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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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ok, so I am going to do some figures here. Dr Fauci says possibly 200000 will die from Covid 19 in the US. A large number no doubt in absolute terms but a very small number of the population. .0611% or less than a 10th of a percent of the population at large, which is 327200000. Or less than 1 person in a 1000.

I'm not try to start an argument, nor get the thread locked and we all have out opinions which each of us in this great country are entitled to, but I'm going to say we need to get back to work and not keep panicking the public. That number, if correct, is extremely low compared to the destruction we are going to see in our society if we keep lockdowns in place across the country for long. We need less, not more. Surgical strikes only in the hard hit areas not shutting down the country. It doesn't work. South Korea has been our role model. A friend of mine's friend lives there. She said they eased the restrictions and now they are moving back towards a lockdown as they are seeing a resurgence. In other words it didn't work. Thier Economy nor ours could keep that pattern up. We need to get back to normal as soon as we can using Dr Fauci advice in consideration of course.

Yes, my job is directly affected so I don't deny that. I think a lot of people, not everyone, who are for total long lasting lockdowns, do not have their pay or jobs directly affected and don't believe the overall Economy will be down longterm.
 
Shaggy said:
I've not found any articles mentioning amputations in Italy, France, Germany so perhaps they recover and avoid the amputations?
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Yeah I'm not even sure where I read about it but I do remember seeing something very similar to what you said
 
tazaroo said:
ok, so I am going to do some figures here. Dr Fauci says possibly 200000 will die from Covid 19 in the US. A large number no doubt in absolute terms but a very small number of the population. .0611% or less than a 10th of a percent of the population at large, which is 327200000. Or less than 1 person in a 1000.

I'm not try to start an argument, nor get the thread locked and we all have out opinions which each of us in this great country are entitled to, but I'm going to say we need to get back to work and not keep panicking the public. That number, if correct, is extremely low compared to the destruction we are going to see in our society if we keep lockdowns in place across the country for long. We need less, not more. Surgical strikes only in the hard hit areas not shutting down the country. It doesn't work. South Korea has been our role model. A friend of mine's friend lives there. She said they eased the restrictions and now they are moving back towards a lockdown as they are seeing a resurgence. In other words it didn't work. Thier Economy nor ours could keep that pattern up. We need to get back to normal as soon as we can using Dr Fauci advice in consideration of course.

Yes, my job is directly affected so I don't deny that. I think a lot of people, not everyone, who are for total long lasting lockdowns, do not have their pay or jobs directly affected and don't believe the overall Economy will be down longterm.
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So for clarification. Are you saying the lockdowns failed and that's why they are seeing resurgence or are you saying the removal of restrictions was a failure?
 
tazaroo said:
ok, so I am going to do some figures here. Dr Fauci says possibly 200000 will die from Covid 19 in the US. A large number no doubt in absolute terms but a very small number of the population. .0611% or less than a 10th of a percent of the population at large, which is 327200000. Or less than 1 person in a 1000.

I'm not try to start an argument, nor get the thread locked and we all have out opinions which each of us in this great country are entitled to, but I'm going to say we need to get back to work and not keep panicking the public. That number, if correct, is extremely low compared to the destruction we are going to see in our society if we keep lockdowns in place across the country for long. We need less, not more. Surgical strikes only in the hard hit areas not shutting down the country. It doesn't work. South Korea has been our role model. A friend of mine's friend lives there. She said they eased the restrictions and now they are moving back towards a lockdown as they are seeing a resurgence. In other words it didn't work. Thier Economy nor ours could keep that pattern up. We need to get back to normal as soon as we can using Dr Fauci advice in consideration of course.

Yes, my job is directly affected so I don't deny that. I think a lot of people, not everyone, who are for total long lasting lockdowns, do not have their pay or jobs directly affected and don't believe the overall Economy will be down longterm.
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I work for myself and support a staff ... my "job" is directly affected and by extension effected ... but so are my folks ... my next year's Christmas bonus to me is going to them ... now ... I'd love to get back to work ... with folks who are well, and frankly not dead ...
 
tazaroo said:
ok, so I am going to do some figures here. Dr Fauci says possibly 200000 will die from Covid 19 in the US. A large number no doubt in absolute terms but a very small number of the population. .0611% or less than a 10th of a percent of the population at large, which is 327200000. Or less than 1 person in a 1000.

I'm not try to start an argument, nor get the thread locked and we all have out opinions which each of us in this great country are entitled to, but I'm going to say we need to get back to work and not keep panicking the public. That number, if correct, is extremely low compared to the destruction we are going to see in our society if we keep lockdowns in place across the country for long. We need less, not more. Surgical strikes only in the hard hit areas not shutting down the country. It doesn't work. South Korea has been our role model. A friend of mine's friend lives there. She said they eased the restrictions and now they are moving back towards a lockdown as they are seeing a resurgence. In other words it didn't work. Thier Economy nor ours could keep that pattern up. We need to get back to normal as soon as we can using Dr Fauci advice in consideration of course.

Yes, my job is directly affected so I don't deny that. I think a lot of people, not everyone, who are for total long lasting lockdowns, do not have their pay or jobs directly affected and don't believe the overall Economy will be down longterm.
Click to expand...
Those numbers are if we continue doing what we are doing now. If we go back you can expect that number to get in the millions, fast.
 
Shaggy said:
So for clarification. Are you saying the lockdowns failed and that's why they are seeing resurgence or are you saying the removal of restrictions was a failure?
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I'm saying the lockdowns only worked I South Korea while they were in place. They had a pretty extreme lockdown. They did work during the lockdown for the virus but they cannot stay in place forever in any country if the country wants to survive. Eventually they have to be relaxed. Complete long lasting lockdowns can't be the best answer.
 
tazaroo said:
I'm saying the lockdowns only worked I South Korea while they were in place. They had a pretty extreme lockdown. They did work during the lockdown for the virus but they cannot stay in place forever in any country if the country wants to survive. Eventually they have to be relaxed. Complete long lasting lockdowns can't be the best answer.
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They might be the only answer. My work is secure and unless I get sick we will continue to operate and the govt is now ordering our products in the fight. I'm not so worried about shut downs because I'm going to work regardless.
 
iGrey_X said:
Those numbers are if we continue doing what we are doing now. If we go back you can expect that number to get in the millions, fast.
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I agree that we should do some surgical strikes and watch it but let most of the country work. Let's don't panic everyone to death with big scary graphs going straight up. Show how many aren't infected in an area. Show how many are recovered that were included in that total infected graph. Show Dr Fauci prediction means 327000000 of us should make it through this. Panic doesn't help us at all. Take things serious in the hard hit areas: NYC, Atlanta, New Orleans etc. I'm not for people dying but I think most of America could be working close to normal using common since. Washing hands, distancing...
 
Lockdowns need to be accompanied with massive increases in detection. Otherwise, I imagine we will either cycle from lockdown to lockdown until a cure is found, or millions will be allowed to die in the name of money, which will cripple the domestic and global economy anyway.

They also need to be implemented on a national level, because by the time New York and Louisiana start to see a drop in cases, it will be raging in Alabama and Missouri, or wherever is next.
 
NC Escarpment said:
Lockdowns need to be accompanied with massive increases in detection. Otherwise, I imagine we will either cycle from lockdown to lockdown until a cure is found, or millions will be allowed to die in the name of money, which will cripple the domestic and global economy anyway.
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Dont know whether to give this post a thumbs up or sad face. It sums up the reality of our situation quite well though.
 
Shaggy said:
They might be the only answer. My work is secure and unless I get sick we will continue to operate and the govt is now ordering our products in the fight. I'm not so worried about shut downs because I'm going to work regardless.
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I understand that and your job sounds ok for now. That's good. A lot of the country will not be in the longterm if we stay locked down. Eventually it will affect us all if our communities lose a lot of stores, theatres, restaurants and plant and small businesses closures. I pray it doesn't come to that and want to stay optimistic.
 
Zero cases in Wilkes. Local Companies are making hand sanitizer and masks. No shortage of supplies. 587ABAE0-FD28-4DB6-A5A4-8A1087D7E1DE.jpeg
 
iGrey_X said:
Those numbers are if we continue doing what we are doing now. If we go back you can expect that number to get in the millions, fast.
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bingo, drop the restrictions and the models show 2 million plus will die. Just here in the US. Then you’re talking close to 1% of the us population dies. You can eventually recover from a depression. Once someone is dead that’s it.
 
iGrey_X said:
Those numbers are if we continue doing what we are doing now. If we go back you can expect that number to get in the millions, fast.
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Nobody knows that. We still don’t know the IFR. We could be looking at much lower death numbers than we think. I prefer to take the realistic approach. Things are very rarely as bad as they seem.
 
People here are saying they have never seen businesses help so much since WW1 in Wilkes. Back then Wilkes was “a go to place”. Now Samaritans warehouse is flying field hospitals to New York City out of North Wilkesboro.
 
LithiaWx said:
bingo, drop the restrictions and the models show 2 million plus will die. Just here in the US. Then you’re talking close to 1% of the us population dies. You can eventually recover from a depression. Once someone is dead that’s it.
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How long did it take us to recover from the last depression and how many died to get us out of it? What was the cost to the world? It took a world war to do it. Are we really willing to take that risk? The world has weapons that could be much more damaging to life on the planet if things get out of hand. We can’t afford to lose the peace because 1% might perish in the next few months. Wouldn’t it be double the pain if we get a depression that takes decades to escape and we still lose the vulnerable we sacrificed so much to save?
 
LithiaWx said:
bingo, drop the restrictions and the models show 2 million plus will die. Just here in the US. Then you’re talking close to 1% of the us population dies. You can eventually recover from a depression. Once someone is dead that’s it.
Click to expand...
weatherfide said:
Nobody knows that. We still don’t know the IFR. We could be looking at much lower death numbers than we think. I prefer to take the realistic approach. Things are very rarely as bad as they seem.
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the people whose judgement we should trust say 2.2 million dead in the US if we do nothing. See the thing is we do know what’s likely to happen based on what actions we choose to take or not.
 
weatherfide said:
How long did it take us to recover from the last depression and how many died to get us out of it? What was the cost to the world? It took a world war to do it. Are we really willing to take that risk? The world has weapons that could be much more damaging to life on the planet if things get out of hand. We can’t afford to lose the peace because 1% might perish in the next few months. Wouldn’t it be double the pain if we get a depression that takes decades to escape and we still lose the vulnerable we sacrificed so much to save?
Click to expand...

recovery from the 1930s depression took about 8-10 years I believe. I don’t really see the connection between the US depression and WWII. One didn’t cause the other it was timing that’s all. The beginning of WWII actually closely coincided with the end of our depression of my memory of history is correct .
 
LithiaWx said:
the people whose judgement we should trust say 2.2 million dead in the US if we do nothing. See the thing is we do know what’s likely to happen based on what actions we choose to take or not.
Click to expand...
I don’t trust them. You can throw your life in their hands but I need more verification than what I’ve seen.
 
LithiaWx said:
recovery from the 1930s depression took about 8-10 years I believe. I don’t really see the connection between the US depression and WWII. One didn’t cause the other it was timing that’s all. The beginning of WWII actually closely coincided with the end of our depression of my memory of history is correct .
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The Great Depression caused the nationalist uprising in Germany that launched hitler to power. All things are related. Without the depression, would hitler have had a platform to win support? Probably not.
 
Bannerdude said:
covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org

This may have been posted already, but if not, it gives a good snapshot of needed vs available beds for each state as you traverse through the "curve"
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Looking at other states then looking at Georgia. Yikes.

However one thing I noticed is that it says the total beds needed today is at 2600 ish yet the total hospitalized are around 670 in georgia.
 
LithiaWx said:
recovery from the 1930s depression took about 8-10 years I believe. I don’t really see the connection between the US depression and WWII. One didn’t cause the other it was timing that’s all. The beginning of WWII actually closely coincided with the end of our depression of my memory of history is correct .
Click to expand...

Actually the US was in the midst of another recession as the First and Second New Deal by FDR hadn’t quite worked the way he had hoped. Roosevelt's second term, which presided over a new dip in the Great Depression in the fall of 1937 continued through most of 1938. Production and profits declined sharply. Unemployment jumped from 14% in May 1937 to 19% in June 1938. The downturn was nothing more than the familiar rhythms of the business cycle, but until 1937, Roosevelt had claimed responsibility for the excellent economic performance (sound familiar?). That backfired in the recession that had kicked in by late 1938/1939. By the time the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, FDR was set to release a new set of plans to speed the economic recovery of the United States. He ended up not having to because of the country’s entry into WWII. War production ramped up and jobs were plentiful. This helped to usher in a political realignment, making the Democratic Party the majority (as well as the party that held the White House for seven out of the nine presidential terms from 1933 to 1969). The only Republican terms in the White House were achieved by the hero of WWII, Dwight D. Eisenhower.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looking at other states then looking at Georgia. Yikes.

However one thing I noticed is that it says the total beds needed today is at 2600 ish yet the total hospitalized are around 670 in georgia.
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Looks like GA and NC are expected to peak (per this model) around Apr 21. NY would peak Apr 7. I wonder why they expect those peaks then and how confident they are? (probably not too confident)
 
The Abbott Lab's 5 to 15 minute tests as they roll out will give a better picture of the scale of infection and correspondingly start to present a better statistical model with more accurate data to determine possible mortality rates.

Once the blood test is ramped it will give yet another underlying data set of those infected and recovered, thus presenting an even clearer picture of mortality rates, given those are still not showing the true picture as underlying contributory conditions aren't currently being considered in the heat of the moment.

The "curve" is very subjective as it really only takes into account a very small segment of the population currently being tested, which in most cases is areas most affected.

As has been shown several times curve charts are skewed if you use them strictly for a single data point, example for number of infected, of course they ramp quickly the more you test or the higher your single data point goes.

As testing rolls out then potential hot spots could be identified earlier and more aggressive preventative measures could possibly be taken.

As more are identified who've been infected and either recovered or never had any symptoms some similarities will be identified thus accelerating current research.

Prayers for all, may God keep and bless us.
 
Made my last trip that's going to be it for sometime. Lots of mask, seen a lady using wad of napkins and a worker wearing a mask with the tip of her mouth sticking out. Good many n95 , yes I wore my mask and gloves eye protection. Store still pretty much picked over. No real meat or chicken
 
Anyone else have any historical info on new virus emergence and why we have now seen 3 with Sars-CoV1, MERS, and now Sars-CoV2 in just the last 20.years? Is this common for so many new viruses to show up from the same family in such short timeframes?

I'm 44 and never remember new viruses popping up like this.
 
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