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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

FV3 looks similar to Friday's 12z
 
Oh boy, if map creation was up to weenieism, I'd let Greg Fishel come in here and make the thread. Doesn't matter who starts it, what matters is that current FV3 map ends it. :)
 
Leggo. Good model agreement with a large lead time. Not sure how I feel about it. This is rarified air
 
GFS has temps in the mid-20's with a solid snow sounding here at the height of the storm. Snow ratios will be high during this event if the model is right.
gfs_2018120212_168_35.5--81.5.png
 
Avalanche said:
With some maps showing this thing going negative tilt in SC, I would highly doubt that run of the FV3.
Click to expand...
I’m not a met, but going negative tilt can be a great thing in winter storms depending on when it happens. There is often significant strengthening and the low starts moving more northerly.
 
Biggest difference between miller "A's" vs. miller "B's" aside from the track is the distribution of the winter precip. Miller A's have a sharper line between snow and rain. Miller B's have a wider area of mix to the north of the transfer.
 
If that map shown earlier with this thing wrapping around (tilting) it would eliminate the miller b look that was on the table in earlier runs. Trying to find out if that map was on crack or had any legitimacy.
 
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