Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[scroback]

Latest HRRR pretty much has everything but ZR. Really need these lower Tds to filter in before I buy a ZR threat...although in my experience, we usually get sleet over ZR. The upstream dews are not to shabby though, will let us wetbulb into the 20s if they make it in here soon

 

[Metwannabe]

That's a big uptick in mby. At this point its every man for himself

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Agree and I still feel like from everything I've seen this morning and what I have seen happen in the past I'll be snow for good duration of the storm prior to any changeover.

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[Myfrotho704_]

Oppp, warmer air getting scoured out quick at 925mb

 

[scroback]

1014mb low & 1038 HP 1300

View attachment 8895

Really need that high to slide east soon so the CAD can build in

 

[Fountainguy97]

Our 3km nam has performed HORRIBLY with 850low placement.

Here is an example it’s literally hundreds of miles off.



3km is also very amped. It’s low is 1003 compared to 1007 at 31hrs on hrrr.

I’m not sure we can trust the nam right now.

 

[Jessy89]

Latest HRRR pretty much has everything but ZR. Really need these lower Tds to filter in before I buy a ZR threat...although in my experience, we usually get sleet over ZR. The upstream dews are not to shabby though, will let us wetbulb into the 20s if they make it in here soonView attachment 8902

I’m hugging this model more then the nam. I believe it has a better grasp of cold air for upstate sc

 

[Fountainguy97]

Can somebody remind me what 06z euro showed?

 

[scroback]

So if you're hating on the NAM, here's a win for you. This was the yesterday's 12z NAM, valid 14z today, along with the Analysis. 850 0c's are about 50 miles south than forecast. However, this may only have implications during the onset of the precip (but that very well may be where 80% of accumulations come from during this storm

 

[Meteorologist1999]

1038 in Ohio now. Wow wedge really starting to dive south.

 

[Jessy89]

Can it snow with upper level and mid level temps at 1-2 degrees C or does it have to be 0

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12z NAM Went in the wrong direction

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Actually temp wise this run seemed like a step back in the right direction. Imo

 

[DadOfJax]

Did y’all go to Joey’s pancake house this a.m.?

Here now!

 

[Metwannabe]

Actually temp wise this run seemed like a step back in the right direction. Imo

Yeah tbh I did the wrong thing, didn't have time to look at details and just looked at RC's la kucaracha map and posted that Lol

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[BHS1975]

Breeze starting to pick up here in Durham.


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[SimeonNC]

Should I be worried about surface temps?

 

[Metwannabe]

Takes a look at scroback's hrrrrrrrrr maps and almost passes out.... I want to believe.
Btw DP down to 27 here, being the NE most member this will be good benchmark for my friends to my SW

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[cyclogent]

Fwiw, our low was 40 here vs a forecast of 36. We may end up wetbulbing down to 38.5 but, still, 2.5 warmer is a huge miss in a saturated environment. Not the best sign further east.

 

[Metwannabe]

Should I be worried about surface temps?

Personally I think your surface temps will be fine, it will be mid level temps and subsequent p-types that would be a bigger concern

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[1300m]

Our 3km nam has performed HORRIBLY with 850low placement.

Here is an example it’s literally hundreds of miles off.

View attachment 8905

3km is also very amped. It’s low is 1003 compared to 1007 at 31hrs on hrrr.

I’m not sure we can trust the nam right now.

Great post. IMO if the warm nose is more prominent than expected by NWS, myself, Euro, FV3, GFS, HRRR it's just blind luck. The model has displayed zero skill with this system since it's genesis in TX/OK.

 

[Brick Tamland]