloudy in Rome at 8:45 am. Temp 40 in Rome at the moment.
 
Yesterday December 28th, the pattern flipped as was advertised from 10+ days ago. It flipped back to normal, which is highs upper 40s lows upper 20s here. Nice to see the rim ice and guns blowing up on the slopes. They are gonna be in great shape here on out. Will get some natural help from mother nature several times over next 10 days. We should get into an even better pattern later January ,February is whats being advertised by everyone. Had over 8 inches qpf December. If MBY can just get half that in Jan other half Feb, should be able to nail down a big dog or 2 frozen. Time will tell.
 
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