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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Jon said:
The US got infected from European travel, we know this from analyzing the genomes of psi to be samples from all over the US . This is why we are peaking later than other countries (ie most of Europe)....This is quite obvious. Now why we are going back up after the initial peak is all due to our response and reopening at the wrong time. We essentially reopened during the peak, not once it had leveled, like many European countries did. We stayed home then got antsy and our poor little free souls couldn’t take it, opened and screwed our selves.
Click to expand...
What is the seed rate needed in a population for the R0 to raise again?

I.e.
What is the threshold % of population infected that if above that threshold the R0 will rise vs being below that threshold the R0 will continue to fall?
 
smast16 said:
What is the seed rate needed in a population for the R0 to raise again?

I.e.
What is the threshold % of population infected that if above that threshold the R0 will rise vs being below that threshold the R0 will continue to fall?
Click to expand...

It’s gotten a lot of air time but R0 is extremely hard to measure especially for a novel virus. It’s going to change with populations and even city to city. With that said I’m not sure but it probably doesn’t even matter, and if the 200 some odd experts are right about aerosol spread, you can forget about accurately measuring the R0 because it would be astronomical.
 
Jon said:
The US got infected from European travel, we know this from analyzing the genomes of psi to be samples from all over the US . This is why we are peaking later than other countries (ie most of Europe)....This is quite obvious. Now why we are going back up after the initial peak is all due to our response and reopening at the wrong time. We essentially reopened during the peak, not once it had leveled, like many European countries did. We stayed home then got antsy and our poor little free souls couldn’t take it, opened and screwed our selves.
Click to expand...

Looks to me based on those charts and how London did vs the other areas, not that we re-opened at the wrong time, but we locked down at the wrong time.

Looks like we are way too large for a country wide lockdown IMO. Looks like we should have locked down as needed instead of out of fear based on area. If the whole 20% seroprevelence is indeed true, much of the country just implemented a smolder instead of a controlled burn which is now burning in the areas not really touched.
 
Arcc said:
Looks to me based on those charts and how London did vs the other areas, not that we re-opened at the wrong time, but we locked down at the wrong time.

Looks like we are way too large for a country wide lockdown IMO. Looks like we should have locked down as needed instead of out of fear based on area. If the whole 20% seroprevelence is indeed true, much of the country just implemented a smolder instead of a controlled burn which is now burning in the areas not really touched.
Click to expand...

In order to look like London you’re assuming that if we waited to lock down that we’d continue to stay closed through America’s favorite holiday and all of summer, and tourist beaches and cities remain closed all summer. We all know the impatience and stubbornness of the American people wouldn’t have allowed a well-timed, later shelter in place order.

What we should have done is close earlier. There’s data to support closing some 1-2 weeks earlier would have helped cut the deaths by something substantial (don’t have the link atm)....Imagine if we closed down and wore masks from the get go like many Asian countries did when faced with such an event. Imagine we had testing capabilities available when they did (ie. South Korea)

Now we are faced with a poorly managed pandemic (however you slice it, ill timed opening/reopening, this blows) and the peak of summer tourism, right as schools are set to reopen with those little cute virus vectors spreading it about.

We are screwed and it’s obvious — it’s not even partisan anymore. I see posts of random screenshots (this isn’t directed to you) trying to hold the narrative that it isn’t bad and data is somehow compromised, but there’s only so much conspiracies can carry you before you’re like oh crap, my family and friends have it now and they’re not doing so hot...maybe it is as bad as they say??
 
Folks, it’s mid July. I was, from an educated point of view, a big proponent of this virus slowing transmission during the summer. Not stopping, but cases easing and plateauing. I thought I was right and nailed that theory up until a couple of weeks ago. It’s literally doing the opposite. It’s doing what I thought it would do by Fall...it’s way ahead of time here. This virus behaves different than literal textbooks say viruses behave. It’s not the flu and will never be the flu. This is a generational event (hopefully) and it’s time people start treating it like one.

I don’t know what the future holds. If the virus looks like this with 95-100F temps, what will it look like aerosolized in low humidity cooler indoor temps during late fall? How effective will the vaccine be? Will enough people even take it for herd immunity (80%)?

PPE is slowly trickling in but it’s still hard to get simple things like thermometers, vinyl gloves, n95 masks, trustworthy sterile hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, Lysol wipes, etc. We wouldn’t need to order KN95 masks online with Chinese stamps on them if hospitals were plenty stocked with n95’s...truth is 3M can’t make masks fast enough and I wonder what winter will bring, more PPE shortage or will China bail us out with KN95 for all of our HCPs?

What will our schools look like if they open? Teachers aren’t kids, they’re 30-50 year olds. They’ll get sick or worse, have to be out of work, what then?

It’s not as simple as opening schools because America rocks! It has deathly consequences and we will likely find that out, while other Asian countries close schools and continue to beat us at the virus game.

(Sorry for the long back to back posts, I post in spurts because work is so busy and keeping my hands sterile means no phone)
 
Jon said:
Folks, it’s mid July. I was, from an educated point of view, a big proponent of this virus slowing transmission during the summer. Not stopping, but cases easing and plateauing. I thought I was right and nailed that theory up until a couple of weeks ago. It’s literally doing the opposite. It’s doing what I thought it would do by Fall...it’s way ahead of time here. This virus behaves different than literal textbooks say viruses behave. It’s not the flu and will never be the flu. This is a generational event (hopefully) and it’s time people start treating it like one.

I don’t know what the future holds. If the virus looks like this with 95-100F temps, what will it look like aerosolized in low humidity cooler indoor temps during late fall? How effective will the vaccine be? Will enough people even take it for herd immunity (80%)?

PPE is slowly trickling in but it’s still hard to get simple things like thermometers, vinyl gloves, n95 masks, trustworthy sterile hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, Lysol wipes, etc. We wouldn’t need to order KN95 masks online with Chinese stamps on them if hospitals were plenty stocked with n95’s...truth is 3M can’t make masks fast enough and I wonder what winter will bring, more PPE shortage or will China bail us out with KN95 for all of our HCPs?

What will our schools look like if they open? Teachers aren’t kids, they’re 30-50 year olds. They’ll get sick or worse, have to be out of work, what then?

It’s not as simple as opening schools because America rocks! It has deathly consequences and we will likely find that out, while other Asian countries close schools and continue to beat us at the virus game.

(Sorry for the long back to back posts, I post in spurts because work is so busy and keeping my hands sterile means no phone)
Click to expand...
I was talking to our Ansell rep today the glove market is dire for at least a year. It's ugly
 
SD said:
I was talking to our Ansell rep today the glove market is dire for at least a year. It's ugly
Click to expand...

We are stocking them up for store use in order to give flu vaccines, hopefully the fed government and local agencies are stockpiling as well but yeah. We used to get #100 high quality gloves for about $1.80-2.39, they’re now close to $6-13 (at wholesale) and that’s if we are lucky. These are vinyl gloves not even nitrile gloves!
 
Jon said:
Folks, it’s mid July. I was, from an educated point of view, a big proponent of this virus slowing transmission during the summer. Not stopping, but cases easing and plateauing. I thought I was right and nailed that theory up until a couple of weeks ago. It’s literally doing the opposite. It’s doing what I thought it would do by Fall...it’s way ahead of time here. This virus behaves different than literal textbooks say viruses behave. It’s not the flu and will never be the flu. This is a generational event (hopefully) and it’s time people start treating it like one.

I don’t know what the future holds. If the virus looks like this with 95-100F temps, what will it look like aerosolized in low humidity cooler indoor temps during late fall? How effective will the vaccine be? Will enough people even take it for herd immunity (80%)?

PPE is slowly trickling in but it’s still hard to get simple things like thermometers, vinyl gloves, n95 masks, trustworthy sterile hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, Lysol wipes, etc. We wouldn’t need to order KN95 masks online with Chinese stamps on them if hospitals were plenty stocked with n95’s...truth is 3M can’t make masks fast enough and I wonder what winter will bring, more PPE shortage or will China bail us out with KN95 for all of our HCPs?

What will our schools look like if they open? Teachers aren’t kids, they’re 30-50 year olds. They’ll get sick or worse, have to be out of work, what then?

It’s not as simple as opening schools because America rocks! It has deathly consequences and we will likely find that out, while other Asian countries close schools and continue to beat us at the virus game.

(Sorry for the long back to back posts, I post in spurts because work is so busy and keeping my hands sterile means no phone)
Click to expand...
Is it possible that maybe just maybe the virus will ease up as it gets colder ? Maybe the heat is causing the virus to be worse ?
 
smast16 said:
What is the seed rate needed in a population for the R0 to raise again?

I.e.
What is
Click to expand...
Jon said:
Folks, it’s mid July. I was, from an educated point of view, a big proponent of this virus slowing transmission during the summer. Not stopping, but cases easing and plateauing. I thought I was right and nailed that theory up until a couple of weeks ago. It’s literally doing the opposite. It’s doing what I thought it would do by Fall...it’s way ahead of time here. This virus behaves different than literal textbooks say viruses behave. It’s not the flu and will never be the flu. This is a generational event (hopefully) and it’s time people start treating it like one.

I don’t know what the future holds. If the virus looks like this with 95-100F temps, what will it look like aerosolized in low humidity cooler indoor temps during late fall? How effective will the vaccine be? Will enough people even take it for herd immunity (80%)?

PPE is slowly trickling in but it’s still hard to get simple things like thermometers, vinyl gloves, n95 masks, trustworthy sterile hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, Lysol wipes, etc. We wouldn’t need to order KN95 masks online with Chinese stamps on them if hospitals were plenty stocked with n95’s...truth is 3M can’t make masks fast enough and I wonder what winter will bring, more PPE shortage or will China bail us out with KN95 for all of our HCPs?

What will our schools look like if they open? Teachers aren’t kids, they’re 30-50 year olds. They’ll get sick or worse, have to be out of work, what then?

It’s not as simple as opening schools because America rocks! It has deathly consequences and we will likely find that out, while other Asian countries close schools and continue to beat us at the virus game.

(Sorry for the long back to back posts, I post in spurts because work is so busy and keeping my hands sterile means no phone)
Click to expand...
Schools will be a ---- show this fall. My daughter (4th grade) is non stop talking about going back... i just don't see it happening unless something miraculous happens.
 
Broken024 said:
Schools will be a poop show this fall. My daughter (4th grade) is non stop talking about going back... i just don't see it happening unless something miraculous happens.
Click to expand...
I'm a former substitute teacher. I saw one of my teacher friends today on a grocery store run. She literally rolled her eyes and wouldn't talk to me anymore after she asked if we sending our boys back to school and I said no. Well the hubby is a diabetic and I see how schools and kids are petri dishes. She was a 1st grade teacher for several years before moving to 6th grade and I swear her tables were only cleaned when she had a sub. I can only imagine how this will spread in her room and around the school
 
Jon said:
We are stocking them up for store use in order to give flu vaccines, hopefully the fed government and local agencies are stockpiling as well but yeah. We used to get #100 high quality gloves for about $1.80-2.39, they’re now close to $6-13 (at wholesale) and that’s if we are lucky. These are vinyl gloves not even nitrile gloves!
Click to expand...
Sounds about right at this point on the open market its hard to find a case of decent quality gloves of any material for less than $75 a master case. Some of our higher end gloves are at or over $200 case now. As long as Malaysian mfgs are leading a bidding war for gloves and counties are paying top dollar prices are going to continue to go up
 
Jon said:
In order to look like London you’re assuming that if we waited to lock down that we’d continue to stay closed through America’s favorite holiday and all of summer, and tourist beaches and cities remain closed all summer. We all know the impatience and stubbornness of the American people wouldn’t have allowed a well-timed, later shelter in place order.

What we should have done is close earlier. There’s data to support closing some 1-2 weeks earlier would have helped cut the deaths by something substantial (don’t have the link atm)....Imagine if we closed down and wore masks from the get go like many Asian countries did when faced with such an event. Imagine we had testing capabilities available when they did (ie. South Korea)

Now we are faced with a poorly managed pandemic (however you slice it, ill timed opening/reopening, this blows) and the peak of summer tourism, right as schools are set to reopen with those little cute virus vectors spreading it about.

We are screwed and it’s obvious — it’s not even partisan anymore. I see posts of random screenshots (this isn’t directed to you) trying to hold the narrative that it isn’t bad and data is somehow compromised, but there’s only so much conspiracies can carry you before you’re like oh crap, my family and friends have it now and they’re not doing so hot...maybe it is as bad as they say??
Click to expand...

To be honest that isn't what that Twitter thread was about. The man implied London was hit way harder before lockdown and thus had the rapid fall in cases vs the surrounding areas which showed the "flatten the curve" look. Of course they also took the major hit as he showed by the antibody chart.

In my opinion looking at their lockdown curve of the areas around London to the US, they lengthened the curve while increasing as they increased testing, ours appeared to have a more significant drop in the middle even though the "look" is the same. It makes sense considering most of the cases are traced back to NY and the places farthest from NY are the places taking the most serious hits right now.
 
Arcc said:
To be honest that isn't what that Twitter thread was about. The man implied London was hit way harder before lockdown and thus had the rapid fall in cases vs the surrounding areas which showed the "flatten the curve" look. Of course they also took the major hit as he showed by the antibody chart.

In my opinion looking at their lockdown curve of the areas around London to the US, they lengthened the curve while increasing as they increased testing, ours appeared to have a more significant drop in the middle even though the "look" is the same. It makes sense considering most of the cases are traced back to NY and the places farthest from NY are the places taking the most serious hits right now.
Click to expand...

Yeah for some reason I quoted the wrong thing. I understood what your posted tweet was showing. We truly may be like London and NYC if every state in the country got introduced with the virus at the same exact time and had the same density and growth as NYC and London did. But we know that’s impossible due to the vastness of the US and the slower rate of introduction, we don’t have the privilege of that simply from a societal and geography standpoint.
 
Jon said:
Yeah for some reason I quoted the wrong thing. I understood what your posted tweet was showing. We truly may be like London and NYC if every state in the country got introduced with the virus at the same exact time and had the same density and growth as NYC and London did. But we know that’s impossible due to the vastness of the US and the slower rate of introduction, we don’t have the privilege of that simply from a societal and geography standpoint.
Click to expand...

Agree completely.
 
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