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Pattern December 2023

First 18z NAM'ing of the winter for Atlanta lol
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Packfan98 we are sitting on 1.6 as it continues to pour. Over 7 inches for the month of December, probably be well north of 8 inches by tommorow evening.
 
1.73 so far and 7.1 for the month. Was a decent dry spell and had been running 4" below avg and about 6" below last year, now over 50" for the year. Above avg. I'm a broken record but it's always feast or famine, every month is either less than 2" or 5" and above never in between
 
severestorm said:
Northwest Flow Snow alert!

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Are the models still showing a NW Flow event for Friday? And if so, do these typically extend to locations like Grandfather Mountain? Thinking of taking kids to the mountains for a hike that is accessible with the Parkway being closed.
 
Corey Ford said:
Are the models still showing a NW Flow event for Friday? And if so, do these typically extend to locations like Grandfather Mountain? Thinking of taking kids to the mountains for a hike that is accessible with the Parkway being closed.
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Any nw flow and grandfather will cash in. Same for sugar,beech. 5,000 + peaks sitting in far nw nc. Good as it gets with nwfs events
 
Corey Ford said:
Are the models still showing a NW Flow event for Friday? And if so, do these typically extend to locations like Grandfather Mountain? Thinking of taking kids to the mountains for a hike that is accessible with the Parkway being closed.
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If the parkway is closed, grandfather is likely to also be closed
 
Corey Ford said:
Was concerned about that too, but their website shows them open as I think you can access off 221.

But do we think the NW flow will still happen on Friday?
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I would think it’s likely to happen but I’m not honestly qualified. I can say though that they usually close the park as almost all of the attractions are above 4k feet and the road going up is sketchy if it’s snowing.
 
SD said:
If I lived in TN, AL, GA I'd be rooting hard for the 3k NAM right now
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Yeah, it paints a nice picture. I think pretty much everyone north of I-20 ought to see at least some flakes flying. Precip rates look kinda weak though and we'll be fighting above freezing temps below about 1,500' in elevation, so unfortunately looking very doubtful any accumulation outside the plateau and mountains.
 
cyclogent said:
Yeah, it paints a nice picture. I think pretty much everyone north of I-20 ought to see at least some flakes flying. Precip rates look kinda weak though and we'll be fighting above freezing temps below about 1,500' in elevation, so unfortunately looking very doubtful any accumulation outside the plateau and mountains.
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Skew-t's show saturated layers below 10k ft but the output maps don't show precip. Column looks cold, down to around 1,300 ft. Not sure if them tiny flakes can make it the last quarter mile as frozen, though. At least in my area. 06z on Saturday looks like the best shot at seeing something if it happens.

I'll be watching trends Friday pm. Any signs of snow up stream will have me peering out the window into the flood lights. It's a sick obsession, I know....
 
cyclogent said:
Yeah, it paints a nice picture. I think pretty much everyone north of I-20 ought to see at least some flakes flying. Precip rates look kinda weak though and we'll be fighting above freezing temps below about 1,500' in elevation, so unfortunately looking very doubtful any accumulation outside the plateau and mountains.
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It will happen since I’ll be in St Simons.
 
weatherfide said:
Does it matter if you are on the lee side of these peaks or is any amount of elevation good enough?
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You get to banner elk, from there west you will be golden. Thats how you get to beech,sugar,grandfather. Watch the forecast next 24 hours. Rays wx usually pins the tale on the donkey up there very well. It will snow banner elk- west before it snows anywhere in SE on nwfs events.
 
I believe we are going to blow by forecast highs today.
 
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MB22 said:
Yep. IAD has only had 8 days this month with highs below 50 and 14 below freezing days.
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How many days in the 60s? I made a post yesterday about how the standard deviation was low. I've only had two highs below 50 and 7 days below freezing this month. My highest has only been 65.8F though.
 
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