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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Italy reports 11,705 new cases and 69 new deaths.
UK reports 16,982 new cases and 67 new deaths.
 
Oh crap.



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MichaelJ said:
I wouldn't "spike the ball" just yet NCSNOW, I expect a major breakout shortly after Thanksgiving when colleges send kids home. That being said, if Biden is elected, eliminates the tax cuts AND shuts down the economy again, we are all in deep excrement economically.
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Afraid. Just matter time we start see a serious wave coming further south...
 
I think there isn't much chatter here because we're COVID'd out and honestly, likely 2020'd out as well (outside of making adjustments on what to do in at least some places if you're out and about) unless you're talking something that's really big. But something I've at least talked about in real life (probably here too) is we still have to see what happens in fall and winter. I feel as if the southeast largely survived taking a major shot when we peaked late in the summer and came out looking fine.

My question is what are we going to see as the fall and winter continue. Are we going to manage to remain in neutral? If so, that'll be very good news, and lend credence to the possibility that this virus might just burn out some at a certain percentage.

Of course, I say the above and I know other parts of this country aren't in neutral.
 


“Notably, compared with patients with influenza, patients with COVID-19 had two times the risk for pneumonia, 1.7 times the risk for respiratory failure, 19 times the risk for ARDS, and 3.5 times the risk for pneumothorax, underscoring the severity of COVID-19 respiratory illness relative to that of influenza.”

Median age ~70 and roughly half the patients had either diabetes or heart disease. Still, it’s a significant trial and pretty telling how hard covid-19 is on the lungs.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
My question is what are we going to see as the fall and winter continue. Are we going to manage to remain in neutral? If so, that'll be very good news, and lend credence to the possibility that this virus might just burn out some at a certain percentage.

Of course, I say the above and I know other parts of this country aren't in neutral.
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I have a couple of thoughts about how I think winter will unfold...

Covid cases will go up in every area, but some will be worse off than others (ie states peaking now vs states who has since peaked such as NY)

For example: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina etc.. These states will likely be worse off than others solely due to bad timing. The longer you can hold off super spreading events/clusters the better. It’s a wrong time to trend up right now...and with thanksgiving and Christmas, families will let their guard down and it will have consequences.

However, I think influenza rates will be remarkably low. Over the fear of covid, hand washing, sanitizing, mask wearing and social distancing will keep flu numbers at bay. Not to say it will be non existent but I have a hunch it won’t be a severe season.
 
www.cdc.gov

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

This report describes the estimated excess deaths reported in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with 66% excess deaths attributed to COVID-19.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19.
 
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